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Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

reuters.com

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Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#781

Post by trashtester »

robertlagrant wrote: post #768
czl wrote: post #741

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't see why progress will be a straight line and not a sloping-off curve. Technological progress often appears linear in the short term, but zooming out reveals an exponential curve, similar to compound interest. > You shouldn't see the progress we've made in vehicle speed and assume we can hit the speed of light. Consider the trajectory of maximum speeds over millennia, not just recent history. We've achieved…

> While reaching light speed is challenging, we're exploring novel concepts like light-propelled nano-vehicles Do you think hitting light speed is an engineering problem or a fundamental constraints problem?

If even a single electron moves at the speed of light, it would tear apart the universe, at least that's what both special and general relativity would predict.

(It would have infinite energy meaning infinite relativistic mass, and would form a black hole whose event horizon would spread into space at the speed of light).

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#782

Post by famouswaffles »

HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #778
famouswaffles wrote: post #776

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did not claim the state of the art was better at all forms of reasoning than all humans. I claimed the architecture isn't going to stop it from being so in the future but I guess constructing a strawman is always easier right ? There are benchmarks that rightfully show the SOTA behind average human performance in other aspects of reasoning so why are you fumbling so much to demonstrate this with unaided iterative c…

> so why are you fumbling so much to demonstrate this with unaided iterative computation Well, you see, I've been a professional developer for the last 45 years, and often, gasp , think for long periods of time before coding, or even writing things down. "Look ma, no hands!". I know this will come across as an excuse, but the thing is I assumed you were also vaguely famililar with things like software development, or…

>Well, you see, I've been a professional developer for the last 45 years, and often, gasp, think for long periods of time before coding, or even writing things down. "Look ma, no hands!".

>I know this will come across as an excuse, but the thing is I assumed you were also vaguely famililar with things like software development, or other cases where human's think before acting, so I evidentially did a poor job of convincing you of this.

Really, you have the same train of thought for hours on end ?

When you finish even your supposed hours long spiel, do you just proceed to write every line of code that solves your problem just like that ? Or do you write and think some more ?

More importantly, are LLMs unable to produce the kind of code humans spend a train of thought on ?

>Maybe drop Yan LeCun a note too - tell him that the Turing Award committee are asshats, and that he is too, and that LLMs will get us all the way to AGI.

You know, the appeal to authority fallacy is shifty at the best of times but it's straight up nonsensical when said authority does not have consensus on what you're appealing to.

Like great you mentioned LeCun. And I can just as easily bring in Hinton, Norvig, Ilya. Now what ?

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#783

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

famouswaffles wrote: post #782
HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #778

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> so why are you fumbling so much to demonstrate this with unaided iterative computation Well, you see, I've been a professional developer for the last 45 years, and often, gasp , think for long periods of time before coding, or even writing things down. "Look ma, no hands!". I know this will come across as an excuse, but the thing is I assumed you were also vaguely famililar with things like software development, or…

>Well, you see, I've been a professional developer for the last 45 years, and often, gasp, think for long periods of time before coding, or even writing things down. "Look ma, no hands!". >I know this will come across as an excuse, but the thing is I assumed you were also vaguely famililar with things like software development, or other cases where human's think before acting, so I evidentially did a poor job of conv…

> Like great you mentioned LeCun. And I can just as easily bring in Hinton, Norvig, Ilya. Now what ?

Write them too - spread the news of your "increase N" innovation ?

Don't scare Hinton too much though - just suggest a small increase in N.

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#784

Post by CrimsonCape »

trashtester wrote: post #653
throwup238 wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It could cure every disease humanity has ever known, which should give it at least a $2 trillion valuation. The lowest hanging fruit aren't even that pie in the sky. The LLM doesn't need to be capable of original thought and research to be worth hundreds of billions, they just need to be smart enough to apply logic to analyze existing human text. It's not only a lot more achievable than a super AI that can control…

Legal research is an area where a lot is just text analysis, but beyond a point, it requires a deep understanding of the physical and social worlds. An AI capable of doing that could do a very large percentage of other jobs, too.

Yes. People are asking "when will AGI be at human level of intelligence." That's such a broad range; AI will arrive at "menial task" level of intelligence before "Einstein level". The higher it gets, the wider the applicability.

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#785

Post by CrimsonCape »

damanoman wrote: post #511
throwawayk7h wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Ilya is sincere in his belief about safe superintelligence being within reach in a decade or so, and the investors sincerely believe this as well, then the business plan is presumably to deploy the superintelligence in every field imaginable. "SSI" in pharmaceuticals alone would be worth the investment. It could cure every disease humanity has ever known, which should give it at least a $2 trillion valuation. I'm…

Let’s be real. Having worked at $tech companies, I’m cynical and believe that AGI will basically be used for improving adtech and executing marketing campaigns.

That's probably correct.

That said, the most obvious application is to drastically improve Siri. Any Apple fans know why that hasn't happened yet?

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#786

Post by rl3 »

denizener wrote: post #746
rl3 wrote: post #450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In addition, it's also a big assumption that money will continue to matter or hold its value in such a world.

It is also entirely possible that if we get to AGI, it just stops interacting with us completely. It is why I find the AI doomer stuff so ridiculous. I am surrounded by less intelligent lifeforms. I am not interested in some kind of genocide against the common ant or fly. I have no interest in interacting with them at all. It is boring.

Humans spray mosquitos, just sayin'. That said, I agree insofar that just about anything is possible.

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#787

Post by slashdave »

trashtester wrote: post #757
slashdave wrote: post #712

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> current nets (GPT-4 generation) should have total capabilities similar or slightly better than a rat Rats don't speak

Rats can navigate the physical world, though. In terms of total capabilities, I think it's not unreasonable to rate what GPT-4 is doing at or above the total capabilities of a rat, even if they manifest in different ways. As we continue to make models larger, and assuming that model capabilities keep up with brains that have synapse counts similar to the weights in the models, we're now 2-3 OOM from human level (poss…

> I think it's not unreasonable to rate what GPT-4 is doing at or above the total capabilities of a rat

Of course it is, because they don't do the same thing.

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#788

Post by Vecr »

upwardbound wrote: post #606
kaibee wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Morality isn't derivable from first principles, it's a consequence of values. Idk about this claim. I think if you take the multi-verse view wrt quantum mechanics + a veil of ignorance (you don't know which entity your conciousness will be), you pretty quickly get morality. ie: don't build the Torment Nexus because you don't know whether you'll end up experincing the Torment Nexus.

That’s a very good argument but unfortunately it doesn’t apply to machine intelligences which are not sentient (don’t feel qualia). Any non-sentient superintelligence has “no skin in the game” and nothing to lose, for the purposes of your argument. It can’t experience anything. It’s thus extremely dangerous. This was recently discussed (albeit in layperson’s language, avoiding philosophical topics and only focusing o…

I forgot to reply to this, fully independent and in addition to what I said, updateless decision theory agents don't fear the torment nexus for themselves because 1) they are very powerful and would likely be able to avoid such a fate 2) are robots, so you wouldn't expect your worst imaginable fate to be theirs and 3) are mathematically required to consider nothing worse than destruction or incapacity.

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#789

Post by robertlagrant »

trashtester wrote: post #781
robertlagrant wrote: post #768

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> While reaching light speed is challenging, we're exploring novel concepts like light-propelled nano-vehicles Do you think hitting light speed is an engineering problem or a fundamental constraints problem?

If even a single electron moves at the speed of light, it would tear apart the universe , at least that's what both special and general relativity would predict. (It would have infinite energy meaning infinite relativistic mass, and would form a black hole whose event horizon would spread into space at the speed of light).

Yeah, I'm not saying otherwise. If you read the thread you'll see why I asked it : - )

Re: Ilya Sutskever's SSI Inc raises $1B

#790

Post by galahad_ »

neom wrote: post #569
hello0904 wrote: post #567

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the question I have is, who are these LP's and why are they demanding funds go into "sexy" ideas? I mean it probably depends on the LP and what is their vision. Not all apples are red, come in many varieties and some for cider others for pies. Am I wrong?

The person you're responding to has a very sharp view of the profession. imo it's more nuanced, but not very complicated. In Capitalism, capital flows, that's how it works, capital should be deployed. Larges pools of capital are typically put to work (this in itself is nuanced). The "put to work" is various types of deployment of the capital. The simplest way to look at this is risk. Lets take pension funds because w…

I can't understand one thing: why are pension funds so fond of risky capital investments? What's the problem with allocating that money into shares of a bunch of old, stable companies and getting a small but steady income? I can understand if a few people with lots of disposable money are looking for some suspense and thrills, using venture capital like others use a casino. But what's the point for pension funds, which face significant problems if they lose the managed money in a risky venture?
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