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The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

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Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#781
post #466
post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's silly. You still need a way to track and prioritize tasks even if you use voice input. Jira may be replaced with something better, built around an LLM from the ground up. But the basic project management requirements will never go away.

Yes, that's quite easy. I say "Hey reorganize the tasks like-so, prioritize this, like so", and if I really need to, I can go ahead and hook up some function calls but I suspect this will be unnecessary with a few more LLM iterations (if even that). You can keep running from how powerful these LLMs are, but I'll just sit and wait for the business/startup apocalypse (which is coming). Jira will not be replaced by some…

If there was only one consequence, and that consequence is Jira and Atlassian being destroyed, then I am all for it!

Realistically though, they might incorporate that high schooler's software into Jira, to make it even more bloated and they will sell it to your employer soon enough! Then team lead Chris will enter your birthday and your vacation days in it too, to enable it to also do vacation planning, without asking you. Next thing is, that Atlassian sells you out and you receive unsolicited AI calls for your holiday planning.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#783
post #691

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"War with Russia" sounds like someone willingly started that war, and Russia was the target. Of course, nothing is further from the truth. "Russian invasion of Ukraine" is what should be written there.

I don't see how that follows at all. "War with x" is a factual statement with no implications of moral culpability in either direction

Yeah, no idea what's going on in this thread. As far as I can tell, this connotation was just invented for the purposes of- well, I shouldn't guess motivations, but I can't think of any good ones.

Here's the BBC using it[1], CNN[2], The AP [3], The Conversation [4]

[1]https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0l0k4389g2o

[2]https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/21/europe/europe-conscription-wa...

[3]https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-star...

[4]https://theconversation.com/why-russias-armed-forces-have-pr...

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#784

What AI is going to wipe out is white collar jobs where people sleepwalk through the working day and carelessly half ass every task. In 2025, we can get LLMs to do that for us. Unfortunately, the kind of executive who thinks AI is a legitimate replacement for actual work does not recognize the difference. I expect to see the more credulous CEOs dynamiting their companies as a result. Whether the rest of us can surviv…

I think it’s actually going to save those people. They can vibe code themselves just enough output to survive where before they did next to nothing. In relative terms, they’ll get a much much higher productivity boost from AI than the already high-performing Staff engineer.

Management will be thrilled.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#785
post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

I wonder if some of this output will take a while to be visible en masse. For example, I founded a SaaS company late last year which has been growing very quickly. We are track to pass $1M ARR before the company's first birthday. We are fully bootstrapped, 100% founder owned. There are 2 of us. And we feel confident we could keep up this pace of growth for quite a while without hiring or taking capital. (Of course, t…

Curious, if you don’t mind mentioning what AIs you’re using (besides the obvious Claude, etc) and what for to augment your reach?

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#786
post #736

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's about to get repealed it looks like.

TACO

For those unaware, the "TACO trade" is when Wall Street investors trade based on the principle that "Trump Always Chickens Out". For example, buying in a tariff-induced dip on the principle that he'll probably repeal the tariffs.

Now that someone's said to Trump's face that Wall Street thinks he always chickens out, he may or may not stop doing it.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#789

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

Keynes suggested that by 2030, we’d be working 15 hour workweeks, with the rest of the time used for leisure. Instead, we chose consumption, and helicopter money gave us bullshit jobs so we could keep buying more bullshit. This is fairly evident by the fact when the helicopter money runs out, all the bullshit jobs get cut. AI may give us more efficiency, but it will be filled with more bullshit jobs and consumption,…

If you work 15 hours/week then presumably someone who chose to work 45 hours/week would make 3x more money.

This creates supply-demand pressure for goods and services. Anything with limited supply such as living in the nice part of town will price out anyone working 15 hours/week.

And so society finds an equilibrium…

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#790
post #663

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I foresee programers replaced by AI and the people who programed becoming pointy haired bosses to the AI.

Ha-ha, this is very funny :) Say, have you ever tried seriously using the AI-tools for programming? Because if you do, and still believe this, I may have a bridge/Eiffel Tower/railroad to sell you.

The majority of my code over theast few months has been written by LLMs. Including systems I rely on for my business daily.

Maybe consider it's not all on the AI tools if they work for others but not for you.

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