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US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

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Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#771

Post by comte7092 »

TaurenHunter wrote: post #599

I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities. These securities mature at varying intervals and require continuous "rolling" or refinancing to pay off old debt with new borrowing. Significant rollovers are expected from April through September 2025, with additional short-term maturities due by June. Higher int…

>Treasuries are considered safe during such crisis.

This isn’t a law of nature. The behavior the admin is displaying is exactly the type of thing that leads to your statement not being true anymore.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#772

Post by 16bytes »

lumb63 wrote: post #625

Everyone is quick to deride this move as stupid. I don’t disagree that there are downsides to the approach, but there is a set of very real national problems that this might address. For instance, globalization and offshoring of production has made goods cheaper for consumers, but what about the former domestic producers who could not compete, and do not have the skills or capital to find a new job which pays as well…

> What about the former domestic producers who could not compete, and do not have the skills or capital to find a new job which pays as well?

What about all of the domestic producers of finished goods who can now can not afford their materials and supplies? What about the domestic supplier of that finished goods producer who has their orders cut because the finished goods producer needs to cut production? What about the domestic consumer who'd like to buy those finished goods, but they can't afford it because prices over all have increased? What about the barber shop by the finished goods plant that has to shut down because the finished goods plant cut their workforce by 50%?

100+ years of studying tariffs have shown that they are effective when very narrowly targeted. Otherwise they almost never achieve their stated goal of actually increasing domestic production.

Should we tax goods from Mississippi to NY to save jobs in NYC? After all, wages in NYC are way higher than in MS. Trade with MS pulls down wages with NYC.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#773

Post by jagjit »

TaurenHunter wrote: post #599

I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities. These securities mature at varying intervals and require continuous "rolling" or refinancing to pay off old debt with new borrowing. Significant rollovers are expected from April through September 2025, with additional short-term maturities due by June. Higher int…

One thing I am not sure about is how much reluctance foreign holders of US treasuries will have to buy more treasuries. My guess is both foreign government and commercial holdings will edge down quite a bit, even without any reciprocal activity. Just because they will have reduced US reserves, and in effect need for treasuries.

God knows what happens if reciprocal activity starts towards using another currency also for global trade.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#774

Post by jorblumesea »

lumb63 wrote: post #625

Everyone is quick to deride this move as stupid. I don’t disagree that there are downsides to the approach, but there is a set of very real national problems that this might address. For instance, globalization and offshoring of production has made goods cheaper for consumers, but what about the former domestic producers who could not compete, and do not have the skills or capital to find a new job which pays as well…

It's not the idea, it's how it was rolled out, how poorly it was communicated, how little sense the numbers mean.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#775

Post by ramshanker »

The way I see it, it is more like a very-high initial negotiation position. From here on, each country will be dealt with individually. You accept our terms and get 5% discount on tariff ! Every country has a set of red lines. Fewer the red lines better they will be placed in one-to-one "trade agreements".

EDIT: Someone from white-house explicitly declined tariff to be a negotiation. Next few days will be interesting.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#776

Post by sjakakznxx »

mrtksn wrote: post #705
lumb63 wrote: post #625

Everyone is quick to deride this move as stupid. I don’t disagree that there are downsides to the approach, but there is a set of very real national problems that this might address. For instance, globalization and offshoring of production has made goods cheaper for consumers, but what about the former domestic producers who could not compete, and do not have the skills or capital to find a new job which pays as well…

JD Vance had a nice speech about globalisation lately, he describes how globalisation made the rest of the world advanced and rich: https://x.com/OopsGuess/status/1902396228404674853 So if people were trying to make the world a better place congratulations they succeeded. JD Vance uses a bit different framing(!). Anyway, back to your question, IMHO the problem in thinking here is that it implies that there must be "T…

> is that it implies that there must be "They" and "Us". You can't just get prosperous as a humanity

This idea of humanity transcending our genetic (due to geographic proximity) tribal groups is a uniquely European one. Pretending we can abandon all tribalism and integrate the entire world into a European model is either immensely incompetent or intentionally malicious (I tend to think the latter). The current billionaire class profits immensely from all the diversity (both generic and ideological) in the west. It’s much easier to parasitically rule a divided people than a unified one. Nationalism is a defense against these parasites.

> needs to be a subgroup like "Americans" or "Germans" that do amazing things and they are very unsatisfied that Chinese and Indians got advanced

The issue isn’t other countries improving. The issue is the average America should not have a degraded quality of life (barring major natural disasters etc) so that our billionaires can be richer. A nationalist elite class would correctly say “no, we keep those jobs here because it benefits my countryman even if I’m going to make less money”. We do not have this and the wealth gap continues to increase.

> If you're subscribe the idea that people should team around these things and if you think that you won't be suffering that much and you don't care that some people might suffer a lot

Do you think parents should prioritize their children? Not saying this snidely - there’s no black and white lines here, but I think universalism can only be accomplished by taking care of our own and growing our tent, as opposed to diminishing our own to lift up others (who in many cases do not share our universalist sentiments).

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#777

Post by SpaceManNabs »

If Paul Graham is calling out conservatives for being driven stuff other than data, then you know people are losing it lol.

Usually on here you see a bunch of apologia for when republicans do inane economic policy and I am not seeing that bs on here for once...

Guess Trump really wasn't the crypto, AI, chips, wtv you wanna say president lmao. But nah all the naysayers just had TDS.

Guess Wall St and others are going to have to re-learn that sound policy beats vibes.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#778

Post by andreygrehov »

Cyph0n wrote: post #645
roxolotl wrote: post #479

Aside from everything else one thing what strikes me as particularly insane is how it’s not even defensible as a protective measure. My favorite everyday olive oil comes from Tunisia. They now have a 38% tariff on them. There are no out of work olive farmers in the US. The orange man wanted tariffs, the orange man is going to get tariffs. Now we have to hope the American people aren’t so dumb as to still be convinced…

Tunisian here. Tunisians on social media are baffled/amused because olive oil is basically the only product imported by the US.

Work with your government to drop the tariffs on the US. Problem solved.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#779

Post by AshleyGrant »

kogus wrote: post #639
TaurenHunter wrote: post #599

I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities. These securities mature at varying intervals and require continuous "rolling" or refinancing to pay off old debt with new borrowing. Significant rollovers are expected from April through September 2025, with additional short-term maturities due by June. Higher int…

I agree with you. To just offer a counterpoint, I sometimes see quotes like this one: But plenty of economists looked at the economic hole left by the 2008 financial crisis, and concluded the stimulus policies on the table weren't nearly big enough to fill it. The size of the hole is all that matters. Whatever level of deficit spending is required to fill it is the right level of deficit spending.[1] or this one: We…

> but the government does not receive that benefit

Yes it does, through increased tax revenues due to the increased economic activity brought about by the road existing earlier than it would have if the government had to wait several years to save up the money to build that road.

Also, at least in the US, the government is nominally "We the People," so if the general population experiences increased economic activity, then the government is benefiting, as it exists (nominally) for the benefit of the people.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#780

Post by pyrale »

yeahwhatever10 wrote: post #752
roxolotl wrote: post #479

Aside from everything else one thing what strikes me as particularly insane is how it’s not even defensible as a protective measure. My favorite everyday olive oil comes from Tunisia. They now have a 38% tariff on them. There are no out of work olive farmers in the US. The orange man wanted tariffs, the orange man is going to get tariffs. Now we have to hope the American people aren’t so dumb as to still be convinced…

You are right about olive oil. So why did he do it? The trade imbalance with Tunisia. Why is there are trade imbalance with Tunisia? US consumers have money to buy products from Tunisia, Tunisian consumers don't have the ability to afford products from the US. Why can't Tunisian's afford US products? This is the central question for every country in the trade war and it has myriad factors, but two of the biggest are:…

> Tunisian consumers don't have the ability to afford products from the US.

They do use products from the US, just not physical ones. It's weird to read such takes on HN of all sites.

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