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More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

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Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#781

Maybe it just got too damn expensive. I make pretty good money and I'm still planning carefully for how I'm going to deal with it for my kids (who still have 7-9 years left before college). I'm hoping that online school really takes off, and that colleges follow Georgia Tech's lead on pricing for it. OSU still wants full price for online classes, which is bogus. Beyond that, I'm going to strongly incentivize my kids…

Aren't state colleges relatively affordable (while mostly OK academically)?

My state school (Washington State) nearly doubled while I was attending. Of course I was there between 2009 and 2013 which is where all colleges really jacked their prices up.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#782

This is nearly a strictly American problem. Much of the rest of the world has realized that society requires and is capable of supporting advanced education for all -- after all we want humanity to be advancing , right? America is still stuck in this alternate universe where it's a great privilege to have the opportunity to learn, which is of course true to some extent, but they really put it on a pedestal there. Com…

I don't know in which non-American worldview you subscribe, but America has a higher rate of tertiary education achievement than practically every European nation (source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tertiary_... ). European countries have more selective and restrictive advanced education requirements, they just don't charge for them. This is the literal opposite of "supporting advanced educati…

For the 25-64 Segment but try the 25-34 and suddenly you have a different picture.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#783
post #697

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure there are some pipefitters who make a lot of money, but we should go by averages, not outliers. The average for "Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters" is $56,330 per year, according to the BLS. For "Software Developers, Quality Assurance Analysts, and Testers" it's $110,140 per year. For "Physicians and Surgeons," it's $208,000 per year. We also need to consider that running your own business is a lot of…

> One of the benefits of office jobs is that you get high pay, stable hours, relatively low stress and get to work in an air-conditioned room. So I would still prefer that over skilled trades even if the pay was the same. One of the downsides is your job can be easily outsourced to a country with lower wages, and with remote work here to stay (IMO), that is going to be even easier than before. There are no remote plu…

"easily outsourced" haha, not it cannot! This is also a skill on its own (to successfully manage an offshore team. And noone wants to do it frankly, too much work, too little appreciation.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#784

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Touched a nerve, eh? That you did heh... I am a pretty ardent advocate for journalism and the people who do it, paid or unpaid. I've also worked in digital advertising and communications, and even spent a semester as an adjunct teaching a mostly vocational course in the same, so I suppose the $1500 they paid me in 2014 makes me a semi-interested party. That said, I've also spent the intervening time with self-direc…

-1M for a religion degree from Talmudical Seminary of Bobov... where tuition after aid is $7,549. ...how do you even spend $1M on a religion degree that costs less than $10k/yr?! Surely this is just actual straight-up white-and-black fraud, or some sort of weird data entry error, right?

The methodology is explained here: https://freopp.org/how-we-calculated-the-return-on-investmen...

This model definitely doesn't account for how compensation for clergy works, which typically includes parsonage and nontangibles. And the $1m isn't based on cost, but opportunity cost of missing working years, investing the money elsewhere, and more. It definitely doesn't work right for these and other outliers, and even some of the salary data doesn't make any sense. For instance: GA

Savannah College of Art and Design

Manufacturing Engineering.

Earnings at Age 25: $27,068 Earnings at Age 45: $30,387 ROI (Before Completion Adjustment): -$353,221

Yet salary.com shows salaries at $64-$153K, median $108K. The tuition is $38K / year for a bachelor's degree, so I could see how somebody would be in the red for a while, but it also seems that it would have a positive ROI if one were to stick with the field for their career.

https://www.salary.com/research/salary/general/manufacturing...

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#785

There are three problems that colleges need to fix. 1) Skilled trades pay better than most bachelor's degree track jobs. My kids can make more money with a six month apprenticeship than they will with all but a few 4 year degrees. If you can drive a forklift, you can make $45K/yr... which is identical to what an firsty year teacher makes. 2) There are better options than college for many. One of my daughters did a si…

> 4) Student loans are a horror that needs to stop. Young people should not be put in debt-bondage. Imagine America's financial health if we let young people start families and careers debt free. Nobody has forced anyone to take a student loan. In fact, many young adults would probably learn a lot about life, financial management, and restraint if they saved for college and waited till they could afford it instead of…

You're right. Nobody forced me to sign on to student loans at the age of 17. I did it voluntarily. I couldn't buy beer, or cigarettes, or lease an apartment, and my brain wasn't fully developed. But yeah, nobody forced me to make a foolish decision and give a bunch of money to an inherently corrupt, predatory industry that employs more and more administrators every year while every other industry has used technology to reduce their admin numbers. I just got tricked. And my degree was fairly good as well. I double majored in Mechanical engineering/applied economics. (I know, it's a dumb combination, but I thought I could get a job in the ME field, and found economics interesting.). I couldn't get a job at all doing mechanical engineering, and instead the degree just demonstrated to potential employers I could do hard stuff and math. Something that could have been evaluated far easier with some form of test or hands-on interview that we use in our industry to screen talent.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#786
post #697

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One of the benefits of office jobs is that you get high pay, stable hours, relatively low stress and get to work in an air-conditioned room. So I would still prefer that over skilled trades even if the pay was the same. One of the downsides is your job can be easily outsourced to a country with lower wages, and with remote work here to stay (IMO), that is going to be even easier than before. There are no remote plu…

If we can get AR/VR into the mainstream I bet there will be remote plumbers that essentially pilot you to diagnose and fix things.

Spoken like someone who is just itching to do their own dentistry.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#787

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Re 1, at least in the US, it's very dependent on market and path. I have two family members who have been pipefitters for 20 years. Both make more than I do as a software engineer. Another is a doctor, and makes more than they do. But another does boat repair, and makes more than the doctor. If the last decade is any indication, skilled labor - especially those not afraid to own their own business, are set to make a…

I'm sure there are some pipefitters who make a lot of money, but we should go by averages, not outliers. The average for "Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters" is $56,330 per year, according to the BLS. For "Software Developers, Quality Assurance Analysts, and Testers" it's $110,140 per year. For "Physicians and Surgeons," it's $208,000 per year. We also need to consider that running your own business is a lot of…

> doing physical labor can be hard on the body.

otoh sedentary labor can be hard on the body

> One of the benefits of office jobs is that you get high pay,

you get high pay for a high paying job, and low pay for a low paying job. office or not is independent.

> stable hours,

maybe, but it again is down to the job itself, not just where you do it. the most stable hours i've ever gotten was working in a fab shop.

> relatively low stress

well, depending on the job. also, tge sedentary nature of the work in an office can be, besides hard on the body, a huge source of stress, and one that might be hard to identify until you've separated yourself from it.

> and get to work in an air-conditioned room.

thinking back to shitting in a portapotty at a quarter to six in the morning in winter-- i can't argue with this point!

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#788

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wonder what the cause is for the drop off from ~30% to under 20%? Speculation but maybe boomer money allows their kids not to need to work as much as past.

Maybe it's whatever is causing a more general decline in labor force participation? https://twitter.com/AlecStapp/status/1481468372911116295

The 2008 recession apparently caused a precipitous ~7% drop in 25–54 year-old male labor participation rate, and it took about a decade to almost recover, then nosedived again during the pandemic. It has substantially recovered since the pandemic low, but we’ll have to wait to see whether it ever recovers to 2007 levels. It’s clear the initial government response to the great recession was too little, too slow, and insufficiently directed toward working people. Blame GOP senators and the Bush II White House.

Overall the US has seen a half-century of flatlining wages, massive growth in executive compensation, substantial decline of unions, financialization of many industries, business consolidation greatly reducing competition throughout the economy, outsourcing of many kinds of jobs, relaxation of labor laws, hollowing out and regulatory capture of federal agencies, an almost complete elimination of any limits on corporate/wealthy campaign funding, massive cost increases for housing and healthcare and education, etc.

Not really surprising that constantly empowering capital at the expense of labor for decades leads to long-term structural problems.

* * *

As an aside, it would be very helpful if these labor participation rates were broken down by age in smaller buckets. Such large buckets make it hard to disentangle demographic factors from changes for each age group.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#789
post #697

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One of the benefits of office jobs is that you get high pay, stable hours, relatively low stress and get to work in an air-conditioned room. So I would still prefer that over skilled trades even if the pay was the same. One of the downsides is your job can be easily outsourced to a country with lower wages, and with remote work here to stay (IMO), that is going to be even easier than before. There are no remote plu…

Software has been outsourced since the 1990s and still wages continue to increase.

that will certainly never change.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#790

I have 3 college-aged kids and one nearly there. Their universal concern is the cost. It has become prohibitive. Colleges assumed the trend of charging $25k to $50k per year would be sustainable. They were dead wrong, especially given the horrendously predatory loans backed by the government and barred from bankruptcy. If we fix the college financial system, enrollment would likely skyrocket.

The loans are exactly why the colleges were able to continue jacking up the prices. As with homes, people will pay as much as institutions are willing to loan them. In both cases the currently low interest rates allow the loan principal to be much higher (given that folks calculate cost based on recurring payments). If you remove the student loan system then tuition would become cheaper. However that does unfairly im…

Also AP classes and dual enrollment while in high school. You can knock off 1 - 2 semesters of college level coursework in high school that way.

I’m not American, but there are lots of stories on here I’ve seen of people being able to dual enroll in a local community college or university in grades 11/12 and shorten the time spent in college.

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