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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

771–780 of 814 posts

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#771

Then explain why anybody outside the US even cares?

The article was written by "Europe’s preeminent research institute for global economic affairs" which is based in Germany. Europe, and Germany, saw a significant drop in its trade to the US since the tariffs started. Seems like they care.

> Europe, and Germany, saw a significant drop in its trade to the US since the tariffs started.

Well yes that's the point of tariffs.

So far you're arguing against this paper being credible.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#772

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of Americans believed the guy they wanted to believe in, because they didn't want to believe the people they didn't want to believe in. You're assuming that modern politics across most of the World has something to do with rational, logical thought. Russia, China, Europe, the US, the Middle East - they are all in a quagmire of irrational fractures between the public and the political classes who want power/cont…

You are using "believed" - past tense. Facts change nothing. This report means nothing. These people still believe. The report is wrong. They are right. The truth is whatever they want it to be, not something out of their control.

believers explanations necessary possible and all…

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#773

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. has been a pretty big GOP selling point. Which is comical since the US is the #2 manufacturer in the world behind China. And that makes sense given the absolute size of China. The US manufacturing output continues to increase every year. What's not increasing are the manufacturing jobs because of automation. If there are strategic industries the US wants bolster, like mic…

> (...) Donald Trump (...) asked (...) to "get rid" of the (...) act. (...) However, as of October 2025 the Trump administration has instead preserved the Act, even adding an additional 10 percentage points to the advanced semiconductor manufacturing tax credit. (...) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CHIPS_and_Science_Act Tariffs and this act are not mutually exclusive, they can be complementary and seems both are curre…

Good catch. Initially it was defunded, but looks like something has now survived.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#774

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because ultimately humans are not homo econonimus, and many citizens of the west won't be able to get jobs in tech/finance/services. It's a societal issue rather than a capitalist issue.

We live in a capitalism. If something makes capitalistic sense it happens, otherwise it doesn't. Stuff will not be manufactured locally at great expense when it can instead be imported for free.

> We live in a capitalism

The absence of capital controls is a political choice that people appear to believe is just a law of the world.

If there were capital controls then local manufacturing makes more sense.

It would kill the US stock market so it's unlikely to happen, but personally I don't see how unrestricted capital and restricted labour is anything but a recipe for disaster (the consequences of which we've seen in the US and Europe since the financial crisis).

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#775

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have personal experience with this? I was under the impression that abuse of moderation tools was common due to the fact that user moderation tools and open registration do not mix well.

Yes, I asked dang by email, and he told me flags from my account have been disabled because I flagged things he agreed with. I think votes are also disabled. The buttons are still there, but they don't do anything.

It's funny, because I had been feeling this in my gut - the idea that they do have oversight over flagging and downvoting, and they just pick and choose who they go after based on biases.

To that end, I've actually been avoiding the downvote and flag button entirely. It's handy to close off an avenue of admin retaliation, but on a deeper level I feel like the reflexive race to downvote people you disagree with is the "game" part of gamified engagement.

Besides, if an HN user says something horrendous, I feel like other HN users deserve to know the kind of company they have on this site, instead of tone-policing it under the rug.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#776

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I asked dang by email, and he told me flags from my account have been disabled because I flagged things he agreed with. I think votes are also disabled. The buttons are still there, but they don't do anything.

It's funny, because I had been feeling this in my gut - the idea that they do have oversight over flagging and downvoting, and they just pick and choose who they go after based on biases. To that end, I've actually been avoiding the downvote and flag button entirely. It's handy to close off an avenue of admin retaliation, but on a deeper level I feel like the reflexive race to downvote people you disagree with is the…

[flagged]

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#777

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're acting like Democrats are as deep in the cult of personality as Republicans are, yet outside of the most corporate liberal circles, Harris and Biden are heavily held in contempt by most of the Left.

No, Harris and Biden are not heavily held in contempt by most of the Left. I'm on the Left and voted for both of them. Indeed, as a Progressive, I was pleasantly surprised by Biden for his withdrawal from Afghanistan, student loan forgiveness, his canceling the Keystone Pipeline, etc.

> I was pleasantly surprised by Biden for his withdrawal from Afghanistan

You mean the one he postponed until months after the date Trump had already signed a deadline for?

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#778

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

The incidence result isn’t surprising, but incidence alone isn’t a full policy critique. Consumers bear most taxes in general: corporate, VAT, payroll, etc. The real distinction is that tariffs are conditional. Currently, firms can avoid them by changing sourcing. That makes them more behavior-shaping than revenue maximizing. Given that the U.S. never reversed the TCJA corporate cuts from 2020-2024, tariffs are one o…

But it's only a lever to behavior changes if it's possible for domestic supply chains to compete with the costs global + tariff supply chains. My understanding is it's pretty much unfathomable for US manufacturing to compete on even with eye-watering tariffs on any reasonable timeline, let alone the handful of years (I suspect) the local companies will expect tariffs to continue. So I expect it's just lever for government revenue and citizen pain. The past 40 years or so of neoliberalism has effectively and intentionally dismantled domestic manufacturing.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#780
post #8

We will see if SCOTUS majority decides tariffs are a tax or not and push the absurdity of their position even farther. I fear that they already decided that issue when they chose not to intervene and now have the excuse of "lol well can't undo it now" ready to go. Edit: It appears Trump & Co intend to replace SCOTUS if they lose the tariffs ruling ... https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/19/us/politics/trump-tariffs... --…

SCOTUS will not get replaced, he doesn't have the support in the Senate to confirm anyone.
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