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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

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Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#781

Post by irishcoffee »

qwytw wrote: post #729
irishcoffee wrote: post #633

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is actually an interesting point. Wouldn't it be bad for China if the US isn't the reserve currency/the RMB gains a lot more in value relative to the USD? It would proportionally, negatively, affect their export profits, no?

Germany did relatively fine though? Despite the German mark being the second largest reserve currency and their economy being heavily reliant on exports.

Mostly it’s just what I’ve read, I don’t know if it’s true, which is why I asked. If you get less yuan-people-hours per dollar (and materials cost increase for the same reason), you would get less per dollar than previously, I think?

Eventually you hit an inflection point where it’s cheaper to manufacture elsewhere. Which is why China is working Africa, huh?

Interesting stuff, in a vacuum.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#782

Post by RGamma »

mullingitover wrote: post #697
ifwinterco wrote: post #670

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can also draw a comparison with the late imperial stage of other empires, most recently the British. The British Empire actually reached its greatest territorial extent in the 1920s and 30s, but it was overextended, policymaking was becoming increasingly erratic and in hindsight we can see the writing was already on the wall

The British didn't really make unforced errors like Germany did, though. They mostly were forced into a fire sale situation as they were fighting for their lives. Even with everything they sold off, they were still within an inch of surrendering. The French story is similar. They may have been in a slow decline, but the war threw them off a cliff. It's hard to look at what the US is doing and not become extremely ang…

When societies can't solve their internal problems internally they tend to turn outward for solutions.

Everybody could see the long string of preventable phenomena leading up to this: financial deregulation, decline of civic institutions, high levels of deaths of despair, rampant individualism, unchecked commerce, rising internal violence, rising inequality, rotten media landscape, open political corruption (not in this order).

My only hope at this point is the minimization of violence when the US resets.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#783

Post by jmyeet »

prennert wrote: post #774
jmyeet wrote: post #754

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think you can compare pre-WWI Germany to the US for many reasons. In the colonial era, Germany as a fairly new state and unlike the UK, Spain, France, even Portugal or the Netherlands, they didn't have colonies to exploit. Worse, in the industrialization era they didn't have access to oil. This created a paranoia in Germany, an insecurity that were between Great Powers and were dependent on imports and poorer…

> They felt like they'd eventually get swallowed unless they did something and the end result was WWI. And WW2 if you think about it. I think this exactly how the US administration _feels_. Alexandr Dugin proposed spheres of influence. Russia starts acting on those. China is getting more powerful. Its now or never.

I'm an historical materialist. That means I don't believe religion, ethnicity or political philosophy ever drives international conflict. It's always, always, always material interests. Those other things are just an excuse, something to rile up the populace into supporting the government and dying on the front line.

So some think Duginism and a Greater Russia is driving Putin's expanionist activity in Ukraine (including Crimea and the invasion in 2022). I don't see it that way. It's using the Russian diaspora as an excuse for expansion, similar to what Hitler did in Austria and the Sedetenland. But the interests are material.

Russia does have a "legitimate" interest in not having a hostile Great Power on its borders. I include NATO as an extension of the US. I say "legitimate" in the sense that they're doing the exact same thing the US does. The US has the (ever-changing) Monroe Doctrine and almost started World War Three over Cuba (despite instigating the confrontation in Turkey).

But NATO was never going to expand to include Ukraine. Bush and Biden both made offhand comments about it but countries like Germany would always veto Ukraine's membership because they don't want NATO on Russia's borders. And Putin knows this. So there's some historical revisionism going on to say that Putin invaded Ukraine because of NATO. I personally think he would've done it anyway.

The real problem is that Russia wants a warm water port on the Black Sea and that's what Sevastopol is. Ukraine cut off the water and it's becoming increasingly expensive to maintain that holding so Russia has captured what's essentially a land bridge to Crimea and plans to hold on to it until the West gets bored.

I believe that Putin arguably overplayed his hand by buying European silence on the matter with natural gas dependence.

The US however spends a ton of money and military force and political will projecting power into, say, the Middle East. Is that in the US sphere of influence? No. The US is also a net energy exporter now so you can't even blame securing oil as an excuse for it.

The US isn't operating in a deeply insecure fashion. Instead, they're simply extracting wealth from all over the world for the benefit of a handful of billionaires.

I guess where the US is insecure is in that no system other than neoliberalism can be allowed to exist and prosper because it might cause the populace to revolt. The existence of the USSR actually forced to the US to give Americans something so they didn't revolt. This desire means that any quasi-socialist nation gets starved with sanctions and couped to maintain this illusion.

And the US's big problem is they can't bully and starve China in this way.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#784

Post by ElectricalUnion »

TSiege wrote: post #94
andsoitis wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The decline has been gradual. The dollar's portion of global forex reserves has fallen from over 70% in the late 1990s to around 60%. The Supreme Court's ruling on Fed independency is to be watched.

You're also forgetting BRICs and the EU's efforts to create their own banking systems that would make it easier to do trade and finances without the dollar as an intermediary. The dollar being the reserve currency is going to be come more sudden once mass adoption of those platforms takes hold. Who can blame them with how the US is behaving

"BRICS" is one of those organizations of countries that make even OPEC (famous for being non-commital, non-punishing, barely advisorial organization that doesn't meet it's own goals since the 1980's) look like a very serious group.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#785

Post by [deleted] »

throw310822 wrote: post #765
consumer451 wrote: post #274

Related is the PM of Canada’s speech at Davos today. I don’t think that I have heard such a blunt assessment of the past and future from a politician, ever. This may be a historically significant speech. https://www.youtube.com/live/dE981Z_TaVo?t=100

Mark Carney is a great orator, I was impressed just a few days ago by his speech after meeting Xi Jinping in China: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLasfU4l__A

[deleted]

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#786

Post by jmyeet »

weslleyskah wrote: post #780
jmyeet wrote: post #754

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think you can compare pre-WWI Germany to the US for many reasons. In the colonial era, Germany as a fairly new state and unlike the UK, Spain, France, even Portugal or the Netherlands, they didn't have colonies to exploit. Worse, in the industrialization era they didn't have access to oil. This created a paranoia in Germany, an insecurity that were between Great Powers and were dependent on imports and poorer…

Even if China begins to take over much of the world's economic power, I don't think the rest of the world will accept Chinese culture in the face of Western social values. The wave of fascism is already rising in Europe, but it is still very much under control. Like the AfD political party in Germany.

Under control how?

France has Macron siding with Le Pen to keep Melanchon out of power. The AfD's power is growing and we'll see if there exists a coalition that can form a government without them after the next election. Many expect Nigel Farrage to be the next Prime Minister of the UK.

This is why people say fascism is capitalism in crisis. All of these countries are choosing fascism rather than any socialist movement or even saying "maybe the wealthy could loot slightly less from the public purse". The rise of fascism is paved by centrist neoliberals siding with fascists to crush any leftist momentum.

People are increasingly seeing what life is like in China. Affordable housing, affordable food and public infrastructure like extensive metros and high speed trains. That's the real problem with Tiktok (from the administration's perspective). People asking "why can't we have that?" is incredibly dangerous to the system we have. IMHO there's no unringing that bell however.

"Western social values" are a luxury easily abandoned when you can't afford your rent. Populist fascism is rising because people are increasingly desperate and there's no alternative because the centrists are united with the fascists to crush any leftist momentum.

The president ran on having Gestapo in the streets and having concentration camps. How loyal really are voters to "Western social values"? And what are prominent Democratic politicians doing? Suggesting more funding for ICE [1].

A populist party that ran on giving people healthcare and guaranteeing a roof over their heads and having enough to eat would win in a landslide. Every level of our political system is designed to make sure such a person can't rise to prominence.

Don't believe me? Look at the 2024 election results and see how progressive voter initiatives did compared to the Democratic Party. Missouri, a deep red state, had a majority vote for raising the minimum wage, outperforming the Democratic Party by more than 20 points.

[1]: https://www.newsweek.com/cory-booker-ice-proposal-progressiv...

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#787

Post by rcxdude »

jmyeet wrote: post #783
prennert wrote: post #774

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They felt like they'd eventually get swallowed unless they did something and the end result was WWI. And WW2 if you think about it. I think this exactly how the US administration _feels_. Alexandr Dugin proposed spheres of influence. Russia starts acting on those. China is getting more powerful. Its now or never.

I'm an historical materialist. That means I don't believe religion, ethnicity or political philosophy ever drives international conflict. It's always, always, always material interests. Those other things are just an excuse, something to rile up the populace into supporting the government and dying on the front line. So some think Duginism and a Greater Russia is driving Putin's expanionist activity in Ukraine (inclu…

Eh, I don't think that is really a consistent, useful model. It's not that material interests are irrelevant, but ideological alignment even at the most Machiavellian level constrains what's possible, if not outright defining where lines are drawn. You can't ignore how politics happens within countries when looking at how they interact with each other.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#788

Post by consumer451 »

throw310822 wrote: post #765
consumer451 wrote: post #274

Related is the PM of Canada’s speech at Davos today. I don’t think that I have heard such a blunt assessment of the past and future from a politician, ever. This may be a historically significant speech. https://www.youtube.com/live/dE981Z_TaVo?t=100

Mark Carney is a great orator, I was impressed just a few days ago by his speech after meeting Xi Jinping in China: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLasfU4l__A

Not only a great orator, but look at his resume:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Carney

This man is clearly one of the leaders of the new free world.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#789

Post by SanjayMehta »

lpcvoid wrote: post #701
Saline9515 wrote: post #687

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should define what "our values" is when making such bold statements.

Freedom of speech, democratically elected representatives, protection of minorities, religious freedom, to name a few. I can already hear people storming out of the woods, ready to write how the EU itself is undemocratic, or how free speech isn't real in western European countries. I disagree with you.

Jacques Baud, Alina Lipp, Thomas Röper, Nathalie Yamb, Xavier Moreau disagree with you.

And unlike you, some random anonymous poster on this polite version of Reddit, everyone knows what they do.

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