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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

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Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#781

Post by Izkata »

embedding-shape wrote: post #179
MonkeyClub wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. Exactly: tariffs are taxes in another guise. They only serve to create an (artificial) price advantage of local over imported goods for as long as they're levied. > What were you thinking? What was going through your heads? I'm genuinely curious. I also can't fathom why the crowd (not just a HN s…

> I also can't fathom why the crowd (not just a HN subset) that was clamoring for tariffs thought it'd be anyone other than them shouldering the increase. Perhaps their influencers didn't spell it out for them? Now I'm neither in the US, American nor Democrat/Republican, but as far as I understand their argument, is that they know it means higher costs for those products for them, and it'll eventually lead to compani…

Late jump-in, but I also want to add a small analogy I've seen them use that says basically the same thing: It's like chemotherapy, short term hurt for long term gain.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#782

Post by weirdmantis69 »

bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

So since you are so smart what do you think of the trade deficit collapsing?

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#783

Post by CalChris »

Izkata wrote: post #777
CalChris wrote: post #687

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, Harris and Biden are not heavily held in contempt by most of the Left. I'm on the Left and voted for both of them. Indeed, as a Progressive, I was pleasantly surprised by Biden for his withdrawal from Afghanistan, student loan forgiveness, his canceling the Keystone Pipeline, etc.

> I was pleasantly surprised by Biden for his withdrawal from Afghanistan You mean the one he postponed until months after the date Trump had already signed a deadline for?

Yawn. Trump wouldn’t even give the Biden transition team the terms of the agreement. Trump should have withdrawn his own withdrawal. He knew he was going to lose and like W created a minor debacle for his successor. Troll elsewhere.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#784

Post by CalChris »

MonkeyClub wrote: post #760
johnnyanmac wrote: post #709

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>many, and legitimate, contentions. When one chess player chooses to suddenly say that a pawn can move 3 spaces, and you insist on calling a ref to call out cheating, I don't think it's just "two tribes" anymore. You agreed on the rules of engagment at the beginning of the match and one side is objectively breaking them. Saying post haste that "well maybe a pawn should move 3 spaces" does not negate what you agreed u…

It is different, but it serves to elucidate that the rules we're living under aren't set in stone, they're only there because we, unlike the "no it's okay" bunch, can't or don't want to shirk them. They operate under the "might is right" mentality, and by getting away with it prove in a sick and contorted way that the rules of social order aren't universal.

So you’re saying we should be more like them AND applying a bothsiderism. Maybe conservatives should just straighten up and fly right. In fact, what have they ever gotten right?

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#785

Post by intangible »

Izkata wrote: post #777
CalChris wrote: post #687

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, Harris and Biden are not heavily held in contempt by most of the Left. I'm on the Left and voted for both of them. Indeed, as a Progressive, I was pleasantly surprised by Biden for his withdrawal from Afghanistan, student loan forgiveness, his canceling the Keystone Pipeline, etc.

> I was pleasantly surprised by Biden for his withdrawal from Afghanistan You mean the one he postponed until months after the date Trump had already signed a deadline for?

If only Trump had 4 years to do anything other than kick the can down to road yet again like every prior president.

Biden took the political hit by doing the right thing and ending the war - No prior president did that.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#786

Post by omilu »

bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

Cost is not the only factor voters considered, bringing manufacturing jobs and expertise back to US is a big part of the tariff push. If cost were the only factor everyone would buy the cheapest crap off temu or amazon. People are willing to pay a premium for the hope of bringing manufacturing back and reducing reliance on foreign sources.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#787

Post by sowbug »

seizethecheese wrote: post #438
sowbug wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NPR says the figure is more like 5 percent. As far as we know, they haven't fired employees who produced numbers they didn't like. https://www.npr.org/2026/01/14/nx-s1-5638908/walmart-prices-...

This is a single Walmart and clearly dominated by outlier price swings. No, NPR didn’t make their own CPI. Surely there are other independent price baskets that actually attempt to do this, why choose this article, as interesting as it is?

I am not the one making the original assertion. I was pointing out that it relies on historically trustworthy statistics that the current administration is openly influencing.

Call the NPR methodology a canary or smoke test, if you will. Feel free to grab the brass ring if you want sources that you find more credible.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#788

Post by sowbug »

kryogen1c wrote: post #168

Almost all the comments acting like this is some truth bombshell, like people in trumpistan all thought raising tariffs magically made the us economy better. This is a straw man, no? Tariffs are a mid-long term strategy to encourage onshoring business, for reasons including military, national security, and political influence on foreign powers. This is a complicated topic involving the global economy and evolving int…

The tariffs are a man shouting "obey or I'll shoot," but he's pointing the gun at his own head.

Unfortunately he's the rich uncle everyone has become dependent on, so the world can't just let him FAFO.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#789

Post by Dirak »

nosianu wrote: post #736
Dirak wrote: post #723

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has never been the case across the history of humanity -- there has never existed a non-biased institution, and it's incredibly naive to think that a German think tank funded by the German government would be any exception. "Level headed" and "sober" people are not immune to the effects of incentives and conflicts of interest. Researchers are dependent on grants, on invitations to conferences, etc., and so are l…

If/since bias is everywhere and implicit because a person is that person and their own experiences, why point it out here so explicitly???? You do not point that out every. Single. Time. somebody argues even though it is true, or do you? Because that is just too shallow, that is the basis, nothing can be below that, so there is no point in pointing to the ground every time. So when you do point it out, it is YOU who…

No, just when Europeans (like yourself) need a reminder that they're not exceptional in their "level headedness" and "soberness", and in fact are anti-exceptional when it comes to real world outcomes like GDP.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#790

Post by digitalPhonix »

weirdmantis69 wrote: post #782
bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

So since you are so smart what do you think of the trade deficit collapsing?

Is it?

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0015.html

2025 deficit is not much smaller 2024 (looks within the normal year to year variance) and 2025’s deficit is still larger than 2023 and 2021.

Definitely not collapsing.

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