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Is the world becoming uninsurable?

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Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#791

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America isn't the only place having an uptick in extreme weather events, though.

"Pakistan floods: One third of country is under water - minister" https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62712301

Pakistan mentioned! Let's go!!

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#792

American, living in area prone to natural disasters: "Is the WHOLE WORLD becoming uninsurable?" The answer is obviously "no" since there are other parts of the world that don't live on a hurricane highway nor build houses made from firewood in an area prone to wildfires.

Do we know why the insurance companies can't simply raise the insurance price to match the risks in those areas that are prone to natural disasters? I mean in general, not as in California where the government imposes strange policies. Speaking of the policy, why wouldn't California allow the insurance company raise the premium by region? Doesn't such policy benefit the rich at the cost of the poor as the rich love to live by the hills, lakes, or beaches, which is very much against the ideology of California?

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#793

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re ignoring one critical difference between these two scenarios. Humans, and all human related activities, produce heat as a waste product. It’s much easier, and consumes less additional energy, to heat an occupied space, than to cool it. Thanks to the fact that your average human produces 80W of heat just to stay alive. So every human in your cold space is 80W fewer watts of energy you need to produce to heat th…

> So cooling a living space is always more costly than heating a living space. Simply because all the waste energy created by people living in the space reduces the total heating requirement of the space, but equally increases the cooling requirement of that same space. This simply is not true for a furnace or electric resistive heat. My furnace produces 0.9W of heat for every 1W of energy input. More efficient ones…

> My furnace produces 0.9W of heat for every 1W of energy input.

I assume you mean that 10% of the energy immediately escapes your house?

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#794

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hurricanes are mostly just flood damage in the US, and some wind/debris damage exactly like the blown over trees you mention. Houses generally aren't destroyed by hurricanes in the sense of "the storm literally ripped them up", they're made uninhabitable by storm surges (flood). The scary ones are tornados. And tornados do genuinely fuck shit up. Even in those "enlightened" parts of the world you think have proper bu…

The real problem is that we're politically/socially unwilling to transfer the risk to the people who are responsible for creating it: Wealthy coastal landowners believe that the cost of home insurance should be about $2000/year. If their properties actually cost $200,000 per year to insure, then that's what they should have to pay! If they don't like it, they should either build something cheaper (that's the other ha…

The real issue is global warming causing an exponential rise in tail risk events. It's exponential because even a linear shift in temperature causes an exponential rise at the tails (look at how a normal distribution works).

Insurance is based on statistics. The math they use assumes stationary distributions. Insurance companies can't deal with shifting distributions well so they take the losses and then exit markets.

Global warming is going to mess up insurance as we know it for that reason. Not sure property insurance, but all kinds of insurance.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#796

Not uninsurable, but buildings are going to have to become tougher. It's happened before. Chicago's reaction to the Great Fire was simple - no more building wooden houses. Chicago went all brick. Still is, mostly. The trouble is, brick isn't earthquake resistant. Not without steel reinforcement. I live in a house built of cinder block filled with concrete reinforced with steel. A commercial builder built this as his…

In Yugoslavia, in 1969, one of the biggest earthquakes occurred, destroying several cities. After that, the country’s leaders decided to change building codes. Even today, although Yugoslavia no longer exists, the countries that adopted those codes have homes capable of withstanding earthquakes up to 7.5 on the Richter scale. My main point is that if we face major natural disasters, we need to take action to mitigate…

Reading up on this a bit, it seems it was the 1963 earthquake that precipitated the change in building regulations? The 1969 one seemed comparatively mild(?)

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#797
post #499

American, living in area prone to natural disasters: "Is the WHOLE WORLD becoming uninsurable?" The answer is obviously "no" since there are other parts of the world that don't live on a hurricane highway nor build houses made from firewood in an area prone to wildfires.

There were houses that survived recent wildfires because they were built to be in a fire zone and survive fires. I’m sure there was damage but nowhere near total loss. I’m sure when homes are rebuilt the majority will not be fire resistant. It’s possible to build for hurricanes and floods too but few do it. They build houses that get blown away and then tap insurance. Insurance rates for properties not built to withs…

> I’m sure when homes are rebuilt the majority will not be fire resistant

They are required to be: https://heatmap.news/climate/california-wildfire-building-co...

The problem is that in many desirable places to live in California, many houses are very old and are not compliant with the latest building codes.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#798

Like we see in California, when the government sets a price ceiling, insurance companies just leave. Same in Florida. If the free market truly was allowed run normally, the insurance rates in Pacific Palisades or on the Florida coast would be so high that no one could afford to live there. Is that a bad thing? If someone was living in a house near where they tested missiles, we'd call them crazy. At what point can we…

The governments know this and yet set the insurance premium price ceilings anyways.

At some point you have to consider that as indistinguishable from having a policy to drive people out: deny them insurance, wait for natural disaster, redevelop the now-very-cheap land however the government and its developer friends wants. Whether such a policy is adopted on purpose may not be possible to tell. You'll get called a conspiracist if you even hint that you wonder about it. But you know these people know -it's hard to believe that they don't- what happens when you set price ceilings.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#799
post #794

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The real problem is that we're politically/socially unwilling to transfer the risk to the people who are responsible for creating it: Wealthy coastal landowners believe that the cost of home insurance should be about $2000/year. If their properties actually cost $200,000 per year to insure, then that's what they should have to pay! If they don't like it, they should either build something cheaper (that's the other ha…

The real issue is global warming causing an exponential rise in tail risk events. It's exponential because even a linear shift in temperature causes an exponential rise at the tails (look at how a normal distribution works). Insurance is based on statistics. The math they use assumes stationary distributions. Insurance companies can't deal with shifting distributions well so they take the losses and then exit markets…

They exit markets due to regulations banning them from charging the true cost of risk. Large insurance companies don’t just go broke. They have re-insurance that caps their losses. It’s becoming far more difficult to get reinsurance and the premium caps make reinsurance unaffordable for the insurance company so they leave. The business model is managing the money - they don’t much care about the claim losses over the long term and taking 1 percent of rising premiums to be a manager is a solid business model.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#800

American, living in area prone to natural disasters: "Is the WHOLE WORLD becoming uninsurable?" The answer is obviously "no" since there are other parts of the world that don't live on a hurricane highway nor build houses made from firewood in an area prone to wildfires.

Do we know why the insurance companies can't simply raise the insurance price to match the risks in those areas that are prone to natural disasters? I mean in general, not as in California where the government imposes strange policies. Speaking of the policy, why wouldn't California allow the insurance company raise the premium by region? Doesn't such policy benefit the rich at the cost of the poor as the rich love t…

It's more complicated than that, as always. Here's some (incomplete) background on Florida:

https://www.civilbeat.org/2024/03/how-floridas-home-insuranc...

Re: California, I don't understand the context for your question, or why you would think the California government is more strange than any other US state government. There's no universally-accepted "ideology of California." It's a big state with a huge, diverse population.

tl;dr, though: California does allow insurers to do that, but is using currently an antiquated set of rules that don't allow for modern risk management approaches. It's been rewriting those rules recently to fix this; I think the new rules are supposed to be in effect starting this year.

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