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US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

bbc.co.uk

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Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#781

Post by nomel »

js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

Also, there is a clot risk for with COVID [1] that's much higher than the vaccine. The clot risk is the reason I've been indoors this whole pandemic, so I'll happily take my these ridiculously better chances with the vaccine.

1. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/13/blood-clots-more-likely-from...

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#782

Post by tpoacher »

textman wrote: post #322

"The incidence of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) varies between studies, but it is estimated to be between 2 and 5 per million per year. A recent study in the Netherlands with comprehensive ascertainment suggested a much higher incidence." https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/STROKEAHA.116.0... So the six reported cases in 6.8 million vaccinations seems low. Glad I read about all this because I got the J&J…

2-5 per m per y is an incidence over the entire year. Assuming a uniform distribution over the 365 days, then the probability of getting it "on that day" becomes a probability of 1-2 per billion.

So the reported cases of are not comparable. They are really, really high.

And while I agree about the relative risk vs covid, again this is not a fair comparison. For many people who are isolating, then a person never leaving the house has a very low risk from covid, both personally and transmitting it. You are not asking people to exchange a very small risk from the vaccine vs a very high risk from covid. You are asking them to exchange a very small but roulette-like risk from the vaccine, versus a presumably equally small if not smaller risk from covid due to their circumstances.

Note, what I am "not" saying is that peoples shouldn't be vaccinated. I'm just saying artificially trivialising the risk further using bad math isn't doing anyone any favours.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#783

Post by cyberlurker »

wincy wrote: post #768
js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

I went to the emergency room for earth shattering headaches (no history of headaches like this) after getting the J&J vaccine last week. I mentioned I’d got the vaccine and asked if it was possible the two were linked. The doctor did everything but actually roll his eyes and thought that the headache being caused by the vaccine was ridiculous. I bet if I went today he wouldn’t be so dismissive.

Would he somehow check for blood clots? What could that doctor have done?

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#784

Post by sdenton4 »

sergiotapia wrote: post #625
sdenton4 wrote: post #592

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) Vaccination is also about stopping the overall spread of infections. Vaccination is for the greater good, not just your own good. 2) It's still very possible to have a Very Bad Time with covid if you're not obese.

>Vaccination is also about stopping the overall spread of infections. Then why are people still asked to wear masks in stores even if they are vaccinated? I've heard from the media non-stop that even if you have the vaccination you need to wear a mask - it doesn't make sense.

Because:

a) it's not entirely whether vaccinated people can still be carriers. I think it's now /mostly/ clear that they don't.

b) people are fscking awful. If you let vaccinated people not wear masks, you're going to have a bunch of philosophical zombies lying about their vaccination status to avoid wearing masks in public spaces. So, everybody wears masks until this thing is over and then some.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#786

Post by cyberlurker »

kaczordon wrote: post #770
js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

OTOH, if this being in the news causes fewer people to get vaccinated, pausing it may be a mistake that will cause more overall deaths This is the reason people lost trust in the medical community during COVID.

Yes, the fact that they are being this cautious is a good thing for public trust. We have other vaccines as well. I rather have this level of transparency then blindly tell people to get JJ and we will figure out edge cases later.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#787

Post by tpoacher »

wincy wrote: post #768
js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

I went to the emergency room for earth shattering headaches (no history of headaches like this) after getting the J&J vaccine last week. I mentioned I’d got the vaccine and asked if it was possible the two were linked. The doctor did everything but actually roll his eyes and thought that the headache being caused by the vaccine was ridiculous. I bet if I went today he wouldn’t be so dismissive.

Actually, I bet he'd be even more dismissive.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#788

Post by Reason077 »

dheera wrote: post #736
js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

Why is everyone worried about blood clots, and not that the J&J vaccine has a crap-tastic efficiency of 66.3%? Would you want the chef at your local takeout to be vaccinated to 66.3% efficiency? or 94%? Why was this vaccine even approved, instead of just having J&J produce the same vaccine Pfizer and Moderna are making, which would be in the best interest of the world? Is this some utterly idiotic capitalism bullshit…

> "Why is everyone worried about blood clots, and not that the J&J vaccine has a crap-tastic efficiency of 66.3%?"

The J&J vaccine is marketed as a single-dose vaccine, unlike the others which all require two doses to reach their reported efficacy. Single-dose is a massive advantage which will greatly speed up vaccination progress, especially in developing countries.

And 66% seems pretty good for a single dose.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#789

Post by narrator »

TrevorJ wrote: post #777
e9 wrote: post #745

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not full story. 65% efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 but 100% efficacy against death and hospitalization due to COVID-19. So there is real benefit to it.

This is a leaky vaccine, which is actually a big health risk. You remove selection pressure for lack of virulence, so more fatal strains can spread more easily. Definitely not a good thing.

I know about Marek's disease in chickens, but has a leaky vaccine ever caused a virus to evolve like that in humans?

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#790

Post by regextegrity »

Izkata wrote: post #674
joelfolksy wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Suicides decreased in 2020, btw: https://www.axios.com/suicide-decreased-in-2020-pandemmic-me... .

The CDC only tracks actual suicides, not attempts. Suicidal thoughts and attempts are up: https://www.aappublications.org/news/2020/12/16/pediatricssu... Besides, in the CDC table, "unintentional injuries" is up by way more than suicides are down. This includes things like car accidents, and is a little suspicious, like suicidal behavior led to a death that wasn't classified as suicide. Also note that the table is "d…

If attempts are up but actual suicides are down, did we just get way worse at suicide?
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