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OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

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Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#771
post #654

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let me phrase it this way for you. The best universities are in the US for a lot of things. But they don't scale. In another way, the top talent gets Ferraris for their tuition, the rest gets a bike. In a lot of European countries everyone can get the Toyota Camry of education, decent but not world class. That does scale though. Spending isn't everything, it's how you apply that spending.

I very much disagree with your statement. A lot. As an European I can assure you even public second tier universities have excellent education. Where they lag the rankings is where money matters: politics to be highly ranked and money for high impact research. But when it comes to testing proficiency in e.g. science and math, the second university of Rome ranks higher than most ivy leagues in US ;)

As a European I think you missed my point.

For science/math would you rather go to Rome or MIT? I know which one I would pick if they cost the same. A lot of it is also the people you're surrounded by.

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#772
post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The regular google search AI doesn’t do thinky thinky mode. For most buying decisions these days I ask ChatGPT to go off and search and think for a while given certain constraints, while taking particular note of Reddit and YouTube comments, and come back with some recommendations. I’ve been delighted with the results.

You ... You outsource decisions on what you buy to ChatGPT??? I am so worried for you when they decide to turn the screws to monetize it...

I use ChatGPT to find products and opinions about those products, same way I'd use Google. I'd never just click on the top sponsored result in Google and buy it, and I'd never just click on a result in ChatGPT and buy it. And yeah, there are lots of reasons I might change my mind in the future - I no longer buy anything from Amazon, for example, because there's no way for me to trust what I'm getting. But right now it's a great way of researching options.

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#773
post #772

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You ... You outsource decisions on what you buy to ChatGPT??? I am so worried for you when they decide to turn the screws to monetize it...

I use ChatGPT to find products and opinions about those products, same way I'd use Google. I'd never just click on the top sponsored result in Google and buy it, and I'd never just click on a result in ChatGPT and buy it. And yeah, there are lots of reasons I might change my mind in the future - I no longer buy anything from Amazon, for example, because there's no way for me to trust what I'm getting. But right now i…

Okay fair enough, thanks for the info!

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#774

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's where the surveillance and the militarized police force(s) come in. Especially the former now has reached extraordinary levels, given that almost all communication now is easily trackable. Compare that to when we still had revolutions, where it was very hard for government to know what is going on, and to find individuals without a huge effort. I think revolutions have become next to impossible, unless it is l…

We still have revolutions because if enough people go out on the street it doesn’t matter how good your surveillance state is. You can’t kill/arrest 25% of your population. That is why Russia/China/etc are so scared to let any protests begin even with 5 people because if they grow there comes a point it can’t be stopped with violence.

See Arab spring. It does not matter how many people go out in the street, unless the elites voluntarily give up control, as happened in East Germany (which I experienced). The only thing that matters is if influential parts of the elites want a change too.

> You can’t kill/arrest 25% of your population.

Unnecessary.

> That is why Russia/China/etc are so scared to let any protests begin

Especially Russia's issue is that lots of the elites want change too. But you also underestimate that what the population also does not want is a repeat of 1990s chaos, and Russian weakness.

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#775

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's where the surveillance and the militarized police force(s) come in. Especially the former now has reached extraordinary levels, given that almost all communication now is easily trackable. Compare that to when we still had revolutions, where it was very hard for government to know what is going on, and to find individuals without a huge effort. I think revolutions have become next to impossible, unless it is l…

You forgot gun control. Is it really a coincidence that the highest concentrations of rich people seem to be the places where citizens have the fewest rights to own guns?

Ridiculous "argument". You and your puny gun against organized forces, especially the military - laughable! The only one your privately owned guns threaten are other citizens.

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#776

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You forgot gun control. Is it really a coincidence that the highest concentrations of rich people seem to be the places where citizens have the fewest rights to own guns?

Ridiculous "argument". You and your puny gun against organized forces, especially the military - laughable! The only one your privately owned guns threaten are other citizens.

How many "organized forces" were KIA in Iraq and Afghanistan?

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#777
post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the “moat” is not AI technology itself but merely sufficient other lines of business to deploy it well, then that’s further evidence that venture investments in AI startups will yield very poor returns.

It's funny that a decade ago the exit strategy of many of these startups would have been to get acquired by MSFT / META / GOOG. Now, the regulators have made a lot of these acquisitions effectively impossible for antitrust reasons. Is it better for society for promising startups to die on the open market, or get acquired by a monopoly? The third option -- taking down the established players -- appears increasingly un…

There's no evidence that any of those startups are better for society, in fact most of them have directly led to worse economic inequality (uber, airbnb) and exacerbating climate change (LLM insanity).

If anything the current system is beyond redemption and should probably be nationalized for the betterment of society. Government investment in technology brought us the transistor and internet, the two things that enabled any of this to exist and it was massively subsidized for the betterment of the public.

Maybe we should follow that model again.

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