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Grok3 Launch [video]

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Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#781

Post by KKKKkkkk1 »

bobxmax wrote: post #462
crocowhile wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not good news when this competition comes at cost of a gigantic over inflated bubble, in which all the big players keep on sucking billions from investors without even having a business model. This hype will burst sooner than later and will trigger yet another global recession. This is untenable.

ChatGPT is literally generating billions in revenue. Cursor is the fastest growing company of all time. This lame HN trope of LLMs having no business model needs to die.

HN has turned into the Slashdot of the 2000s. No wireless? Less space than a Nomad? Lame.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#782

Post by iooi »

hector126 wrote: post #617
htfy96 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a close friend working in core research teams there. Based on our chats, the secret seems to be (1) massive compute power (2) ridiculous pay to attract top talents from established teams (3) extremelly hard work without big corp bureaucracy.

Anecdotal, but I've gotten three recruiting emails from them now for joining their iOS team. I got on a call and confirmed they were offering FAANG++ comp but with the expectation of in-office 50h+ (realistically more). I don't have that dog in me anymore, but there are plenty of engineers who do and will happily work those hours for 500k USD.

500k isn't FAANG++, it's standard FAANG comp

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#783

Post by loandbehold »

makestuff wrote: post #776
zhobbs wrote: post #753

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>For what? There is no ROI at that price point. There is no monetisation potential. I think your whole argument is based on this being true, but you didn't give much argument about why there is no ROI. 400M USD isn't hard to generate...even a moderate ad engagement lift on X would generate ROI and that's just 1 customer. Imagine going back in time and showing every VC how great the search business will be in 20-30 ye…

Ken Griffin had an interview where he said something along the lines of the technologies dot com bubble pretty much turned out to be what everyone thought they would become at the time. The issue was valuations grew way too fast and it took much longer than expected for the companies to build out their products. I think a similar thing is playing out with AI. In 5-10 more years these LLMs will replace a google search…

Everyone I know has already switched from Google to ChatGPT for most of their search queries.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#784

Post by _heimdall »

llm_trw wrote: post #634
_heimdall wrote: post #530

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure how LLMs/AI couldn't consolidate power. By design, it will move power from the individual to those running the AI systems.

Because the difference between a model that costs 10 million to train and a model that costs 10 billion to train is 6 months. Deepseek R1 is something that you can run in a garage on hardware that the average software engineer can buy with a months salary and when it came out last month it was better than _every_ other model.

Is it your expectation that as models get cheaper we won't be developing much more powerful models at the higher price range?

Its already worth noting that we already ran into the self hosting at scale problem. People don't want to run a web server and instead accept all the problems that come along with the convenience of social media. Why would LLMs, or any future AI product, be different?

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#785

Post by YetAnotherNick »

gmerc wrote: post #760
zhobbs wrote: post #753

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>For what? There is no ROI at that price point. There is no monetisation potential. I think your whole argument is based on this being true, but you didn't give much argument about why there is no ROI. 400M USD isn't hard to generate...even a moderate ad engagement lift on X would generate ROI and that's just 1 customer. Imagine going back in time and showing every VC how great the search business will be in 20-30 ye…

That's a red herring because it ignores the part where they could have done the same things spending a tiny fraction of the money.

Why don't you do it then? If you are talking about Deepseek "$5M", then you would be interested to know that they pay 7 digit salaries and reportedly have H100s worth $2B[1].

[1]: https://sherwood.news/tech/the-trillion-dollar-mystery-surro...

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#786

Post by hector126 »

iooi wrote: post #782
hector126 wrote: post #617

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anecdotal, but I've gotten three recruiting emails from them now for joining their iOS team. I got on a call and confirmed they were offering FAANG++ comp but with the expectation of in-office 50h+ (realistically more). I don't have that dog in me anymore, but there are plenty of engineers who do and will happily work those hours for 500k USD.

500k isn't FAANG++, it's standard FAANG comp

Should have been more clear, this was 500k for an E4 level role, you're correct that senior/staff at Meta and G are definitely making more.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#787

Post by bloopernova »

Tycho wrote: post #720
InTheArena wrote: post #590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon's unchecked power at building a model? Or at politics? I always worry whenever I see people telling me how to feel - rage in this case. We are in a political system that is oriented more around getting people to feel rage and hatred as opposed to consensus and deliberation. Elon is the face of that, but it's a much longer and larger problem. Throw in the complete dismisal that anyone not scared of this is ignora…

But it is a partisan issue. All these people on fat NGO salaries, all these federal workers not pulling their weight, all the welfare abuse, all these aid payments - which party do you think is keen to keep the spigot flowing? Of course, it would be a shame if they didn’t audit the Pentagon as well, definitely massive graft happening there.

I don't know any voters who want fraud to continue, but most do accept that fraud is just a part of any system designed and implemented by humans.

I personally would like to see the end of the "find gravy train, keep that gravy flowing at all costs" methodology of capitalism, because it's primary focus is money instead of the service provided. Whether it's pentagon contractors, business subsidies, or the heinous medicare and medical insurance fraud. But I don't want to cut SNAP even if someone buys a goddamn coke once in a while.

The current method seems to be brain surgery with a monkey wrench. Slash and burn with little thought given to the effects upon humans, especially those who don't have other options. Kagi gave me a figure of between 9.2 to 15.2 percent of welfare being fraudulent. Yes that's too high, yes I'd like to fix that, but I want that change to be considered, studied, and planned with caution.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#790

Post by ctoth »

gmerc wrote: post #668

[flagged]

> DeeoSeek trained r1 for 1.25% (5M) of that money (using the same spot price) on 2048 crippled export H800s and is maybe a month behind.

This is a great example of how a misleading narrative can take hold and dominate discussion even when it's fundamentally incorrect.

SemiAnalysis documents that DeepSeek has spent well over $500M on GPUs alone, with total infrastructure costs around $2.5B when including operating costs[0].

The more-interesting question is probably why do people keep repeating this? Why do they want it to be true so badly?

[0]: https://semianalysis.com/2025/01/31/deepseek-debates/#:~:tex...

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