The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins • Hacker News Board

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#791

Post by bumbada » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 1:26 PM UTC

bartart wrote: post #2

This is the most shocking article I have ever read in my life. I'd ask everyone to please read it because it is incredible. One thing I did not realize is that US researchers who conducted gain of function research tried to downplay and discredit the possibility of the virus originating from the wuhan lab. There was an anti-lab theory Lancet statement signed by scientists, and "Daszak had not only signed but organize…

There is a very important thing to mention: Both the US and Europe depended on China's supplies in order to fight the virus in the first place.

Guess what Chinese officials did? They called each individual country prime minister and said: Your news reporters are criticizing China, it seems like you don't want supplies.

So politicians will talk with the boss of the news Media and explain the situation, the journalist will shut up.

This happened in two big European countries I personally know of. I suspect the same happened in the rest.

This is a beautiful reminder that you should never outsource your strategic resources like essential food, energy or medical supplies and if you do, you better don't do that from totalitarian regimes.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#792

Post by himinlomax » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 1:31 PM UTC

op00to wrote: post #717

estaseuropano wrote: post #483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Natural origin and lab leak are in no way exclusive. The lab was collecting viruses and creating new ones - either one could have leaked. I don't have strong views as it's incredibly difficult to prove a negative (that it was not a leak), essentially you would have to identify and prove exactly the actual vector and even then it might be difficult to be conclusive. Lab leak seems however like a very likely scenario a…

Why is a lab leak a likely scenario? You say that with no evidence to back up the claim. I say a lab leak is highly unlikely.

Consider the priors. There's one lab of that type doing that kind of work in China. What is the likelihood that an epidemic emerging in China next to that one lab while not being from the lab?

Also lab leaks are a type of industrial accident. Industrial accidents happen even in the places with the most stringent security protocols. Were that lab's protocols the best in the world? Can't say. And those that are best in the world have contingency plans, for when shit hits the fan.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#793

Post by tim333 » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 1:31 PM UTC

elcomet wrote: post #743

kelnos wrote: post #555

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty sure if I ran an organization that funds a bunch of labs that do virus research, and a global pandemic started in the neighborhood of a lab doing virus research, and people started floating the theory that the virus leaked from that lab, one of the first things I'd do is call my grant-funding team and ask them if we funded that lab. If Fauci didn't do that, he's a strange dude.

Does it really matter though ? The fist thing I would do is find how to keep people from my country safe, not worry about where did my funding go (especially since the lab's funding has absolutely nothing to do with how we can find a cure or a vaccine).

It matters for stopping this happening again.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#794

Post by shellfishgene » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 1:32 PM UTC

lifeformed wrote: post #317

kaesar14 wrote: post #54

It’s crazy to me how many people on even this forum, a place purportedly of science, continue to dismiss a lab leak origin out of hand citing it as some sort of crackpot theory. The serious questions raised in this article have been around since last April but it’s only now it’s even allowed to talk about them on digital forums. Excellent write up by Vanity Fair.

The way I remember it was that people conflated the lab leak theory with it being engineered in a lab. Those are very different things but easy to mix up in a headline. It being engineered as a bioweapon is in the realm of a crackpot theory, but it being just a poorly contained natural research project was fairly reasonable. Some prominent people mixed the two up on purpose and eventually the whole thing - both ideas…

To be fair it does not sound like many people doubt that they were conducting gain of function experiments at the Wuhan lab, which makes it not unlikely that a lab leak as successful as covid was one of those engineered strains. If it was a lab leak at all.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#795

Post by wycy » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 1:32 PM UTC

I'm normally one to be quick to criticize the media for its many faults, but in this case I blame the scientists--namely those at the Lancet--more than the media. Journalists aren't virologists or biologists, and I have a hard time blaming them for taking the statements of scientists at the most respected medical journal at face value.

This is massively discrediting to the Lancet. Similar to the review of Linux patches from U of Minnesota, it would be prudent to review past publications by the scientists who published the Lancet statement.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#796

Post by FridayoLeary » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 1:37 PM UTC

What i feel is that as much as science has distinguished itself over the pandemic e.g. identifying the virus developing a vaccine etc, it has disgraced itself. First of the criminal and disgraceful actions of the WHO helping China cover up the virus in the initial stages. Then afterwards, despite obviously and understandably being totally ignorant of almost all basic data on how the virus spreads, works etc. (data that the Chinese withheld) they felt confident enough to offer clear guidelines. So much so, that when Trump closed the US to China, he was slammed as xenophobic. The scientific community have a lot to explain, but shockingly they don't seem to be hanging their heads in shame. Rather they are soldiering apparently oblivious to that fact.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#797

Post by bluGill » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 1:38 PM UTC

elcomet wrote: post #743

kelnos wrote: post #555

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty sure if I ran an organization that funds a bunch of labs that do virus research, and a global pandemic started in the neighborhood of a lab doing virus research, and people started floating the theory that the virus leaked from that lab, one of the first things I'd do is call my grant-funding team and ask them if we funded that lab. If Fauci didn't do that, he's a strange dude.

Does it really matter though ? The fist thing I would do is find how to keep people from my country safe, not worry about where did my funding go (especially since the lab's funding has absolutely nothing to do with how we can find a cure or a vaccine).

Yes, because you need to keep up the appearance of neutrality. If there is a conflict of interest, then you need to be careful to ensure that everyone knows you are ensuring those conflicts don't happen. That means you need to know and admit a lot of things that don't happen.

My company wants to know if my brother in law works for a competitor. It won't change my job, but they will be careful to ensure that I don't work on things that it would matter if I let something slip over dinner.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#798

Post by jaywalk » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 1:40 PM UTC

Rapzid wrote: post #769

bglazer wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm quite astounded and confused at the sudden shift in discourse towards assuming that the lab leak theory must be true. It's not so much the theory itself that's surprising. Lab leak remains plausible but less probable then natural origins. The sudden shift is just baffling to me though. This huge new furor is due to anonymous CIA sources saying three people got sick? That's extremely tenuous evidence, as you state…

It's like everyone has forgotten or never even knew the context of the original strong pushback. It wasn't against the possibility of a lab leak, it was against the rhetoric (lies) coming out of our own Whitehouse trying shift blame to China. Lies that were dangerously feeding anti-asian sentiment in the USA. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article...

Oh please. Your one article doesn't change the fact that even mentioning the lab leak theory got you labeled a right-wing conspiracy nut and in some cases banned from social media.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#799

Post by 40four » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 1:40 PM UTC

foobiekr wrote: post #503

40four wrote: post #492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Guys, a bit of a tangent if I may? This is not normally my lane, but I really wish we could get over this term ‘wet market’. From a western point of view if you really think about it, it’s derogatory, and likely based in racial paranoia. We’ve all heard this term time and time again in the media. But after looking into it more, it’s not really accurate. Just call it a market. Or a farmers market as we call them in Am…

What kind of farmer’s markets have you been to with live animals in poor health being slaughtered in place?

This is exactly my point. What exactly makes you think this is the case? How do you know there are animals in 'poor health' there?

Maybe the term itself isn't the problem, but the way it was used in American media, especially during the Trump administration. The term, and it's connotations were used in a way to disparage Chinese people. It has been used to suggest the reason we have this pandemic is because these 'inferior' people are eating bats and weird animals in their 'dirty' wet markets.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#800

Post by tpfour » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 1:41 PM UTC

henearkr wrote: post #337

jkhdigital wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> no mention of the virus not matching any backbones in use for genetic experimentation, or the suboptimal binding to humans Are you going to cite sources? And then are you going to cite the other sources which have addressed both of these weak counter arguments? Some of us have done a lot of homework on this one, so you need to bring your A game.

The optimal binding for humans would have been SARS-COV1 at that time, so the fact it was not reused shows the suboptimality.

There is a vast amount of unpublished research, not because of malicious intentions, but because it's either still ongoing, or abandoned, or postponed, or waiting for other results, or for review, or qualified specialists to help, whatever.

The VF article specifically mentions that the closest known virus was 96% similar (vs 90% for SARS-CoV-1), and had actually been renamed by the scientists studying it and that fact hadn't been put forward to the community.

It can still be shown that this has a completely natural (i.e. no human error involved) origin, but the burden of proof gets higher every day. It's much more probable that human error is involved, which is something that happens every day.