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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

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Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#771

Post by linkregister »

Y_Y wrote: post #375
dnautics wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the yuan has major currency controls. there is a real threat of capital flight destabilization if policies change which is why nobody sane would peg tp the yuan as it is now. that said, countries definitely make bad choices.

The IMF seem to think it's good enough to peg their special not-a-currency currency to. https://www.imf.org/en/topics/special-drawing-right

All IMF participating states have allocations of SDRs. By your definition, the IMF is "pegged" to the currency of Afghanistan.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#772

Post by throwaway132448 »

krupan wrote: post #698
throwaway132448 wrote: post #581

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it’s geopolitically irrelevant, not because it’s robust. Split the user base along geopolitical axes and see how long the consensus algorithm lasts. Gold bars don’t have this problem.

Huh? Sorry, I don't understand any of what you are saying now.

The context of my comment was Bitcoin as an alternative to traditional reserves. I’m saying that in a domain as lawless as international law, gold bars make sense in a way that bitcoin does not.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#773

Post by watwut »

a115ltd wrote: post #438

Is the US dollar losing its dominance? The answer is both A) yes and B) it doesn't matter. Yes, US dollar is losing a bit of power and influence. This is likely to continue. Making inferences about the US global dominance based on this fact is misguided. US global dominance is as strong as ever and, if anything, getting stronger. US has very successfully managed to move the game a level above currency, to direct gove…

USA is doing everything in its power to make Russia great again. It was in great position to make it irrelevant, but it has choosen to make itself Russia like and snatch defest out of the jaws of victory against Russia .

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#774

Post by prennert »

jmyeet wrote: post #754
mullingitover wrote: post #383

I remember studying pre-WWI history, and particularly how carefully Bismarck arranged German foreign policy like he was the diplomatic equivalent of Bobby Fischer. Everything was situated perfectly and Germany was totally content. Then along came the absolute moron Wilhelm, and he managed to Leroy Jenkins Germany's beautifully arranged relationships into an aggressive, tactless nightmare where all Germany's allies we…

I don't think you can compare pre-WWI Germany to the US for many reasons. In the colonial era, Germany as a fairly new state and unlike the UK, Spain, France, even Portugal or the Netherlands, they didn't have colonies to exploit. Worse, in the industrialization era they didn't have access to oil. This created a paranoia in Germany, an insecurity that were between Great Powers and were dependent on imports and poorer…

> They felt like they'd eventually get swallowed unless they did something and the end result was WWI. And WW2 if you think about it.

I think this exactly how the US administration _feels_. Alexandr Dugin proposed spheres of influence. Russia starts acting on those. China is getting more powerful. Its now or never.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#775

Post by watwut »

renewiltord wrote: post #361
athrowaway3z wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The number of Trump apologists lunatics who do not seem to understand what MAD was about is staggering. Industrial scale warfare isn't some secret forgotten by accident. The current American power-trip fantasy delusion is rightfully scaring the shit out of people, and the scary thing is the people who aren't scared. It's reaching the point that I think the best thing is for Germany to detonate a nuke between the US a…

Germany is a non-nuclear-weapon state. Our bombs are there yes, but if you use one of our bombs without our approval there will be hell to pay. An invasion of Greenland will be all but guaranteed. Whether Germany will retain its military the next day is questionable.

It is ok for Germany to detonate nukes on someone who attacked NATO. The approval of the aggressor is not necessary.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#776

Post by dcl »

tyuu wrote: post #153
IshKebab wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold is not "real money", come on.

That chart is also really weird. With log scale turned off and expanded to all time... https://www.macrotrends.net/1437/sp500-to-gold-ratio-chart Makes it look like the US peaked at Sep 2000 and has been downhill ever since. Doesn't track at all with GDP which has almost doubled since 2000. I.e. it doesn't track with growth, but does track with dollar index somewhat, which makes sense because it's tracking a dollar v…

S&P gets you dividends though, so the interpretation of that chart is tricky. Holding the S&P, you can still do better than holding gold, even when the GOLD/S&P ratio is positive.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#777

Post by watwut »

9x39 wrote: post #473
mythical_39 wrote: post #407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ICE has widespread support for what they are actually doing Minnesota would like to have a chat with you.

https://www.kttc.com/2026/01/20/americas-pulse-current-ice-a... About 40-50% are in support, so the parent's accurate. That roughly matches the political divide across the states.

I mean yes conservatives like gestapo mistreating their political opponents. It does not make it not gestapo or not lawless.

It makes conservatives who they are - fascist party.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#778

Post by wesapien »

827a wrote: post #215
jacquesm wrote: post #2

It's not losing it so much as that it is being destroyed on purpose.

The decline has been steady since ~2000. The US dollar being used less across the world has both negative and positive consequences for the US and USG. This is the Triffin Dilemma, and dates back to the 1960s; the USD's dominance over-values the currency relative to other currencies, which hurts exports and thus domestic manufacturing. It also conflicts USG/UST priorities between making decisions that are best for th…

Most think that the cracks in the financial system started to appear after 2008 (global financial crisis) and become truly visible after the financial system was weaponized through the seizures of Russian central bank USD reserves. It setup a precedent that it happened once it could happen again to some other country.

Cheers to you for mentioning Triffin's dilemma. In my opinion, the dilemma is in the ability of the host country to be able to make "good use" of the exorbitant privilege. The financial system was not only used against other states but against its own people. Instead of developing the country and building equity through the middle class, it cannibalized its own.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#779

Post by [deleted] »

porkbrain wrote: post #766
consumer451 wrote: post #274

Related is the PM of Canada’s speech at Davos today. I don’t think that I have heard such a blunt assessment of the past and future from a politician, ever. This may be a historically significant speech. https://www.youtube.com/live/dE981Z_TaVo?t=100

He quotes Václav Havel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Power_of_the_Powerless

[deleted]

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#780

Post by weslleyskah »

jmyeet wrote: post #754
mullingitover wrote: post #383

I remember studying pre-WWI history, and particularly how carefully Bismarck arranged German foreign policy like he was the diplomatic equivalent of Bobby Fischer. Everything was situated perfectly and Germany was totally content. Then along came the absolute moron Wilhelm, and he managed to Leroy Jenkins Germany's beautifully arranged relationships into an aggressive, tactless nightmare where all Germany's allies we…

I don't think you can compare pre-WWI Germany to the US for many reasons. In the colonial era, Germany as a fairly new state and unlike the UK, Spain, France, even Portugal or the Netherlands, they didn't have colonies to exploit. Worse, in the industrialization era they didn't have access to oil. This created a paranoia in Germany, an insecurity that were between Great Powers and were dependent on imports and poorer…

Even if China begins to take over much of the world's economic power, I don't think the rest of the world will accept Chinese culture in the face of Western social values.

The wave of fascism is already rising in Europe, but it is still very much under control. Like the AfD political party in Germany.

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