Paul Graham: https://mobile.twitter.com/paulg/status/1545547177849667585
Let me answer that: they do not want to be owned by someone who doesn't want to.
But they want the 40B more.
Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement
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Re: Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement
#772For anyone thinking he can pay the 1B$ termination fee and walk away, it's not that simple. The 1B$ is a "reverse breakup" fee, and applies when an outside force (like SEC or financing) prevents the deal. That 1B$ has nothing to do with any choices on either side, and is unlikely to factor into this process. At this point they're clearly going to trial, and it's not unlikely that the cost to Elon will be somewhere in…
So my hunch that this could lead to him going broke isn't completely off base? I figure he ends up having to pay $10E+10, and everyone knows it, so he gets short-squeezed in Tesla stock, then margin called on any loans against his stock... then POOF
> he gets short-squeezed in Tesla stock
What?
Re: Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement
#773It's somewhat hilarious to think that even if Twitter were to settle modestly for $5bn, that would be more than double of all profit that Twitter has ever generated as a company.
In a way, Twitter played Musk's ego to perfection and he didn't see it until its too late. In fact I'm not sure he even admits it to himself yet.
Re: Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement
#774Earlier quoted context omitted.
So my hunch that this could lead to him going broke isn't completely off base? I figure he ends up having to pay $10E+10, and everyone knows it, so he gets short-squeezed in Tesla stock, then margin called on any loans against his stock... then POOF
$10 bn out of $200+ bn won't make him go broke though. Don't see the logic in that, Mike.
He doesn't have $200,000,000,000 in cash.. he has stock, the value of which is exclusively depended on buyers exchanging their $ for it. There's nothing stopping any publicly traded stock from collapsing in value to the physical assets of the company minus any debts or liabilities.
According to this thing I found on the internet[1], if I read it correctly, Tesla is worth $31B if it were stripped and sold.
Most of Elon's wealth is Tesla stock... far more than the actual value of the company, by a factor of more than 5. If he has any debts against his stock, those could be his downfall.
[1] - https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tsla/financials/...
Re: Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement
#775The filed letter ( https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922... ) isn't the knockdown argument I would be expecting. Musk is saying, you haven't demonstrated your numbers are accurate. But having signed the merger agreement and waived due diligence, I think he needs to demonstrate that they are _not_ accurate. Complaining Twitter rate-limited his API access (which would be very foolish on their par…
I think many of you guys are missing the forrest from the trees here. He tanked his Tesla shares to do this deal & to no small part due to Bill Gates. I am sure this express more of his nervousness on just how much more expensive this deal was becoming as it was costing him a lot more than the list price due to him not taking into account how his other investors in his other companies would take the news. He's a smar…
I don't agree with the Bill gates part but you are fundamentally right.
Elon signed this deal before the biggest stock market crash for about 15 years. The deal is extremely expensive for him right now in terms of tesla shares.
He is just buying time and hoping tesla shares increase in the meantime.
He KNOWS he HAS to complete this deal legally.
That's it. It's not complicated.
Re: Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement
#776Earlier quoted context omitted.
By 1%, and they corrected it?
This whole article and their filings avoid using percentages, specifically because it’s misleading at their size. Absolute numbers make more sense. Regardless, “this is not the first time Twitter reported erroneous metrics around users” is the problem with them.
Why you think absolute number make more sense ?
Re: Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement
#777The best thing that could come out of this would be Twitter forcing Elon to make the purchase, then Elon closing the company down out of spite. In that case, everybody I don't like loses, which is pretty close to me winning, I think.
His buying offer includes a fair number of Co financers, he can't just close on them. You just have to look at what happened to solar city (or even the genesis of starlink as a feeder for SpaceX) to know that not screwing with his big investors is the one thing he seems to take seriously without letting his ego screw it all up.
Re: Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement
#778Earlier quoted context omitted.
Having to spend $15B as the cost for making an impulsive decision (when you can afford it) is a first world problem.
When does a decisions stop being impulsive? Probably at point when enough lawyers are hired to write a contract...
It probably depends on how much you need to think about it. If you have a minion to whom you can say "I'd like to buy Twitter, go figure it out, then let me know where to sign", there's a lot of room for being impulsive.
Re: Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement
#779Earlier quoted context omitted.
How could they refuse after being compelled by a court ruling? Did they appeal / sue you back? Can't see how they could simply say... "no".
When you have a judgement you can send it to collections, but often people just don't pay these things. It's really hard to collect for even small things like evictions.
> send it to collections
When my now-adult son was in high school, he had a summer job working as a moving man for a friend's dad's company. The company had a contract with the local constable's office. One of my son's and his friend's assignments was to drive a truck around to the offices of a very-big shopping mall and to meet a constable to collect a seven-figure court judgment that hadn't been paid. The constable, my son, and his friend walked into the management office; the constable presented the writ of execution of the judgment, and my son and his friend started unplugging and loading up office equipment and furniture to be hauled off and sold at auction. The manager said "Wait, wait"; a hour later, a cashier's check arrived for the amount of the judgment.
Re: Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement
#780Chancery courts will compel performance of this transaction absent a showing of an material adverse advent. Very, very high bar. The buyer is a highly sophisticated investor and the grounds that he is alleging form the basis of the breach of contract were and are public information that has not materially changed nor been alleged to have materially changed since the signing of the merger agreement. Moreover, and most…
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