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SBF Arrested by Bahamian Authorities

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Re: SBF Arrested by Bahamian Authorities

#771

Post by int0x2e »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #426
thelogicguy wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A necessary conceit of the prisoner's dilemma is that they can't communicate, and therefore can't strategize together so that doesn't exactly apply here. It's just self preservation.

Like others said, it's not about communication, but trust. If you stack the payoff matrix severely enough, there's nothing the prisoners can strategize, and you can literally keep the prisoners in the same room, and it will still work. Consider the payoff matrix in this example, somewhat analogous to the case we're describing: - Both defect -> both go to prison for life - One defects, one cooperates -> the cooperatin…

This is almost accurate. You can slightly increase your chances if you say "I will defect, but will take care of your family and give you half my income forever. If you also defect, we will both go to prison and you will be worse off", then don't actually defect - which means you both cooperate! It won't always work, but it did work flawlessly in a show called "Split or Steal", which basically made the prisoner's dilemma a TV show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0qjK3TWZE8

Re: SBF Arrested by Bahamian Authorities

#772

Post by notahacker »

vkou wrote: post #453
rogers18445 wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prisoner's dilemma has a Nash equilibrium where defection is the best move regardless of anything else that happens. If you change the game to be a repetitive 'prisoner's dilemma' with the same actors the best strategy would be tit for tat.

Yes, and this kind of prisoner's dillema isn't an accurate description of the hypothetical one. When it comes to the DOJ making a case against two people, both of them co-operating will likely get both of them harsher sentencing than what the defector will get. That's why underlings have strong incentives to defect, and defect quickly. (Defection is also rarely an option for the person at the top of the pyramid.)

Yep. Lack of realistic prospect of cooperation working and the asymmetry are key here. I don't think any option either or both of them can take will save Sam, but Sam could possibly save Caroline from the most serious charges by taking full responsibility for the decision to transfer FTX customer funds to Alameda (except I suspect there are other issues with Alameda's compliance they could still nail her for)

Caroline's option to save Caroline regardless of what Sam does by testifying looks a lot better.

Re: SBF Arrested by Bahamian Authorities

#773

Post by _5uxp »

iancmceachern wrote: post #715

It's not even as if he was good at it, the scamming. It's like a three stooges, slapstick approach to financial fraud. He went to MIT for God's sake, he could have done something positive and meaningful with his life but instead chose this. So much opportunity cost lost here, we could have built a few bridges and rail lines, done real work with the money he burned.

Or they could fund the war on Afganistan for few days/week? I like how nobody mentions real trillions lost there for no REAL REASON. Not even counting casualties.

Let's just keep being irrational. We are just writing comments, not sharing real information.

Re: SBF Arrested by Bahamian Authorities

#774

Post by scarab92 »

throw_m239339 wrote: post #178
aliljet wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain what makes this so clear?

It's purely my opinion: She was staying completely silent since the moment FTX collapsed while he was spilling the beans everywhere. She obviously cut a deal while he was parading on social media for god knows what reason instead of shutting his mouth. SBF is a complete moron who didn't understand how the party was already over for him, I put it on his upbringing given the kind of ideology his scholar parents preach…

I think he wanted to portray himself as just a kid who investors recklessly gave money without due diligence, rather than a deliberate fraud.

Re: SBF Arrested by Bahamian Authorities

#775

Post by shapefrog »

netheril96 wrote: post #743
acdha wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He’s the latest example of why many RPGs have separate stats for intelligence and wisdom. He’s clearly not stupid but his lawyers must be sitting at their desks sobbing “stop giving interviews!”

Well, the other possibility is that he has high charisma and low intelligence.

I tend to use the classical definition of charisma - in which case his charisma stat is 0.

Re: SBF Arrested by Bahamian Authorities

#776

Post by vintermann »

dmix wrote: post #669
tempsy wrote: post #664

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean obviously receipts help. and SBF didn’t admit to any intentional wrongdoing publicly. I’m sure he was more truthful in private signal or telegram chats amongst executives

Besides there's a very extensive history of state procescutors offering deals to co-conspirators early on. Even in obvious sure things they've sided on the safest possible option. It probably reflects the inherent risk-aversion that comes with a gov lawyer job. A more balanced tolerance to risk is often missing from much of gov policy making. Probably has a lot to do with people who care more about highly visible and…

> Besides there's a very extensive history of state procescutors offering deals to co-conspirators early on. Even in obvious sure things they've sided on the safest possible option.

I think it's often less about convenience and more about prosecutor's political antennas. Who wants to see the guy dead in jail, and who would be most upset at you if that happened.

Re: SBF Arrested by Bahamian Authorities

#777

Post by fredoralive »

adam_arthur wrote: post #590
rjbwork wrote: post #4

Much sooner than I expected. Figured it'd be a couple of years before the AG was secure enough in their case to bring charges. This is MUCH faster than Madoff or Holmes. Then again, he's been much more out in the open about everything. He pretty much laid the prosecution's case out to the public for them.

Madoff confessed and was arrested immediately. SBF confessed and went on a PR tour for a month

Has he confessed? I though his line was still "I'm not a fraudster, I've just been colossally incompetent"[1]. Although if he really believes that, he's going to be disappointed when its pointed out to him that some of his incompetence led to him defrauding people...

[1] Then following that admission with "and if people just give me another 8 billion dollars, I can fix everything" does perhaps point to him being a bit out of it. Or looking for the dumbest of marks.

Re: SBF Arrested by Bahamian Authorities

#778

Post by shapefrog »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #91

SBF's public conduct over the past weeks, and alleged conduct over the past years, reinforces an image of unintelligence. Be it genuine stupidity, stimulants or both, he isn't top-of-the-doghouse material. (Granted, easy to say ex post facto .) The elephants in the room are Binance and Tether, together with certain high-profile investors. Taking some of these out could likely be worth a plea bargain. (For optics, he…

It is a feature of social media society that there is such a large body of actual evidence ex post facto that is so damning. I am thinking of SBF tripping on stimulants on meet the press, the CEO of a multi billion $ hedge fund talking about how many of their investments were scammy.

Yet these raised no red flags, and were even cited as proof of their genius, how this time it is different - you can pitch at a 30bn valuation while tripping on drugs and playing a game at the same time. Genius (or Idiot?)

Re: SBF Arrested by Bahamian Authorities

#779

Post by shapefrog »

wmil wrote: post #765
throw_m239339 wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's purely my opinion: She was staying completely silent since the moment FTX collapsed while he was spilling the beans everywhere. She obviously cut a deal while he was parading on social media for god knows what reason instead of shutting his mouth. SBF is a complete moron who didn't understand how the party was already over for him, I put it on his upbringing given the kind of ideology his scholar parents preach…

I think the cocktail of designer stimulants he took every day had some effect on it.

Half (probably 3/4) of silicon valley is on the same cocktail... also popular in schools, college campus, law, banking, politics and even recent presidents had the same cocktail of pills ...

Re: SBF Arrested by Bahamian Authorities

#780

Post by hnmullany »

helsinkiandrew wrote: post #728
dereg wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's clear Caroline Ellison has turned against him. Stephanie Avakian, former SEC enforcement chief, is representing her in NY. I'm guessing they wouldn't have been able to file charges this quickly without Caroline becoming a cooperating witness.

If the charges include manipulating the prices of TerraUSD and Luna earlier in the year - that ironically probably caused the FTX implosion, it's hard how to see Caroline Ellison as head of Alameda wasn't heavily involved in major criminal activities. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/07/business/ftx-sbf-crypto-m... Getting one of two culpable people to testify against the other and let them off the hook seems a dreadf…

You don't know her deal yet. She might still be going to prison. (If my copious Law & Order watching is anyway accurate.)
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