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Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

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Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#791

Post by gtech1 »

the_af wrote: post #457
anthomtb wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are in for this ride, at indefinite intervals, for the next 3.75 years. Well, unless congress grows a collective sack (unlikely) or President Trump comes to his senses on macro economics (past experience suggests this is impossible). > How are businesses supposed to plan anything in this environment? They cannot. This is how you can tell Trump was never a real businessman, but rather a TV host and a celebutante. I…

> Well, unless congress grows a collective sack (unlikely) or President Trump comes to his senses on macro economics We in Argentina feel for you: it's exactly the same for us, replacing Trump with Milei. And with the added humiliation of Milei being a lapdog to Trump. This phrase of yours "unless congress grows a sack" is exactly how we feel about our own congress in Argentina.

Wait, so all those stories about Argentina doing better under Milei aren't true ? What's going on over there ?

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#792

Post by probably_wrong »

slg wrote: post #481
magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

Genuinely wondering why so many people are still giving the Trump administration this much benefit of the doubt that their moves are strategically sound? We're really still doing the whole "3D chess" thing with this guy after he has shown over and over again that he mostly just acts on impulse and the primary qualification for his advisors is loyalty over any type of intelligence or expertise?

I don't think that Trump himself is competent, but I'm not be so sure about the people around him. The effort it took to put him above the law was at least a decade in the making, so clearly someone knows what they're doing.

I don't think it's a coincidence, for instance, that Steve Banon's strategy of "flooding the zone" looks exactly as the type of chaos currently coming from the White House.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#793

Post by righthand »

pb7 wrote: post #368
mtremsal wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many EU countries have done the same in recent weeks. This is less about putting diplomatic pressure, and more about warning people to avoid traveling to the US due to real danger.

There is no real danger so this is mostly diplomatic pressure.

The US government has already been rounding people up who haven’t committed a crime. Most notably a student from Columbia college. This is a real danger.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#794

Post by cavisne »

magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

These complex 4D chess strategies never really pan out. Maybe someone in the administration thinks that was the goal but not Trump.

During the campaign Trump said he wanted 10 percent tariffs on the world and 60 percent tariffs on China. After all the noise we are now at… 10 percent tariffs with the world and 125 percent tariffs on China (pending negotiation with China).

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#795

Post by nearbuy »

davidguetta wrote: post #469
compumike wrote: post #305

Is it just the historical legacy of international trade that tariffs apply only to physical goods, but not to something like software-as-a-service subscriptions, digital media, or intellectual property? As the latter categories are more representative of US exports, it would surely be an interesting escalation if other countries were to start including them in their “retaliatory” tariffs.

I still wonder why this was not done instantly by EU. US has an imbalance on goods that was used to calculate the tariff amount, but it has the opposite imbalance on service from what I've read

How would it work?

Say an American multinational like Microsoft provides some SaaS. They have a division in Europe where their developers help make their products. They have offices, customer support, servers, etc. in Europe. Do they pay a partial tariff based on what fraction of the development of their software happened in the US? What if they sell the rights to the European version of their software to their European division?

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#796

Post by arunabha »

I am beginning to wonder if there is an actual plan behind these moves beyond creating uncertainty in trading partner's minds.

The stated goal of the administration is to 'reindustrialize' the US by manufacturing more of the goods consumed within the US itself. To get to that goal, tariff barriers are just one part of the story. For tariffs to be effective towards getting to the strategic goal, they need to be coupled with sound industrial policy and a long term execution framework. The three legs of the stool, so to say.

So far, there has been no mention of the other two legs. There is currently no serious bill proposed that aims to apply the required industrial policy and all of these tariffs being imposed under executive orders mean that instability in tariff rates and application is pretty much guaranteed. The very opposite of the stable, long term approach that is needed.

Without the other parts, there is a very high chance that the US will bear the brunt of the short term damage, but with none of the long term benefits.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#797

Post by partiallypro »

Aurornis wrote: post #517
StormChaser_5 wrote: post #86

It's not like the tariffs are gone. It's still 10% for everyone but China. That only seems small in comparison to what was being proposed before. I wonder will EU and others wait out 90 days while negotiating or match the 10% in kind

> It's still 10% for everyone but China. There's actually some confusion about that. They said they paused the global tariffs but didn't mention the Canada and Mexico tariffs. If the 10% global tariff is in addition to the Canada and Mexico tariffs, the net tariff rate on those countries could be quite high. Combined with 125% tariffs on China and we would have very burdensome tariffs on 3 of our largest trading part…

Mexico and Canada are still at 25% apparently.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#798

Post by amanaplanacanal »

dcow wrote: post #442

I don’t get the outrage. Trump did this with Mexico. He imposed tariffs and then immediately eased them when Mexico started negotiating. It worked . Wouldn’t a rational market understand his behavior by now (not agree with it, but understand it). Especially since his stated goal has been “impose tariffs to spur renegotiation of trade terms”. Why would a rational market actor be acting like Trump isn’t doing what he’s…

Sure. Trump is trying to renegotiate the trade deals with Mexico and Canada that he himself negotiated during his last term, by unilaterally imposing massive tariffs. Why are you pretending that this makes any sense?
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