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The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

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Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#771

Post by zelphirkalt »

bawolff wrote: post #487
tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

Reistically its because layoffs have a high reputational cost. AI provides an excuse that lets companies do lay offs without suffering the reputation hit. In essence AI hype makes layoffs cheaper. Doesnt really matter if AI actually works or not.

I would dispute, that there is no reputation cost, when you replace human work with LLMs.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#772

Post by cyanydeez »

Mistletoe wrote: post #769
simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

This is so cool. Had no idea FRED had data like this. They have everything.

give trump a few more years, and that probably will change.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#773

Post by cyanydeez »

didntcheck wrote: post #764
bojan wrote: post #691

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"War with Russia" sounds like someone willingly started that war, and Russia was the target. Of course, nothing is further from the truth. "Russian invasion of Ukraine" is what should be written there.

I don't see how that follows at all. "War with x" is a factual statement with no implications of moral culpability in either direction

its not factual if war is a verb.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#774

Post by K0balt »

xpe wrote: post #723
K0balt wrote: post #713

The “bloodbath” will be slow but is quite likely to be significant. AI / GP robotic labor will not penetrate the market so much in existing companies, which will have huge inertial buffers, but more in new companies that arise in specific segments where the technology proves most useful. The layoffs will come not as companies replace workers with AI, but as AI companies displace non-AI companies in the market, follow…

I find this plausible. Is the data starting to show this?

There might be some, but I think it’s still early.

For the moment, AI is enabling a bunch of stuff that was too expensive or time consuming to do before (flooding the commons with shiny garbage and pedantic text to drive “engagement”.

Despite the hype, It’s going to be 2-3 years before AI application really fall into stride, and 3-7 before general purpose robotics really get up to speed.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#775

Post by fulafel »

seanhunter wrote: post #625
tsunamifury wrote: post #594

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I consulted a radiologist more than 5 years after Hinton said that it was completely obvious that radiologists would be replaced by AI in 5 years. I strongly suspect they were not an AI. Why do I think this? 1) They smelled slightly funny. 2) They got the diagnosis wrong. OK maybe #2 is a red herring. But I stand by the other reason.

The quote appears to be “We should stop training radiologists now, it’s just completely obvious within five years deep learning is going to do better than radiologists.”

So there's some room for interpretation, the weaker interpretation is less radical (that AI could beat humans in radiology tasks in 5 years).

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#776

Post by danenania »

wcfrobert wrote: post #427
tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

If AI makes everyone 10x engineers, you can 2x the productive output while reducing headcount by 5x. Luckily software companies are not ball bearings factories.

> If AI makes everyone 10x engineers, you can 2x the productive output while reducing headcount by 5x.

Why wouldn't you just 10x the productive output instead?

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#777

Post by madaxe_again »

hansmayer wrote: post #690

It's so good to see the non-expert types are finally starting to see the whole hype for what it really is -> the long tail of last 20 years of incremental ML development, and not some revolutionary tech. We did not need to have this much hype around web 1.0 which was immediately adopted due to being obviously, well, revolutionary.

Yes, the dot-com bubble never happened.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#778

Post by doctorwho42 »

geraneum wrote: post #184
leeroihe wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> It's a perversion of the free market We can, together, overcome such challenges when we accept that "The purpose of a system is what it does".

That is a simplistic idea that I am scared has spread far and wide.

A system is a tool, it does have a use/purpose in the simplistic sense. But how we use the tool is ultimately the crux of the issue, for we can use that hammer to build houses or tear them down, or to build concentration camps or use it simply to injure someone directly.

No, the purpose of a tool/system is generally determined by the guiding philosophy of the user or society. Unfortunately society has replaced its philosophy (at least in America) with the economic system of capitalism; i.e. capitalism for capitalisms sake.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#779

Post by ajmurmann »

catigula wrote: post #296
ajmurmann wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am VERY pro-immigration. I do have concerns about the H1B program though. IMO it's not great for both immigrant workers, as well as non-immigrant workers because it creates a class of workers for whom it's harder to change employers which weakens their negotiation position. If this is the case for enough of the workforce it artificially depresses wages for everyone. I want to see a reform that makes it much easier…

I want to use you as a bit of a sounding board, so don't take this as negative feedback. The problem is that the left, which was historically pro-labor, abdicated this position for racial reasons, and the right was always about maximizing the economic zone.

I think the problems are more complex and much harder to fix and more depressing. The actual policies by the Democratic party have been "pro-worker". Biden was strongly pro-union. I am hard pressed to think of any policy by the Biden administration that was focused on racial issues. However, it seems like the perception of the Democratic party is largely mixed in with leftists who don't even like the party.

I think the real problem is that the median voter is either unable to, has no time to or no interest to understand basic economics and second-order consequences. We see this on both sides of the aisle. Policies like caps on credit card interest rates, rent control or no tax on tips are very, very popular while also being obviously bad after thinking about it for just 1 minute.

This is compounded by there being relatively little discussion of policies like that. They get reported on but not discussed and analyzed. This takes us back to your point about the perception of the Democratic party. The media (probably because the median voter prefers it) will instead discuss issues that are more emotionally relatable, like the border being "overwhelmed", trans athletes, etc. which makes it less likely to get people to think about economic policy.

This causes a preference for simple policies that seem to aim straight for the goal. Rent too high? Prohibit higher rent! Credit card fees too high? Prohibit high fees! Immigrants lower wages? Have fewer immigrant!

Telling the median voter that H1-B visa holders are lowering wages due to the high friction of changing sponsors and that the solution is to loosen the visa restrictions is gonna go over well with much of the electorate. Even only the portion of initial problem statement will likely reach most voters in the form of "H1-B visas lower wages". Someone who will simply take that simplified issue and run with cutting down further on immigration will be much more likely to succeed with how public opinion is currently formed.

All this stuff is why I love learning about policy and absolutely loath politics.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#780

Post by lxgr »

bubbleRefuge wrote: post #748
pydry wrote: post #661

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump didnt kick off the layoffs. It was the war with Russia that drove the fed to raise interest rates in 2022 - a measure that was intended to curb inflation triggered by spikes in the prices of economic inputs (gas, oil, fertilizer, etc.). The tech layoffs started later that year. Widespread job cuts are an intended effect of raising interest rates - more unemployed = less spending = keeps a lid on inflation. AI i…

There is no proof that higher interest rates lead to greater unemployment. In fact, macro employment kind of boomed during the referenced period. I'd posit that higher rates actually boosted macro employment stats . Why ? Because higher rates = higher income to rich people via interest income channel = higher fed budget deficits ( gov is net payer of interest) = higher GDP = lower unemployment ceterus paribus.

This is completely backwards. When interest rates are high, the expected returns of equity investments have to be even higher to justify the risk over risk-free fixed income assets.

And that's only the indirect effect on equity funding; debt funding just directly becomes more expensive.

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