The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine • Hacker News Board

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#791

Post by mlinhares » Sat, May 31, 2025, 4:37 PM UTC

hoseyor wrote: post #670

autobodie wrote: post #518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keynes lived in a time when the working class was organized and exerting its power over its destiny. We live in a time that the working class is unbelievably brainwashed and manipulated.

He also lived in a time when the intense importance and function of a moral and cultural framework for society was taken for granted. He would have never imagined the level of social and moral degeneration of today. I will not go into specifics because the authoritarians still disagree and think everything is fine with degenerative debauchery and try to abuse anyone even just pointing to failing systems, but it all d…

Oh the prized Asian magic, more civilized, less mixed, the magical place.

Capitalism arrives for everyone, Asia is just late for the party. Once it eventually financializes everything, the same will happen to it. Capitalism eventually eats itself, doesn't matter the language or how many centuries your people might have.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#792

Post by directevolve » Sat, May 31, 2025, 4:41 PM UTC

chrsw wrote: post #762

directevolve wrote: post #551

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We’re already heading toward the sigmoid plateau. The GPT 3 to 4 shift was massive. Nothing since had touched that. I could easily go back to the models I was using 1-2 years ago with little impact on my work. I don’t use RAG, and have no doubt the infrastructure for integrating AI into a large codebase has improved. But the base model powering the whole operation seems stuck.

> I could easily go back to the models I was using 1-2 years ago with little impact on my work. I can't. GPT-4 was useless for me for software development. Claude 4 is not.

Interesting, what type of dev work do you do? Performance does vary widely across languages and domains.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#793

Post by alephnerd » Sat, May 31, 2025, 4:42 PM UTC

sarchertech wrote: post #452

alephnerd wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a monetary issue at the end of the day. AI/ML and Offshoring/GCCs are both side effects of the fact that American new grad salaries in tech are now in the $110-140k range. At $70-80k the math for a new grad works out, but not at almost double that. Also, going remote first during COVID for extended periods proved that operations can work in a remote first manner, so at that point the argument was made that you c…

> by the late 2010s it was getting hard to find new grads who actually understood systems internals and OS/architecture concepts, so a lot of jobs adjacent to those ended up moving abroad to Israel, India, and Eastern Europe where universities still treat CS as engineering instead of an applied math disciple That doesn’t fit my experience at all. The applied math vs engineering continuum is mostly dependent on whethe…

> I certainly haven’t noticed that Indian or Eastern European CS grads have a better understanding of the OS or the underlying hardware.

Absolutely, but that's if they are exposed to these concepts, and that's become less the case beyond maybe a single OS class.

> except that people are more likely to start out programming in higher level languages where they are more insulated from the hardware

I feel that's part of the issue, but also, CS programs in the US are increasingly making computer architecture an optional class. And network specific classes have always been optional.

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Mind you, I am biased towards Cybersecurity, DevOps, DBs, and HPC because that is the industry I've worked on for over a decade now, and it legitimately has become difficult hiring new grads in the US with a "NAND-to-Tetris" mindset because curriculums have moved away from that aside from a couple top programs.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#794

Post by JumpCrisscross » Sat, May 31, 2025, 4:47 PM UTC

immibis wrote: post #786

latchkey wrote: post #782

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TACO

For those unaware, the "TACO trade" is when Wall Street investors trade based on the principle that "Trump Always Chickens Out". For example, buying in a tariff-induced dip on the principle that he'll probably repeal the tariffs. Now that someone's said to Trump's face that Wall Street thinks he always chickens out, he may or may not stop doing it.

> Now that someone's said to Trump's face that Wall Street thinks he always chickens out, he may or may not stop doing it

The point is he’s powerless not to. The alternative is allowing a bond rout to trigger a bank collapse, probably in rural America. He didn’t do the prep that produces actual leverage. (Xi did.)

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#795

Post by JumpCrisscross » Sat, May 31, 2025, 4:51 PM UTC

jameslk wrote: post #512

simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

Keynes suggested that by 2030, we’d be working 15 hour workweeks, with the rest of the time used for leisure. Instead, we chose consumption, and helicopter money gave us bullshit jobs so we could keep buying more bullshit. This is fairly evident by the fact when the helicopter money runs out, all the bullshit jobs get cut. AI may give us more efficiency, but it will be filled with more bullshit jobs and consumption,…

> Keynes suggested that by 2030, we’d be working 15 hour workweeks

Most people with a modest retirement account could retire in their forties to working 15-hour workweeks somewhere in rural America.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#796

Post by hombre_fatal » Sat, May 31, 2025, 4:52 PM UTC

simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

Why would you interpret data cut off at 2020 so that you're just looking at a covid phenomenon? The buttons don't seem to do anything on that site, but why not consider 2010-2025?

That said, the vibe has definitely shifted. I started working in software in uni ~2009 and every job I've had, I'd applied for Though I don't think AI has anything to do with it, probably more the explosion of cheap software labor on the global market, and you have to compete with the whole world for a job in your own city.

Kinda feels like some major part of the gravy train is up.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#797

Post by mempko » Sat, May 31, 2025, 4:53 PM UTC

pydry wrote: post #661

bootsmann wrote: post #634

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Trump didnt kick off the layoffs. It was the war with Russia that drove the fed to raise interest rates in 2022 - a measure that was intended to curb inflation triggered by spikes in the prices of economic inputs (gas, oil, fertilizer, etc.). The tech layoffs started later that year. Widespread job cuts are an intended effect of raising interest rates - more unemployed = less spending = keeps a lid on inflation. AI i…

You are wrong, Trump's 2017 Tax cut bill had a provision that kicked in that caused the layoffs. Engineers became more expensive because now companies had to amortize their costs over 5 years instead of immediately.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#798

Post by darepublic » Sat, May 31, 2025, 4:55 PM UTC

immibis wrote: post #786

latchkey wrote: post #782

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TACO

For those unaware, the "TACO trade" is when Wall Street investors trade based on the principle that "Trump Always Chickens Out". For example, buying in a tariff-induced dip on the principle that he'll probably repeal the tariffs. Now that someone's said to Trump's face that Wall Street thinks he always chickens out, he may or may not stop doing it.

Don't look a gift taco in the mouth

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#799

Post by lbotos » Sat, May 31, 2025, 4:57 PM UTC

hombre_fatal wrote: post #796

simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

Why would you interpret data cut off at 2020 so that you're just looking at a covid phenomenon? The buttons don't seem to do anything on that site, but why not consider 2010-2025? That said, the vibe has definitely shifted. I started working in software in uni ~2009 and every job I've had, I'd applied for Though I don't think AI has anything to do with it, probably more the explosion of cheap software labor on the gl…

It looks like that specific graph only starts in 2020...

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#800

Post by mempko » Sat, May 31, 2025, 4:59 PM UTC

nxm wrote: post #689

pydry wrote: post #661

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump didnt kick off the layoffs. It was the war with Russia that drove the fed to raise interest rates in 2022 - a measure that was intended to curb inflation triggered by spikes in the prices of economic inputs (gas, oil, fertilizer, etc.). The tech layoffs started later that year. Widespread job cuts are an intended effect of raising interest rates - more unemployed = less spending = keeps a lid on inflation. AI i…

2 trillion in unnecessary Covid related spending when Covid impact was winding down was the key reason for inflation. "$2000 checks!" was the campaign slogan

You have it backwards, inflation causes an increase in the money supply. When prices rise, it forces people to take on more debt causing an increase in the money supply. Those 2000 checks actually probably dampened inflation for a short while. Most people used those checks to pay down debt (which destroys money).