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Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

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Re: Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

#771

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not? Plenty of places have enough sunlight to do so even in winter. Parts of Alberta have similar sunlight mid winter to PNG mid summer. Plus storage is a thing. Using a heat pump to dry NaOH or melt Sodium Acetate, or heat a large pond can store low grade heat economically for months. Ammonia, or methanol can do so indefinitely. Then there's transmission. HVDC can transport energy 10GW pernline for thousands of…

We're talking about the cost of power. Putting aside the unbelievable idea that Alberta has as much mid-winter solar energy available as at the equator, using solar to heat my house is more expensive than burning some stuff inside.

https://globalsolaratlas.info/detail?c=47.756755,-110.19981,...

https://globalsolaratlas.info/detail?c=-5.462873,137.384064,...

Bifacial isn't in this model, but it boosts the snowy region by about 20% and the tropical one by about 5%

And what will the stuff available to burn be made from when there are plants producing ethylene or methanol or ammonia in chile or saudi arabia or mongolia for less than what gas costs to dig up?

Re: Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

#772
post #632

Earlier quoted context omitted.

here's a video that shows a machine at Berkeley lab that makes a high-performance magnet wire, not sure if it's related to this project but still pretty interesting to see how complex just the wire is- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmmNRaKpBTI&t=2138s

"It looks a bit Rube Goldberg esque coming out the back" Yes it does indeed. Amazing amount of trial and error to build such a machine.

Well, Goldberg was an engineer and supposedly did construct his drawings to be 'technically' feasible.

Re: Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

#773

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As comical as it sounds, The Simpsons and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles devastated the image of nuclear energy.

The mutagen in TMNT is chemical in nature, is it not?

According to the lore it looks like you're right, but the fact that it glows makes people think of Cherenkov radiation, i.e. radioactive. Perception and reality, ya know?

Re: Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

#774
post #656
post #637

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear fission is probably one of the greatest victims of populist democracy. It seems the more modern "socially-democratic" a country was over the last 30-40yrs the more anti-nuclear it became. The raw output of markets or the tough hand of socialist dictatorship was the biggest positive driving force in the early history of fission energy. But ultimately it's such an expensive and society-tier level of investment…

> The raw output of markets or the tough hand of socialist dictatorship was the biggest positive driving force in the early history of fission energy. Is this true? I always considered fission tech to be used for the following reasons, and none of them are economic. The number's I've crunched say fission isn't the economic choice, but that varies depends on how much value is placed on 'base load'. 1. Cold war era van…

I disagree that its not the economic choice. I think everybody would agree that for 50 years before lets say the year 2000 is was overwhelmingly the only economic choice for green energy (outside to hydro limited by geography).

After 1990 specially 2000 lots of governments around the world started to massively subsidize solar and wind. While often at the same time having policies punishing nuclear in various ways.

The uneconomical solar and wind became economic because of massive government orders and investment. Even the US often simply set targets for solar and wind that utility providers had to reach. Even nuclear nations like France did so.

So why did wind and solar turn economical, massive investment around the world in making it so. Had Germany, France and the rest of the EU simply gone all in on even a Gen3+ reactor design, and had order 200 of them since 1990, it would also be very economical. History of nuclear shows that if you build the same plant in large numbers, they can be built and finished far faster and cheaper.

And that is even before we consider the huge reduction in capital cost if you go from a PWR design to a GenIV design. Just in terms of the scale of the project, there is a huge difference. Sadly by the time that technology was getting ready for serious commercialization, nuclear was basically seen as legacy and almost all government stopped most research and stop investing in it.

Imagine if nuclear in the 80s had the support wind/solar did in the last decade. If every utility in the US simply sad 'you need X% nuclear by Y date'. And in Europe at the same time as France was building its reactors, Germany, Nordics, Switzerland, Austria, Italy, Britain had also built reactors at the same time.

During the Kyoto protocol talks, France already had a mostly green grid because of nuclear. But somehow essentially nobody copied this success story because it simply wasn't politically viable in most places. It took decade plus after Kyoto before wind/solar were commercially viable but really only if you don't consider intermittency a problem and the market doesn't give you a penalty for it (it usually didn't because before wind/solar that just wasn't an issue). Yet despite solar and wind not being economical, massive investment in it happened and eventually it was made economical thanks to economics of scale.

I would claim if all the investment that was made in wind/solar since 1992 had been made in nuclear, we would produce more green energy now and the cost curve would be driven even lower, and baseload power would be solved as intermittency is simply not a thing. We would not need to redesign grids because nuclear plants would map nicely onto the current grid, if you just replace coal with nuclear.

So, its all about economics of scale, that makes it energy production cheap. Putting up huge wind mills is cheap because there are lots of trained people to do it, the factories can produce large volumes. The largest wind mills now are by themselves large then a whole GenIV plant would be. And produce like 95% less energy and not even consistently.

> I always considered fission tech to be used for the following reasons, and none of them are economic.

You missed that it is green and no CO2. That was not a reason anybody cared about before 2000 but since then it was part of the rational in some countries.

I would like to hear why you think fission can't be economic in principle. Maybe you can make the argument that Gen3 reactors can't be economical but based on first principles, fission itself can be economical if you had economics of scale seems a stretch.

Re: Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

#775

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think fissions failure is a inability to plan for complete failure scenarios, were society folds in on itself, suppliers are no longer available or power plants are actually fought over. Are you referring to the need for electricity now at the Ukraine plants? Newer technologies such as NuScale require no external electricity for their cooling. The reaction only occurs if there is water and when all the water evap…

There has been a major back-logging in nuclear equipments investments, so big in fact, that some countries who should by right be netto exporters of energy (france) became importers. Its a valid technology in a theoretical world, that does all the upkeep measures, does actual credible threat analysis. I have yet to see such a world.

Its simply about economics of scale.

If you built nuclear at scale, then these problems solve themselves. Just as France solved them in 15 years in the 70/80s.

Just as these problems were solved for solar/wind by economics of scale.

Solar/wind was not economical, it was basically forced into being economical by creating economics of scale.

Re: Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

#776
post #175

After a few more major breakthroughs we'll be where fission was in 1942 after Fermi made the first man made neutron chain reaction. After that, we can see what a practical electricity producing plant looks like, and see how much people actually care about small amounts of tritium radiation. At the moment fuel costs in fission are like 5-10% of total costs for a fission fleet. In fusion it could be lower, but that wil…

Fuel is hardly the only advantage, the major issue with fission is the enormous costs of trying to avoid problems or cleanup after them. Thus 24/7 security, redundancy on top of redundancy, walls thick enough to stop aircraft etc. Fission is still by far the most expensive power source even with massive subsides and is only even close to economically viable as base load power backed up with peaking power plants. In t…

Came here for the F.U.D and you did not disappoint.

>. Fission is still by far the most expensive power source even with massive subsides and is only even close to economically viable as base load power backed up with peaking power plants.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/748580/electricity-cost-...

Seems Solar is the most expensive, and by a large margin?

It looks like nuclear is cheaper vs almost all "renewables"?

There is a nuclear power plant ~10KM from me that set world records:

- On October 7, 1994, Pickering Unit 7 set the world record for continuous runtime at 894 days, a record that stood for 22 years.

Can you provide the number of days that "WIND" or "Solar" have provided continuous power for?

That complexity and expense is because you are building machines which can run for 894 days NON-STOP. (CANDU plants can be refuelled while operating)

Diesel locomotives are expensive, a lot of this is attributed to the engine designed to run at high-output for an extended amount of time.

Re: Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

#777
post #514

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a lot of background on nuclear costs. From https://constructionphysics.substack.com/p/why-are-nuclear-p... & other sources, I've heard safety standards around radiation were set higher than ever proven necessary, and also ratchet up to obviate any cost gains per unit output.

Safety standards were set higher and higher because accidents kept happening, resulting in some well-known extremely large scale disasters and numerous minor ones. As with every industry, the rules were written with blood. When you are building a power plant which has the capability of making a significant portion of your country permanently incompatible with human life, you generally want to be really sure you aren'…

There was simply a false assumption about how dangerous radiation was. Some of this still persists to this day.

A nuclear reactor that had the same radiation as a coal plant would not be legal? How does this make any sense at all?

The Safety standards were actually put at to high a level to early, specially given how instantly save nuclear was.

Consider this, how safe were coal plants? Would nuclear instead of coal have saved 100000s of lives since then? Yes of course nuclear would have, even if you had an accident once in a while.

The problem is that there was 0 tolerance for nuclear accident, because of populist nonsense, but if coal plant and supply chain killed 5 people here 10 people and 1000s of people get sick, nobody cares.

So the reality is, that nuclear went uneconomical because nuclear and existing power production (mostly coal, later gas) were no treated the same in terms of their safety requirements.

> When you are building a power plant which has the capability of making a significant portion of your country permanently incompatible with human life

That's not actually what happens. 3 Mile Island or Fukushima didn't even remotely come close to what you describe. And even for Chernobyl this is questionable statement. And Chernobyl was a type of reactor not built in the West, so in the West something that bad simply can't happen with PWRs.

Re: Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

#778
post #175

After a few more major breakthroughs we'll be where fission was in 1942 after Fermi made the first man made neutron chain reaction. After that, we can see what a practical electricity producing plant looks like, and see how much people actually care about small amounts of tritium radiation. At the moment fuel costs in fission are like 5-10% of total costs for a fission fleet. In fusion it could be lower, but that wil…

Fuel is hardly the only advantage, the major issue with fission is the enormous costs of trying to avoid problems or cleanup after them. Thus 24/7 security, redundancy on top of redundancy, walls thick enough to stop aircraft etc. Fission is still by far the most expensive power source even with massive subsides and is only even close to economically viable as base load power backed up with peaking power plants. In t…

> the major issue with fission is the enormous costs of trying to avoid problems or cleanup after them. Thus 24/7 security, redundancy on top of redundancy, walls thick enough to stop aircraft etc.

A fusion reactor will also require wall thick enough to stop aircraft. Security will likey be the same to. And there is no fundamental reason why fusion should require any less for any of these.

In fact the actual cost of nuclear is CAPX and comes from the large civil engineering project with high specification, the steam turbine and water towers.

There are lots of fission based reactor designs that have non of these things. So nothing you describe has really much to do with 'fission' itself. Fission plants can also be made so that airborn radiation is practically impossible.

We simply stopped fundamentally advancing fission reactors in the early 70s and instead of solving problems fundamentally, we added lots of regulation.

Re: Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

#779

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It unambiguously means nuclear reactor in context and is widely used. The only people who even pretend it doesn't are the ones simultaneously making disingenuous arguments about why renewables are terrible and we immediately need to drop them and wait 50 years for nuclear to save the day. The mock outrage is tiresome and transparent.

Wikipedia disagrees: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuke As do I, I personally have never heard someone refer to a nuclear fission power plant as a nuke, but I guess I don't hang around with the same people as you...

As i have posted here many times, i live very close to a nuclear power plant.

Everyone in the area simply calls it "the nuke plant".

It is a directional landmark : "yeah, so once you get to the nuke plant turn left...."

"Once you see the nuke plant you know you are getting close"..

Its full name is a mouth full : Pickering Nuclear Generating Station.

Citing wikipedia sometimes backfires.

Re: Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

#780
post #587

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that's simply still not true. the last three plants built in Europe (England, France and Finland) has been very expensive because they've all been first of its kind and there hasn't really been built anything else. but if you take a look at what's happening elsewhere in the world KHNP for example has their standardized APR1400 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/APR-1400 reactor that seems to be very affordable Poland ju…

It’s not just the United Kingdom that has had issues with APR-1400. United Arab Emirates has had massive issues. Unit 1 began construction in 2012 and was “completed” in 2018, but didn’t enter commercial operation until 2021 due to literally hundreds of issues. “In December 2018, it was reported that voids were found in the concrete containment buildings for units 2 & 3. Grease was found to have leaked through the un…

The reality is that these are learning costs.

If Britain decided to build 10 APR-1400 in the next 10 years with each one they would improve.

France built like 50 reactors in 15 years with 60s technology. Yes they had issue early on but after a while they were completing reactors within 4-5 years and very few issues.

The reality is from 2000 to 2020 every country in Europe could have 100% green energy if they had just started building multiple reactors every year.

Germany could have easily have a green grid by now. A nation like Germany could very much have gone and do that, just as France did in 1980s.

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