Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid • Hacker News Board

Re: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

#791

Post by godelski » Mon, Jun 12, 2023, 5:34 PM UTC

oilchange wrote: post #699

godelski wrote: post #477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you think the ... aren't running bio-weapons labs, then you are being too trusting at best or too naive at worst. No, they are. But that's a bit different. Though I understand the confusion. Gain of function research can be classified as weapons. You got to develop weapons to defend against them. And of course, momentum. Especially in politics, where once funding is given it is hard to take it away, though not h…

> No, they are. Okay good, I'm glad we are agreed. > Some yes, some no. If some are, then "everyone" has to, especially major powers. Just think about it. > This is a lot of what jcranmer is pointing to. I debunked what he wrote. > the Russian strategy What's that? > Though this is more easily done in an authoritative country. No. It's done more easily in a democracy. An authoritative country never developed nuked an…

> If some are, then "everyone" has to

Very clearly false dilemma.

> I debunked what he wrote.

That's a strong word for what you wrote.

> What's that?

I'd link it to you, but you said you don't want to read "silly blogs". So I'm not sure how I can communicate anything to you. I don't feel like it'd help. I think we're done here.

Re: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

#792

Post by boston_clone » Mon, Jun 12, 2023, 6:01 PM UTC

spookthesunset wrote: post #786

lock-the-spock wrote: post #565

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was never a consensus for or against lockdowns. Cant speak for the US and it's utterly broken media landscape but in Europe experts were asking for this from day one. It is also a known tool of any epidemic/pandemic management, it just has rarely been necessary at such scale given the intensity and wide distribution of COVID.

> It is also a known tool of any epidemic/pandemic management, it just has rarely been necessary at such scale given the intensity and wide distribution of COVID. That must be why all the pandemic planning guides from various national health agencies specifically said do not do lockdowns, do no close schools and don't force masks ... It was never a "known tool" to anybody. It was an insane, unproven pharmaceutical in…

> That must be why all the pandemic planning guides from various national health agencies specifically said do not do lockdowns, do no close schools and don't force masks...

Could you provide a citation? I’ve read the opposite from NIH, CDC, NHS, etc.

For example, this is from 2013: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3559034/

Re: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

#793

Post by nradov » Mon, Jun 12, 2023, 6:02 PM UTC

jjoonathan wrote: post #569

nonethewiser wrote: post #554

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need the same for the complete 180 on lockdowns. From universally against to forced lockdowns. I think people forget how strong the consensus (including medical) against lockdowns was. I was in China during the outbreak. All western media and healthcare experts had to say about lockdowns was that they were counterproductive and have never been part of the medical playbook. And that it violates civil rights. A mont…

It was an election year. Trump really didn't want to do anything that would upset the economy, and he gambled all his chips on "ignore it until it goes away." Public officials were begging and pleading to take measures to get R under control from the very start of exponential growth in the US, but they were not able to break through the political stonewall. Conservatives will say & do anything to get you to forget ho…

It turns out that mechanical ventilators weren't very helpful. They did more harm than good for many patients, and overuse was a factor in the unusually high infection fatality rate seen in New York during the first phase of the pandemic. Ironically, some patients walking around today probably survived only because there was a shortage of ventilators.

https://apnews.com/article/health-us-news-ap-top-news-intern...

Re: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

#794

Post by snowwrestler » Mon, Jun 12, 2023, 6:07 PM UTC

stormfather wrote: post #596

pfisherman wrote: post #589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the most alarming aspect of the lab leak hypothesis is that gain-of-function research is STILL being done, and that the same thing could happen AGAIN. This right here is an example of why we can’t have reasoned discussion around the topic. You can explain one of the many reasons why gain of function research is necessary: anticipating next year’s version of the flu, designing drugs and vaccines such that resistance…

> the “lab leak” theory tends to be people pushing an unsubstantiated theory to either For me it's just common sense. It probably came from the coronavirus lab with a bad safety record it popped up next to. Duh. And I "push" it because I value the truth and want to live in a rational society where the truth isn't gamed for emotional or political reasons. And that's probably the same for most of us.

It’s absolutely not common sense, we have tens of thousands of years of evidence that viruses can evolve to cause human illness, and zero documented examples of a man-made novel virus doing so.

It would be an extraordinarily rare and noteworthy event in human history. The bar to prove that it happened to cause COVID is very high and the direct evidence (not circumstantial) for it is so far very low.

Re: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

#795

Post by jstarfish » Mon, Jun 12, 2023, 6:07 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #746

jstarfish wrote: post #574

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sometime in the past 12 months this disappeared. We're trying to groom public appetite for war with China. Anything that paints them in the worst possible light is acceptable now. After artificial chip shortages, the weather balloon incident, and TikTok, now it's suggested China was responsible for COVID. Expect more to follow.

What "weather balloon incident"? China intentionally sent a spy balloon into US airspace to gather intelligence and test our response. You can't seriously expect us to believe that it was for weather observations.

Yes, true. Based on what we're told about it, it does sound like a legit spy balloon.

What gives me pause is that our collective national security apparatus saw fit to let it traverse the entire fucking country before doing anything about it. And in the end, America even acknowledged that it was blown off course-- which is what the Chinese were saying from the start.

I don't trust the Chinese-- at all. I don't trust America either though. I remember the certainty with which they said there was evidence of WMDs in Iraq.

Re: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

#796

Post by rich_sasha » Mon, Jun 12, 2023, 6:14 PM UTC

LeonB wrote: post #372

rich_sasha wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But science does not ask this kind of question! I disagree, it is a scientific question. Whether we can answer it in isolation of politics and prejudice is the question for me. But if you observe some gravitational waves in a single event, you can correlate it to optical or radio observations, you can try to analyse the signals to match them to existing hypotheses of gravitational waves origination etc. The singula…

The top level question is not a scientific question. In order to investigate it, many many many smaller questions may be asked, some of which are scientific.

I think it's splitting hairs, but even then I disagree. I can't see how the evolution and emergence of a virus is not a question of applied science.

That it is commingled with a million political questions, yes it's true. But to me that's a nuisance variable, not fundamentally changing the underlying question.

Re: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

#797

Post by TurkishPoptart » Mon, Jun 12, 2023, 6:19 PM UTC

doom2 wrote: post #677

peppermint_gum wrote: post #605

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> These conspiracy theories lead to a marked rise in violent attacks on anyone of Asian descent in the US, It should be noted that the statistics don't support the media narrative and there was no wave of white supremacist attacks on Asians. Here are the stats from New York ("Arrest Statistics by Bias Motivation"): https://www.nyc.gov/site/nypd/stats/reports-analysis/hate-cr...

As a personal anecdote, living as an Asian in a US city with a population over 1M people, I definitely saw a change in peoples' stance towards Asians in general and Chinese in particular, and not in a good way. There was a lot more suspicion about Asians, their businesses, etc. It wasn't the same level of suspicion as during post-9/11 America but it had a similar vibe. A lot of dog whistling with sentiments like, "I'…

>A lot of dog whistling with sentiments like, "I'm criticizing the Chinese government, not the Chinese people."

This is a reasonable thing to say. I think mainland Chinese are oppressed by the Chinese Communist Party, and I hope I live to see the end of this cruel regime.

Re: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

#798

Post by Manjuuu » Mon, Jun 12, 2023, 6:21 PM UTC

realjhol wrote: post #780

Manjuuu wrote: post #763

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope, I don't plan to watch anything, feel free to indulge in your beliefs.

Yes - this is my point. So many of you people have become so emotionally invested in the false narratives that you have believed, that you can't cope with any evidence that threatens your narrative even slightly. At least we can talk about the "lab leak theory" now. This was the original point I made: it will take years for people to climb down these positions they have taken, but at least we are making small steps i…

Man, you are talking about yourself, you literally started this subthread with the basic set of round of the mill covid contrarians BS that have 0 ground in reality and survive only thanks to the emotional attachment of people like you.

When asked for evidence you post the usual cherrypicked random stuff that aligns with what you believe (the only valid sources).

My recommendation is to just stop with this imaginary fight for the truth, when everyone is moving on and no one even cares anymore about these creative reinterpretations of reality. You lost any credibility with the first message of this chain, too much BS. Free yourself.

Re: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

#799

Post by boston_clone » Mon, Jun 12, 2023, 6:23 PM UTC

spookthesunset wrote: post #788

boston_clone wrote: post #612

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A scientific consensus is significantly different than media opinion. Second, there is no "debate" regarding efficacy of masks and limiting exposure via quarantining. Masking reduces the likelihood of contracting SARS from others, and staying home reduces the spread to others and strain on hospitals. Unsurprisingly, the people attempting to debate this typically had no medical background whatsoever. Millions died in…

> Unsurprisingly, the people attempting to debate this typically had no medical background whatsoever. You don't need to have a "medical background" to debate lockdowns or masks. The decision to use those should never have been made exclusively by people with "medical backgrounds". It isn't their job. Just because the "medical people" say it's gonna work, doesn't mean it is worth the cost to society. And it isn't at…

> A good decision-maker should take input from everybody who will be impacted.

You’re right; I’m really glad I polled thousands of fellow employees before forcing multifactor auth, or that time I chatted with a sysadmin to make sure they really did mean to open RDP on a public server before taking it offline.

Sarcasm aside, in a time of a medical emergency, it is the job of medical professionals to make decisions, because public safety supersedes individual freedoms. It’s why we have speed limits. It’s why you have to wear a seatbelt. It’s why you can’t shoot fireworks off during a drought. It’s why products are restricted from being sold. The concept is fundamentally the same.

It’s also the same reason I’m glad cybersecurity policy, strategy, and operations are not a truly democratic process.

Re: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

#800

Post by zkms » Mon, Jun 12, 2023, 6:25 PM UTC

mjburgess wrote: post #534

zkms wrote: post #513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I never met anyone who didn't equate "lab leak" with an intentional act by china The likes of Alina Chan and Richard Ebright are "easy mode" counterexamples for your statement. I'll swing for the fences: Even Tom Cotton was -- at least once, I am exceedingly uninterested in combing through all his tweets and media appearances -- careful to distinguish between "lab leak" and "intentional act", despite being brazenly…

[flagged]

> It's trivial to find people inside your echo-chamber being well-behaved --- this doesn't answer what a platform's moral responsibility is to society.

I am not a Republican, Tom Cotton is incredibly far away from anything which could be considered my "echo chamber", and I never claimed he was well-behaved.

I chose him specifically to make the specific and narrow point that even brazenly political actors were careful to explicitly distinguish between accidental/unintentional release and an intentional release; and also made clear that "intentional release" was the possibility they regarded as least likely. This was in response to the comment I replied to, whose author said "I never met anyone who didn't equate "lab leak" with an intentional act by china".

I think most people -- political leaders and otherwise -- are perfectly capable of distinguishing between "high-risk research goes tragically wrong" and "a bioweapon was released on purpose".

If anything, these hamhanded efforts (equating a prosaic "people and/or equipment messed up" scenario to "intentional release of bioweapon", making spurious accusations of racism, claiming that the case for a natural origin is ironclad, government agencies refusing to hand over relevant documents to Senators with the right to see them, etc) to censor discussion and impede investigation of the former has fueled incredibly noxious conspiratorial thinking.