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Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

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Re: Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

#781
post #21

Everything else aside, this is an absolutely fantastic development and I really hope the ceasefire holds and all hostages are released. I just fear this will cause western media and politicians to and declare the crisis to be over (after it had began on Oct. 7, of course absolutely out of the blue and without any context...) and go back to pretending everything is back to normal. Never mind that Gaza is still in ruin…

> And never mind that Israel still has a fundamentalist, authoritarian government All true, very true. Of course the other bunch will slaughter you for drawing a cartoon. I submit that you have a responsibility to be comprehensive when posting.

> All true, very true. Of course the other bunch will slaughter you for drawing a cartoon.

You're confusing Al-Qaeda with Muslims.

Re: Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

#782
post #21

Everything else aside, this is an absolutely fantastic development and I really hope the ceasefire holds and all hostages are released. I just fear this will cause western media and politicians to and declare the crisis to be over (after it had began on Oct. 7, of course absolutely out of the blue and without any context...) and go back to pretending everything is back to normal. Never mind that Gaza is still in ruin…

> undermining democratic structures Democratic structures like fatah and hamas ?

As https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42722937 said, I was referring to the judicial reform and the gradual erosion of civil rights that the current government is driving forward within Israel, not in the occupied territories.

This is an intra-Israeli conflict that is (mostly) independent of the Israel-Palestine conflict (and also of the question how democratic a state is anyway that keeps ~50% of its inhabitants under permanent military rule). It falls more in line with the other shifts towards populist or authoritarian governments we have seen in the West. (Trump, Orban, Erdogan, etc)

It does have a unique Israeli flavor to it though, which does circle right back to Israel/Palestine: That the political force that's driving this authoritarian shift forward is closely associated with the settler movement and the most extreme voices regarding the Palestinians. This was also the case before the war - however, they took the war as opportunity to further erode civil rights, e.g. free speech and manipulate institutions such as the police.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_Law:_Israel_as_the_Natio...

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-10-21/ty-article-ma...

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-06-13/ty-article-ma...

Re: Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

#783
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran invested all its resources into proxies waging wars for it. Them being smashed means Iran is ruined on all those war investments. With economy in shambles and expansionist war failed, it's hardly "least damaged".

This is untrue on multiple levels. Iran invested most of its resources on its own military - the proxies are extremely cheap - and Iran's most powerful Iraqi proxies are fine, while the Houthis actually came out of this stronger.

Iran lost influence in Lebanon and Syria and these countries, for now at least, pose a much smaller threat to Israel. Perhaps we will even see normalizations in the nearer future.

Leaders in the middle east are also driven by their constituents, which still harbor a lot of resentment against Israel, but that will pass as well. I think this was the last chance of a significant insurgency to reorder powers in the middle east and Iran and its proxies lost a lot of influence.

Houthis have a strategic position and Yemen probably has one of the largest market for illegal weapons. But their capabilities are very limited and their raison d'être is a death cult with no future. At some point other Yemini forces will take charge.

For Israel it seems possible to strike through Iraq with some effort, and technically they are still at war after Iraq attacked Israel in . But that war is quite cold and there is some exchange at least with the Kurdish part of Iraq.

Re: Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

#784

So I suppose it's just back to the status quo? What has really changed that will make a difference in 2-3 years from now? Israel has sowed a whole fresh generation of "I will sacrifice everything to wipe Israel" Palestinian youth.

I guess you didn’t notice when Hamas sowed a whole fresh generation of "I will sacrifice everything to wipe out Hamas" Israeli youth.

I don't think this is a symmetrical situation. Life in Israel is quite comfortable. Young people have hopes and dreams beyond sacrificing themselves in an eternal war. Palestinians in Gaza have an extremely bleak outlook on the future and effectively no hope that anything meaningful will change in their lifetime, and they feel collectively humiliated by decades of occupation. Sacrificing "everything" is a lot easier when everything looks a lot like nothing.

Re: Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

#786

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Fascinating! Now imagine how offensive it is to normal people for zionists to actually commit a holocaust and make unlimited justifications for it while crying victim! This is exactly what the Nazis did, they tried to justify the mass industrial slaughter of the whole by claiming to be attacked unprovoked by a subset of uprisers and making antisemetic justifications while crying about bankers. Gas and Cry is what the…

How this war started: https://www.hamas-massacre.net/

"unlimited justifications". The justification is a massive assault by the Palestinians against Israeli civilians and the daily rocket attacks. They aren't justifying a Holocaust, because again, this is not only nowhere near it in scale, but they also aren't targeting civilians. You are welcome to review hundreds of videos of militants being targeted on the IDF's website or via other sources.

The rest of your post is unhinged racism and insanity and really has no place here.

Re: Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

#787
post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You still have millions of people in Gaza and Lebanon who got bombed by Israel. Whether it's the existing groups or new groups going forward, the grievances are still there and bigger than ever. Let's wait a few before we declare anything changed.

All of my Lebanese friends, quite young, have stories about the wars with Israel. The helicopters and bombs over Beirut. Waking up in fear in the night. They have been grieved in regards to Israel their whole life. In this respect not much has changed.

They wouldn't dare speak against Hezbollah. Or they were Shias ?

Re: Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

#788

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Such an insane take, how is adding another despotic goverment to the mix going to help?

Because it's a cultural arms race. What kind of nation do you think is capable of manifesting in those local conditions, a progressive social democracy like Sweden?

Europe had a thousand plus years of war under its belt and two World Wars very recently as that progressive democracy developed.

Re: Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

#789
post #776

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What has really changed that will make a difference in 2-3 years from now? The whole Iranian anti Israel coalition has been badly beaten! Hezbollah barely exists anymore. The Assad regime is toppled. Iran itself has learned that Israel can attack them at will. The Houthis are still active, but too far away to do real damage. Hamas itself still exists, but in a deeply degraded form. Their leaders are dead. Their arm…

Is there any way to bet against this rationale? As in, putting money on it? I can't do anything about the US having an obscenely distorted view of terrorism but it'd be nice if I could at least turn a profit off it.

[deleted]

Re: Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

#790

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the difference between terrorists and freedom fighters is temporal No, it isn’t. Very few revolutions ( i.e power inversions) have succeeded by indiscriminately killing the dominant side’s civilians. That frequency, moreover, goes down over time.

yes it is. before oct7 there was a somewhat broad consensus that Hamas are bad and are terrorists. nowadays however, Hamas are hailed as resistance and freedom fighters. Only jewish hasbara still calls them terrorists, everyone else is sympathetic to Hamas, even Donald Trump, given his zionist position

> nowadays however, Hamas are hailed as resistance and freedom fighters. Only jewish hasbara still calls them terrorists, everyone else is sympathetic to Hamas, even Donald Trump, given his zionist position

I don't think this is anywhere near a mainstream position.

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