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Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

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Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#771

Post by Spivak »

bitmasher9 wrote: post #702
SlinkyOnStairs wrote: post #648

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's layoffs, certainly. But all the economic indicators suggest those are "bad economy" layoffs dressed up as "AI" layoffs to keep the shareholders happy.

The real “AI layoffs” are all the people that are PIPed because their colleagues are better at leveraging AI.

We must have a very different view of the world because in my neck of the woods companies are desperate for senior talent. And it's become even harder to find seniors now that everyone has access to a machine that can create the appearance of experience.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#773

Post by groundzeros2015 »

netcan wrote: post #534
skybrian wrote: post #276

Context: a few weeks ago, Anthropic signed a deal to buy "multiple gigawatts of next-generation TPU capacity" from Google and Broadcom [1]. There have been several previous deals, too. Some people call this sort of thing a "circular deal", but perhaps a better way to think of it is as a very large-scale version of vendor financing? The simple version of vendor financing is when a vendor gives a retailer time to pay f…

So yes, but that doesn't negate the circular investment aspect, for most intents and purposes. The risk is from this structure is mostly to do with how this affects market cap. Companies using the value of their shares to fund demand for their services. That's a risk.

Economics is circular. The baker buys shoes from the cobbler, and the cobbler buys food from the baker.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#774

Post by 34ylsh »

skybrian wrote: post #276

Context: a few weeks ago, Anthropic signed a deal to buy "multiple gigawatts of next-generation TPU capacity" from Google and Broadcom [1]. There have been several previous deals, too. Some people call this sort of thing a "circular deal", but perhaps a better way to think of it is as a very large-scale version of vendor financing? The simple version of vendor financing is when a vendor gives a retailer time to pay f…

[dead]

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#775

Post by groundzeros2015 »

gjsman-1000 wrote: post #669
4ndrewl wrote: post #664

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except the dev that gets AI done in 5 hours will have a poorer mental model of the code. Whether that's important might or might not depend on whether that bites you in the ass at some point.

But does it matter? If you write a program in Python or JavaScript, you have a terrible mental model for how that code is actually executed in machine code. It's irrelevant though, you figure it out only when it's a problem. Even if you don't have a great mental model, now you have AI to identify the problems and generate an explanation of the structure for you.

The effect of JavaScript or python code is well defined - they have an excellent model of what it will do.

The performance - how that is executed on the machine is what you were referring to. “As if” is the key to optimization

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#776

Post by padjo »

groundzeros2015 wrote: post #773
netcan wrote: post #534

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So yes, but that doesn't negate the circular investment aspect, for most intents and purposes. The risk is from this structure is mostly to do with how this affects market cap. Companies using the value of their shares to fund demand for their services. That's a risk.

Economics is circular. The baker buys shoes from the cobbler, and the cobbler buys food from the baker.

Yes but the baker doesn't just give the cobbler money to buy bread and take a share in the shoe shop in return.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#777

Post by joshuacc »

dominotw wrote: post #681
TeMPOraL wrote: post #519

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My impression has always been it's more important the build the correct thing (what the customer needs/wants) rather than more stuff faster. The process of learning what the customer needs/wants is a heavily iterative one, often involving throwing prototypes at them or betting at a solution, then course-correcting based on their reaction. Similarly, the process of building the correct thing is almost always an iter…

no customers will accept "throwing prototypes at them". my time is not for QA-ing your product. why do you think restaurants rarely change their menus.

You have a specific idea of customer in mind. Likely different than the gp’s. Many types of customers are quite happy to have prototypes thrown at them. Sometimes it’s even contractually required in agency work.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#778

Post by philipallstar »

padjo wrote: post #776
groundzeros2015 wrote: post #773

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Economics is circular. The baker buys shoes from the cobbler, and the cobbler buys food from the baker.

Yes but the baker doesn't just give the cobbler money to buy bread and take a share in the shoe shop in return.

But there's nothing wrong with that. It's not a circle; it's an exchange. Like any transaction.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#779

Post by rhizome »

groundzeros2015 wrote: post #773
netcan wrote: post #534

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So yes, but that doesn't negate the circular investment aspect, for most intents and purposes. The risk is from this structure is mostly to do with how this affects market cap. Companies using the value of their shares to fund demand for their services. That's a risk.

Economics is circular. The baker buys shoes from the cobbler, and the cobbler buys food from the baker.

Those are tangible items. Here, the baker is buying shoes from someone who says they're going to be a cobbler some day.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#780

Post by groundzeros2015 »

camdenreslink wrote: post #728
mewpmewp2 wrote: post #571

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This with the ability to research, iterate on prototypes, in my opinion allows to determine the right thing quicker as well. Of course right now the value is largely intuition based, there may be some immediate revenue/profit, but revenue/profit will take time to follow, so in a way it is a speculative intuition based bet. Financial gains will take time to follow, so for a period of time it will be "trust me bro" for…

I question the premise that faster iteration on prototypes leads to better revenue or business outcomes.

Did CAD make engineers better? certain products are only possible because of CAD but the pen and paper guys weren’t obviously less efficient, and I personally think they were very efficient.

When prototypes are harder to build you focus on answering the biggest questions. I feel like you spend more time iterating on details in CAD, even when the larger idea is invalid.

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