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Trump wins presidency for second time

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Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#792
post #30

Here's a European perspective that is somewhat pro-Trump, surprising as it may sound. I am Dutch and if someone would come along and promise the following: "We're gonna lower your taxes so you have more money to spend" "We're gonna take a sledge hammer to bloated policies so everything will run smoothly. Then we will build a million houses per year" I would very much consider voting for that person. That said, Trump…

That's the thing, though. If you hear someone say those things -- attractive as they sound -- and then blindly believe them without asking how they intend to accomplish those things, then you are an irresponsible, ignorant voter.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#793
post #751

incumbents all around the world have performed terribly post COVID. UK, Canada, Japan, France, Italy, have all had landslide or shocking election results. Unsure what the general mood is that can lead to Keir Starmer dropping 30 points in approval months after winning in a landslide, but the mood of general discontent may be relevant in the United States as well. It seems whatever the status quo / incumbent advantage…

> Canada

Trudeau has been PM since 2015 and the last election was in 2021. Sure, it looks like he's gonna lose the next one, but Canada hasn't had a oppositional landslide election.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#794
A lot of people have a broken bullshit detector. They think they can tell when someone is lying, but they rely on the other person having a guilty conscience. Trump doesn't have a guilty conscience.

If a person were to read the newspaper, they would figure out that Trump is a pathological liar, but most don't read a newspaper, and even among those that do, a lot of people read for confirmation rather than for understanding.

A lot of people get their information from Fox News, right wing radio, or right wing leaning podcasts. These information sources direct your focus to things which will make you angry about the things they want you to be angry about, and ignorant of things which maybe you should care about.

The most important things which we can all do is to take back control of our own focus and maintain our sense of curiosity and a dash of healthy skepticism. Ask why someone is trying to get you to focus on this or that. Ask why they never mention these other issues which may be equally or more important. Question your own biases and assumptions from time to time.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#795
Just the day before the election a family member asked how anyone could possibly vote for Trump. I started going into the history of the primaries, and the fraud with Bernie in 2016 & 2020. How it's not red vs blue, it's really insiders vs outsiders. Within 30 seconds I was shouted down and shamed.

I then asked: "I can name 10 good things about Biden / Harris, can you do the same for Trump?" They couldn't say 1 positive reason that the ~ 75million voters are supporting Trump.

It's a good self-test of your bubble. Could you make a sound argument in favor of the opponent? If not, then you haven't spent enough time trying to understand the context.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#796

Wouldn't it be amazing if we had a viable third party? I can dream, can't I?

What needs to happen is that the American people need to RUN. Every single time. Take Colorado as an example: A third party candidate could get on the ballot for congress for as little as 1,500 signatures from registered voters. To change the two-party system will be like legalizing marijuana. City by city, state by state, all the way.

The problem is that there's not much money in third party politics...

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#797

Is there some analysis why the polls didn't correctly predict the result? A failure in representative polls like this should be avoided with statistical methods.

This is purely devil's advocate: Many polls may just be political levers, designed and executed with a predetermined outcome so it can be used in mass media. There is an undeniable tilt to mainstream news companies and almost confirmation bias in their polling.. Does make me wonder.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#798

It's the economy, stupid: -Inflation is not prices; it is the rate of change in prices. Low inflation doesn't imply low prices. -Aggregate statistics don't necessarily explain individual outcomes. The Dems failed on this count massively, and have, for maybe the last 40 years, which is about the amount of time it took for my state to go from national bellwether (As goes Ohio, so goes the nation) to a reliably red stat…

"It's the economy, stupid:"^1

That unoriginal theory as applied to this election appears to be based on exit polls. History has shown these polls are unreliable.

1. Pundits like the one who penned this quip^2 just aren't worth much anymore.

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Carville

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