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Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

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Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#771

Post by lossolo »

magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

Yeah, that seems accurate.

"Alarm inside the Treasury Department over signs of distress in the US government bond market played a key role President Donald Trump’s decision to hit pause on his “reciprocal” tariff regime, according to three people familiar with the matter.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent raised those concerns directly to Trump in their meeting that preceded the announcement, underscoring the concerns shared by White House economic officials who had briefed the president on the accelerating selloff in the US Treasury market earlier in the day.

The market turmoil has rattled administration officials and market participants because it’s the exact opposite of what historically occurs in moments of global economic crisis or volatility. US Treasuries are considered the safest corner of the market. It’s the place investors across the globe flee toward with the assurance that the dominant US role in the global financial system will ensure asset safety.

But at the same moment Trump’s tariffs were causing foreign leaders to question the durability of longstanding US security and economic alliances, the rapid selloff of safe-haven assets raised concern that financial markets have similar concerns.

Trump acknowledged he’d been watching the bond market, telling reporters after the announcement the market is “very tricky.”

A spike in yields in the 10-year benchmark was of particular concern for Treasury officials. When the yields rise, US consumers face higher costs on things like mortgage rates for homes and financing costs for businesses."

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-tariffs-cnn-tow...

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#772

Post by steveBK123 »

spacemadness wrote: post #650
hayst4ck wrote: post #606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incompetence is way more dangerous than people realize. These tariffs are China's Four Pests campaign. Mao, a very trump like figure, decided to protect Chinese crops by destroying sparrows that were picking at them. Killing sparrows killed a predator of insects which did more damage to crops. This coupled with reality denying policies and ignoring experts led to one of the most devastating famines the world has ever…

People are so desperate for this to be rational. Which itself is entirely irrational given the information at hand.

Smart Trumpers are the worst of the bunch. Continuously inventing PHD 5D chess rationalizations for his actions that he immediately invalidates with his next erratic action. Better to just be along for the vibes than to pretend its a strategic, well thought out, well executed plan.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#773

Post by roflyear »

some_random wrote: post #235
sampton wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It also makes it easy for Chinese manufactures to circumvent tariffs. Completely pointless theater for the MAGA crowd.

How though? Obviously there will be tariff evasion but doing so at scale is impossible.

They literally just declare the item at a lower value. It isn't hard.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#774

Post by hammock »

magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

>something flipped.

China dumped 500B in treasuries and the basis trade blew up is what happened

Tariff deals were still going to happen regardless. The pause is a stop gap for the basis trade (20+x levered), of which an uncontrolled unwinding threatens the entire financial system. Fed already had a bailout facility ready as a plan B. Too big to fail and all that

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#775

Post by croes »

chrisco255 wrote: post #720
croes wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He also bragged that the tariffs bring 2 billions a day and the crowd cheered. They do realize who pays that 2 billions?

The answer to that is far more complex than you realize. Tariffs generally force export-driven countries to devalue their currencies.

That’s not how it works.

Exhibit 1:

The US Dollar devalues against the Euro.

Some claim that is Trump‘s plan to make easier to pay the US debt.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#776

Post by codedokode »

jajuuka wrote: post #12
bhouston wrote: post #2

If anyone had advanced warning, you could have made a fortune today: https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-...

I'm sure this will be a talking point for the next couple years. "I caused the biggest surge in the stock market in 5 years."

I think he prefers a phrase "in American history ever".

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#777

Post by l33tbro »

askvictor wrote: post #721
digianarchist wrote: post #616

Earlier quoted context omitted.

10% only applies to countries that have not retaliated. I assume (dangerous in these times) that any retaliation will cause reinstatement of the previous rates.

The UK and Australia, which had 10% from the start, and didn't retaliate, get... 10%. Brilliant.

Gangs typically don't respect you if you don't fight back. This is a mob administration at this point.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#778

Post by monkeyfun »

ToucanLoucan wrote: post #712
milesvp wrote: post #614

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Instead of being seen as a safe haven, U.S. debt itself started to look shaky There's also a more basic answer to why US debt got more expensive. There is no such thing as a "trade deficit". You cannot import something without exporting something else. That something else, in almost 100% of the situations, is dollars. What do you do with dollars, if there's nothing you want to buy? You buy debt. So, every trade def…

The real issue is people are still treating this reactionary buffoonery as if it's a trade policy that warrants critique. It isn't. Trump is a fucking idiot and he has surrounded himself with other fucking idiots and they and the reactionary base of fucking idiots they've created are cheering him on for doing fucking idiot things. A journalist successfully reverse-engineered the likely formula used to arrive at the f…

It's especially such a farce because what do they expect? If trump said the sky is green and the ocean is red, you'd find scores of these useless faux-intellectuals trying to "prove" the truth, and each data point of evidence would simply be met with various forms of "no it isn't! The sky is green! The ocean is red!"

In their world, any "evidence" to the contrary must be manipulated or misinterpreted, because as we all know the sky is green, the ocean is -- oh, he said it's yellow now? And the sky is red? Hah, of course! We knew it all along, it was the plan, stupid!

And meanwhile...

Most of the democrats' tiny minds struggle to operate outside of a context of rigid rules and procedures. A context of arguing a point and getting at least some degree of fair debate in return.

But this is another age of populism. It doesn't matter what you argue, on either side. Debate transforms, serving only to transmit your message to your side, ideally while inspiring them and demoralizing the enemy. It matters that you seem confident and powerful while you say whatever you're saying. It matters that you seem invincible and indefatigable.

Their world won't be back for quite some time, assuming something at all like it sticks around. They'll keep operating like robots, not understanding why an excellent diss or crude mockery matters more than 1000 additional volumes of "proof" about something in contention.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#779

Post by colechristensen »

yibg wrote: post #751

With the whiplash of tariffs, upping tariffs, pausing tariffs, I don't know how companies can do any planning. A lot of earnings are coming out next couple of weeks. Take Apple for example, how would they forecast Q2 numbers? They have 125% tariffs on all imports from China. Maybe it'll go up more as China increases their own. Or maybe it gets paused. I feel for the FP&A team there.

>I don't know how companies can do any planning.

They can't. They're saying it out loud updating their guidance.

In polite terms, on earnings calls you're going to hear "we don't know what the fuck to predict".

Follow Bloomberg and you'll hear bank CEOs saying the same thing about the markets, they have no idea what to predict or how to price anything. Right now the line is that America looks like an emerging market with unpredictable wild swings based on policy changes. That is going to drive everyone away from the US, industries, customers, and trade partners.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#780

Post by keepamovin »

magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

Sounds like a sage take (where do I study economics?), but why do people doubt the meaning is as straightforward as the messaging: during campaigning trump said he would rectify the unfair tariffs, and in the lead-up and since election he has talked lovingly about tariffs, with the goal being (as almost everything trump) domestic fortification through jobs, industry, and generating revenue from those who have abused the US largesse to enrich themselves - and now balk at a just correction.

I think there is a backdrop/larger picture (probably nuanced and multifaceted levers against all other parties negotiating), but the main I think is to shake up the global economic landscape to make it easier to improve it. Reset.

I see a lot of complex takes on here that require quite a lot of sophisticated theories...and while I enjoy the complexity and the perspectives (and - wish I had studied economics to really grok them), I think it's really just as simple as they say. And what they say they're doing makes sense.

Maybe the truth is no one really knows what will happen, and so it's a bold move but we'll see. But I believe they're doing what they think is right for America to strengthen the country, just as they say - not some 3 degree removed chess strategy, just simple.

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