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Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

dwarkesh.com

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Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#781

Post by whiplash451 »

tim333 wrote: post #506
vannucci wrote: post #474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This so much this. We don’t even have a good model for how invertebrate minds work or a good theory of mind. We can keep imitating understanding but it’s far from any actual intelligence.

I'm not sure we or evolution needed a theory of mind. Evolution stuck neurons together in various ways and fiddled with it till it worked without a master plan and the LLM guys seem to be doing something rather like that.

mmm, no because unlike biological entities, large models learn by imitation, not by experience

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#782

Post by Rover222 »

makeworld wrote: post #778
Rover222 wrote: post #775

He also mentions that Waymo is switching to a vision-only approach, like Tesla has been doing for a couple years already.

Is that not insane?

Both Karpathy and must have explained it many times. The additional sensors add more signal than noise in the end. You also then have to decide which sensor system is correct any time they disagree. Also the entire road system is designed for vision. Lidar cannot read signs, see colors, etc. Humans can drive with two eyes. It's not insane to think computers can do it with 7 or 8 cameras.

As someone who has used Tesla FSD iterations for 4 years, their current system is quite incredible, and improving rapidly. It drives for me 95% of the time already.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#783

Post by [deleted] »

dang wrote: post #519
nextworddev wrote: post #497

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a lot of salt here

> Hey, podcast bro needs to get clicks Please don't cross into personal attack. It's not what this site is for, and destroys what it is for. Edit: please don't edit comments to change their meaning once someone has replied. It's unfair to repliers whose comments no longer make sense, and it's unfair to readers who can no longer understand the thread. It's fine, of course, to add to an existing comment in such a case,…

[deleted]

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#784

Post by ben_w »

jsiepkes wrote: post #675

Unless someone can show me some sort of "Moore's law" for LLM's, saying it will "take a decade" sounds more to me like it could "take 10 years for the next 20 years".

METR kinda has been described as a Moore's Law for LLMs, but personally I think the financial environment around AI will break within 2 years — which still represents a huge increase in capabilities, but isn't a decade.

• Text and graphs: https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-com...

• Video interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=evSFeqTZdqs

That said, I've not seen work that looks promising to the problem of, as he phrased it: "They don’t have continual learning. You can’t just tell them something and they’ll remember it."

Saying any specific timeframe for that, 10 years or anything else, seems too certain. Some breakthrough might already exist and be unknown, but on the other hand it may require a fundamental advancement in mathematics in order to make it possible to find something at least close to optimal in a billion-dimensional (or whatever) vector space with only the first few dozen examples.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#786

Post by nunez »

Ozzie_osman wrote: post #656
bigtones wrote: post #591

Andrej Karpathy seems to me like a national (world) treasure. He has the ability to explain concepts and thoughts with analogies and generalizations and interesting sayings that allow you to keep interest in what he is talking about for literally hours - in a subject that I don't know that much about. Clearly he is very smart, as is the interviewer, but he is also a fantastic communicator and does not come across as…

Agreed. I'd also add he's intellectually honest enough to not overhype what's happening just to hype whatever he's working on or appear to be a thought leader. Just very clear, pragmatic, and intellectually honest thought about the reality of things.

It's almost like having more money than you'll ever know what to do with lets you say and do what you _actually_ want to do.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#787

Post by mayhemducks »

sarchertech wrote: post #250

I’m in the Penrose camp that Turing machines can’t be conscious which is required for true AGI.

Yeah - I feel like this point of view is rarely alluded to whenever the AI oligarchs speak publicly. The link between intelligence and consciousness feels undeniable to me, yet somehow they always manage to sidestep this point when discussing "technology" for over 2 hours on YouTube.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#788

Post by bogzz »

pjmlp wrote: post #677

Regardless of the time, I am already seeing programming as we know it slowly moving into prompts, in what concerns low coding environments for SaaS products integrations. Dealing with Rust's borrow checker issues, how complex C++ might be, Go's approach to language design, Java vs C#, and whatever else in the same vein, will slowly be matter of discussion to a selected few, while everyone else is promoting or doing v…

If inference can become profitable.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#789

Post by christkv »

They are probably right and that is not anywhere close to a general intelligence but it still provides a bunch of value as long as it’s used in your own expert domain and you are not a lazy slob. We really get used to magic quickly these days. It’s not that long ago the Google employee was warning the world about skynet (internal early llm I guess) and got fired.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#790

Post by andy_ppp »

rootusrootus wrote: post #308
ionwake wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean you say this, but I havent touched a line of code as a programmer in months, having been totally replaced by AI. I mean sure I now "control" the AI, but I still think these no AGI for 2 decades claims are a bit rough.

I don't want to sound mean, but c'mon, the reality is that if you haven't touched a line of code in months, you are/were not a programmer. I love Claude Code, it really has its moments. But even for the stuff it is exceptionally good at, I have to regularly fix mistakes it has made. And I only give it the fairly easy stuff I don't feel like doing myself.

100% Agree
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