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Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

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Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#781

Post by dmpk2k »

aguaviva wrote: post #762
dotancohen wrote: post #618

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Are you aware that NATO expansion into Ukraine seemed very likely at the time of Russia's invasion? Actually it was effectively impossible, as NATO's bylaws prevent the admission of states with active border conflicts. This is most likely (a large part of) why Putin invaded both Georgia and Ukraine -- to create permanent border conflicts, to prevent them from becoming NATO states. So in fact there was no imminent pos…

One thing I've learned watching politicians the past few decades is that laws are guidelines. If the political will exists, politicians will find a way.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#783

Post by dralley »

coldtea wrote: post #774
dralley wrote: post #749

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reflexive cynicism about the military isn't as warranted in 2024 as it might have been a decade ago. And it wasn't really warranted a decade ago either, when Russia was blowing up Czech ammunition depots, airliners full of Dutch people, conducting assassinations in the center of Berlin, and sending "little green men" to Ukraine. It could be an accident, sure, but suspicion of sabotage is not paranoia. And also, like,…

[flagged]

Russia and Russia alone is responsible for "kick-starting" this war.

And providing Ukraine with aid so that they don't get steamrolled is not morally wrong. Nor is refusing to do so so that Russia can more quickly get around to torturing and repressing the population a moral right.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#784

Post by mettamage »

beezlebroxxxxxx wrote: post #667
Cthulhu_ wrote: post #660

Earlier quoted context omitted.

English isn't my first language, but isn't "appears to be" inconclusive? It is or it isn't, "appears to be" is still too vague for my liking.

"Appears to be", in English, generally means "on first look/glance." It runs very close to "I believe such and such." If I asked you for an answer to a math question, then you showed me the answer with how you got there, on a very quick glance I might say: "That appears to be correct." It could mean they've seen more evidence to make that assessment, or are basing that assessment on the same evidence we have. Regardl…

I love this about HN culture. HN culture, in general, feels really patient, empathic and knowledgeable :)

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#785

Post by CapricornNoble »

fldskfjdslkfj wrote: post #547
CapricornNoble wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What exactly would "properly" arming Ukraine look like? The entire Western world doesn't produce enough Patriot missiles to meet Ukraine's air defense needs, just as one critical example. We are aiming for a global production target of 750 missiles/year ( https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15354795 ).... Russia has fired about 6,000 missiles and large drones per year ( https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-ove…

Take 100 NATO F-16 pilots and grant them Ukrainian citizenship.

Who would want Ukrainian citizenship? Nobody. Certainly not experienced aviators who already hold more valuable/useful passports, and are probably on a career track that leads to them becoming airline pilots and making very nice salaries.

Gonky and Mover, two veteran US fighter pilots on YT, had a video segment discussing foreign pilots flying for Ukraine....they both totally shit on the idea. The risks are too high and the potential compensation is too low. These guys have no desire to tangle with Su-35s and MiG-31s chucking R-37M missiles, likely from beyond the effective engagement range of the F-16 + AIM-120 combo.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/mig-31-and-vympel-r-37m-a-form...

https://warriormaven.com/russia-ukraine/upgraded-russian-mig...

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#786

Post by dh2022 »

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #759
dh2022 wrote: post #754

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would imagine at least US Air Force getting involved. And that would mean Russia will be pushed out of Baltics fairly quickly (assuming the conflict remains a conventional conflict and does not escalate into nuclear conflict).

I think you're imagining a world without Trump in the presidency.

Trump was the one arming Ukraine, not Obama. Obama sent helmets, MREs, and blankets. Trump sent Javelins.

Trump also got out of the Intermediate Missile treaty - which was beneficial for Russia (and Western Europe) and a non-issue for Americans.

Trump is not the Putin-puppet Hillary made him to be.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#787

Post by gosub100 »

ValentinA23 wrote: post #321
staplung wrote: post #63

It's worth mentioning that cable breakages happen quite often; globally about 200 times per year [1] and the article itself mentions that just last year, two other cables and a gas pipeline were taken out by an anchor. The Gulf of Finland is evidently quite shallow. From what I understand, cable repair ships are likely to use ROVs for parts of repair jobs but only when the water is shallow so hopefully they can figur…

A 1 in 36 million chance for three breaks in one day. https://mathb.in/80217

You can't even assume they follow a normal distribution. For all we know, ships drop anchor more on certain days or weather conditions. That's just the start of the rabbit hole.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#788

Post by sparky_ »

petre wrote: post #170
toss1 wrote: post #5

Substantial Russian activity also near UK, raises concerns that Russia would cut off UK. [0] Russian ships ‘plotting sabotage in the North Sea’ [1] [0] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-undersea-... [1] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ships...

The Irish just chased away a Russian "research" vessel. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/16/russian-spy-sh...

Interestingly, Ireland is not a NATO member, so it's somewhat surprising Russia is poking around there. Although they're still EU, so maybe that's why.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#790

Post by MichaelZuo »

echoangle wrote: post #713
MichaelZuo wrote: post #634

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No? Why would the laws of the flag country matter for an anchor slowly drifting to the seabed detached from a vessel several km away? Edit: I’m pretty sure most, if not all, such countries don’t even ascribe any legal status to wrecked and sunken lifeboats, let alone anchors. Probably most countries don’t even have a formal penalty, of any kind, for lifeboats detached and sunken, for any reason, for anyone on the shi…

The „anchor accidents“ with cables are normally when a ship is dragging an anchor over the cable. That’s property damage of someone else’s stuff, which is a crime in pretty much any country. And even if you drop your anchor to intentionally destroy someone else’s property, that would be a crime anywhere. You don’t need a specific law for anchors.

Do you not know how ships typically operate?

Vessel captains drop anchor all the time if they are caught out of port in a stormy area. And if it’s a big enough storm they are quite literally dragged around along with the anchor.

It literally happens every month on Earth.

It just’s implausible that dragging alone would be a crime in any flag country.

Edit: Maybe they can criminalize dragging it for a very long distance, say 10+ km, but I’m pretty sure the most popular flag countries do not, e.g. Liberia.

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