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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

finance.yahoo.com

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#781

Post by sek »

eigenvalue wrote: post #567

90% of the comments in this thread make it clear that knowing about technology does not in any way qualify someone to think correctly about markets and equity valuations.

The crash is absolutely rational; the cascading effect highlights the missing moat for companies like OpenAI. Without a moat, no investor will provide these companies with the billions that fueled most of the demand. This demand was essential for NVIDIA to squeeze such companies with incredible profit margins.

NVIDIA was overvalued before, and this correction is entirely justified. The larger impact of DeepSeek is more challenging to grasp. While companies like Google and Meta could benefit in the long term from this development, they still overpaid for an excessive number of GPUs. The rise in their stock prices was assumed to be driven by the moat they were expected to develop themselves.

I was always skeptical of those valuations. LLM inference was highly likely to become commoditized in the future anyway.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#782

Post by nly »

giantrobot wrote: post #662
fldskfjdslkfj wrote: post #618

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The increase in efficiency is usually accompanied with the process of commoditization as stuff get cheaper to develop, which is very bad news for nvidia. If you dont need the super high end chips than Nvidia loses it's biggest moat and ability to monopolize the tech, CUDA isn't enough.

> Nvidia loses it's biggest moat and ability to monopolize the tech, CUDA isn't enough CUDA is plenty for right now. AMD can't/won't get their act together with GPU software and drivers. Intel isn't in much better of a position than AMD and has a host of other problems. It's also unlikely the "let's just glue a thousand ARM cores together" hardware will work as planned and still needs the software layer. CUDA won't b…

Nobody ever got fired for buying Nvidia

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#783

Post by simonebrunozzi »

eigenvalue wrote: post #567

90% of the comments in this thread make it clear that knowing about technology does not in any way qualify someone to think correctly about markets and equity valuations.

Thanks. Given that you clearly belong to the top 10%, what's your take on the market?

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#784

Post by rightbyte »

beefnugs wrote: post #776
culi wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you. The amount of casual sinophobia allowed on hackernews has been a real turn off. I find myself avoiding threads like these in anticipation of these comments

Nah, its about the "party" not the people or culture. They will never shake the stigma now that they fist their way into controlling any company, creating artificial market manipulation, restricting technology, restricting information, violence and threats against their own people and everyone else.

A lot of people seem to lose their minds if they hear what could be interpreted as agitation versus an ethnical out group.

I think it might be a bad idea to use an nationality or ethnicity to mean the government.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#785

Post by lmm »

ponty_rick wrote: post #665
cageface wrote: post #590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could even say that overconfidence in abilities and knowledge outside of core expertise is the critical flaw of today's entire tech industry.

With the crowdstrike outage earlier last year it was incredible how many hidden security and kernel "experts" came out crawling from the woodwork, questioning why anything needs to run in the kernel and predicting the company's demise.

They were correct that there is no need for it to run in the kernel. They were incorrect in thinking this would affect the company's future, because of course the sales of their product have nothing to do with its technical merit.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#786

Post by nly »

wbsun wrote: post #625
eigenvalue wrote: post #567

90% of the comments in this thread make it clear that knowing about technology does not in any way qualify someone to think correctly about markets and equity valuations.

I don’t understand why this is not obvious to many people: tech and stock trading are totally two different things, why on earth a tech expert is expected to know trading at all? Imagining how ridiculous it would be if a computer science graduate will also automatically get a financial degree from college even though no financial class has been taken.

It's because software devs are smart and make a lot of money - a natural next step is to try and use their smarts to do something with that money. Hence stocks.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#787

Post by jandrese »

skizm wrote: post #337

I like the chart Bloomberg has of the top 10 largest single day stock drops in history. 8 out of the 10 are NVDA (Meta and Amazon are the other two).

I feel like this is a symptom of our broken economic system that has allowed too much cash to be trapped in the markets, forever making mostly imaginary numbers go up while the middle class gets squeezed and the poor continue to suffer.

A fundamental feature of a capitalist system you can use money to make more money. That's great for growing wealth. But you have to be careful, it's like a sound system at a concert. When you install it everybody benefits from being able to hear the band. But it is easily to cause an earspittig feedback loop if you don't keep the singers a safe distance from the speakers. Unfortunately, the only way people have to quantify how good a concert sounds is by loudness, and because the awful screeching of a feedback loop is about the loudest thing possible we've been just holding the microphone at the speaker for close to 50 years and telling ourselves that everybody is enjoying the music.

It is the job of the government, because nobody else can do it, to prevent the runaway feedback loop that is a fundamental flaw of capitalism, and our government has been entirely derelict in their duty. This has caused market distortions that go beyond the stock market. The housing market is also suffering for example. There is way too much money at the top looking for anything that can create a return, and when something looks promising it gets inflated to ridiculous levels, far beyond what is helpful for a company trying to expand their business. There's so much money most of it has to be dumb money.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#788

Post by hbs18 »

ojbyrne wrote: post #719
aurareturn wrote: post #608

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re wrong and Wallstreet got Deepseek’s impact wrong. You say DeepSeek should decrease Nvidia demand. Wallstreet agreed today. I say DeepSeek should increase Nvidia’s demand due to Jevon’s Paradox.

A minor quibble: It’s Jevons Paradox - the last name of the economist who formulated it is “Jevons”

Shouldn't it be Jevons' Paradox?

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#789

Post by nly »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #609
talldayo wrote: post #606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That means the remaining 10% are similarly disillusioned by the impression Apple or AMD could "just write" a CUDA alternative and compete on their merits. You don't want either of those people spending their money on datacenter bets. 10 years ago people said OpenCL would break CUDA's moat, 5 years ago people said ASICs would beat CUDA, and now we're arguing that older Nvidia GPUs will make CUDA obsolete. I have spent…

Did ASICs beat CUDA out in crypto coin mining? Not the benchmark I really care about, but if things slow down in AI (they probably won’t) ASICs could probably take over some of it.

Well in the case of Bitcoin it's just one simple hash function. ASICs were inevitable.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#790

Post by menaerus »

thot_experiment wrote: post #764
KeplerBoy wrote: post #759

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't the largest model still like 130GB after heavy quantization[1] and 4 tok/s borderline unusable for interactive sessions with those long outputs? [1] https://unsloth.ai/blog/deepseekr1-dynamic

OP probably means "the largest distilled model"

So not an actual DeepSeek-R1 model but a distilled Qwen or Llama model.

From DeepSeek-R1 paper:

> As shown in Table 5, simply distilling DeepSeek-R1’s outputs enables the efficient DeepSeekR1-7B (i.e., DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B, abbreviated similarly below) to outperform nonreasoning models like GPT-4o-0513 across the board.

and

> DeepSeek-R1-14B surpasses QwQ-32BPreview on all evaluation metrics, while DeepSeek-R1-32B and DeepSeek-R1-70B significantly exceed o1-mini on most benchmarks.

and

> These [Distilled Model Evaluation] results demonstrate the strong potential of distillation. Additionally, we found that applying RL to these distilled models yields significant further gains. We believe this warrants further exploration and therefore present only the results of the simple SFT-distilled models here.

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