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How to Think for Yourself

paulgraham.com

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Re: How to Think for Yourself

#771

Post by qPM9l3XJrF »

m4eta wrote: post #620
ryeguy_24 wrote: post #615

Am I the only one is getting pretty bored of "formula for success" content? This essay and other's like it, without evidence or data, implies that some of us know the formula for success. I get it, the things that change convention are unconventional at first. This is the definition of unconventional. I agree with the general vector of his essay but this is just boring to me. Here is my formula for success (in case a…

Humans are excellent at finding patterns where there are none. I don't think that changes when a bunch of 0s end up in your bank account.

A successful investor is almost by definition someone who's good at finding and exploiting patterns in the market.

Re: How to Think for Yourself

#772

Post by Sniffnoy »

davidivadavid wrote: post #760
dang wrote: post #637

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see that here. I see someone trying to figure out things that interest him. As for unconventional ideas and observations, here's one: Political extremists [...] think themselves nonconformists, but actually they're niche conformists. Their opinions may be different from the average person's, but they are often more influenced by their peers' opinions than the average person's are. The material of that bit may…

The phenomenon is called "conformity." Nothing in it ever suggested it only applies to large groups. Reading the first paragraph of Wikipedia will tell you as much.

Nonetheless, people do in fact make that mistake -- such as the niche conformists PG mentions -- so it is worth rebutting, and doing so in an understandable manner. The fact that you may not have seen a particular mistake, does not mean the mistake is not out there (and personally, based on my own experience, I'd say this one is rather common).

Re: How to Think for Yourself

#773

Post by qPM9l3XJrF »

cratermoon wrote: post #742
ryeguy_24 wrote: post #615

Am I the only one is getting pretty bored of "formula for success" content? This essay and other's like it, without evidence or data, implies that some of us know the formula for success. I get it, the things that change convention are unconventional at first. This is the definition of unconventional. I agree with the general vector of his essay but this is just boring to me. Here is my formula for success (in case a…

This article is self-contradictory. The premise of the article is that you have to be unconventional and do things others aren't do to be successful. And then the author "proves" the premise by saying, "just like all these other successful people did!" The formulae are all driven by survivorship bias anyway.

It can simultaneously be true that to be successful in your field, you need to be unconventional relative to that field, and also that the means and methods for being usefully unconventional transfer across fields.

"This article is self-contradictory. The article says good programmers write code in a way that doesn't cause surprises for the reader. But the only way for a program to be totally unsurprising is if it's an exact copy of another program which already exists!"

...

"The formulae are all driven by survivorship bias anyway."

In PG's case, he's had a chance to observe a lot of startups, both successes and failures.

But even aside from this, survivorship bias is mainly a problem in the presence of downside risk. Let's say we look at Olympic champions and find that they all trained really hard. You cry: "Survivorship bias! It could be that you will train really hard and not become an Olympic champion!" Yes. It could be. But since the risks of training hard are relatively low, you may as well go ahead and train hard if being an Olympic champion is a serious goal for you.

Re: How to Think for Yourself

#774

Post by matkoniecz »

ekianjo wrote: post #722
jolux wrote: post #632

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many successful people overrate their personal characteristics and underrate the degree to which they were merely in the right place at the right time and such. Fortune favors the prepared, of course, but I personally believe there are far more people in the world who are adequately prepared for success who do not succeed because they are under-resourced or poorly connected.

> which they were merely in the right place at the right time and such. If you are successful several times against the odds it's probably not just mere coincidence anymore. You know, stats.

If someone lucky to be in area/time of great development or inherited a lot of money, or have a good connections...

Then following your advise in less lucky situation is likely to fail.

Re: How to Think for Yourself

#775

Post by b0rsuk »

ardit33 wrote: post #629
ryeguy_24 wrote: post #615

Am I the only one is getting pretty bored of "formula for success" content? This essay and other's like it, without evidence or data, implies that some of us know the formula for success. I get it, the things that change convention are unconventional at first. This is the definition of unconventional. I agree with the general vector of his essay but this is just boring to me. Here is my formula for success (in case a…

I don't know, but I rather hear sporting/fitness advice from someone that won NBA finals, or the soccer World Cup, then just some random loser. The winner at least can tell you how they did succeed personally, even if they have no comprehensive studies with data. On the other hand, you are just a random guy from the internet, and offering advice with no data at all. You might be broke and posting from your mom's base…

Say Hellooo to survivorship bias, then!! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

You're throwing half of the information away. You need to know not just what to do, but also what not to do. Losers can teach you about mistakes, injuries etc.

Re: How to Think for Yourself

#776

Post by smabie »

andrei_says_ wrote: post #732
ryeguy_24 wrote: post #615

Am I the only one is getting pretty bored of "formula for success" content? This essay and other's like it, without evidence or data, implies that some of us know the formula for success. I get it, the things that change convention are unconventional at first. This is the definition of unconventional. I agree with the general vector of his essay but this is just boring to me. Here is my formula for success (in case a…

This is what I came here to write. “How to think for yourself... let me teach you!” I’m not sure how reading the advice of one of the most privileged and powerful people in the world relates to my experiences. I am not a VC. What if I am unable to apply these secrets of “thinking for myself” as they have been generously mansplained, whitesplained, rich-splained and VC-sprained and neoliberal-sprained to me? Probably…

why are you so upset?

Re: How to Think for Yourself

#777

Post by gtsop »

anonymouse008 wrote: post #711
gtsop wrote: post #653

Accept the duality of your human nature. You think as a collective and as an individual at the same time. It's a matter of budget. When you do things that don't matter too much to you, you are damn happy to think exactly like the next guy, reusing the existing knowledge as is without a second thought. For instance: how do you boil an egg? For all I care, I leave it in boiled water for 10 minutes. I am more than happy…

It takes extreme discipline to know what you should question vs. what you shouldn’t. There’s a line from some famous SVite that agrees with your sentiment - something about picking the right horses and more about focusing on the right things. A lot of this ‘how to boil a perfect egg’ competition comes not from the love of the pursuit (personally I have a much better day with a soft yolk), but because of the ‘prestige…

Agreed. Also, there is a spectrum between extreme skeptisism vs not questioning at all

For instance, getting back to the egg example, questioning what is the best way way to boil the egg can reveal to you a few known unconventional methods. But then you are on square 1 again, are you going to question those newly learned methods that others have put so much time in figuring out or just conform and accept them as they are?

The point is, it's not a black a white situation: I care for X, I don't care for Y. It's more of a: I care a little for X, I care a lot for Y and I don't give a damn about Z. Leading you to questioning various topics in different depth

Re: How to Think for Yourself

#778

Post by nevertoolate »

mdorazio wrote: post #713
Kiro wrote: post #681

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's your definition of meaningful and rewarding? I'm an entrepreneur because I love waking up every day and do whatever I feel like. Nothing can be more rewarding for me. I'm not even that interested in what I'm building and it's certainly not something unique or special but it pays the bills and lets me be free.

For myself and most people in my circle of friends it's roughly: actively advancing the level of humanity. That means different things to different people - for some it's working on autonomous vehicles, for others it's space exploration, for others it's fighting climate change or poverty, etc. I think this is also related to age, though. When I was younger, most people I knew thought freedom and money were the best p…

Wow! Downvoted? Wake up people, we are not so far away from a kind of an endgame of our current society and you feel injured by being called immature - it may mean that you are...

Re: How to Think for Yourself

#780

Post by bsdz »

ryeguy_24 wrote: post #615

Am I the only one is getting pretty bored of "formula for success" content? This essay and other's like it, without evidence or data, implies that some of us know the formula for success. I get it, the things that change convention are unconventional at first. This is the definition of unconventional. I agree with the general vector of his essay but this is just boring to me. Here is my formula for success (in case a…

> Here is my formula for success (in case anyone cares): Enjoy life, try to make the world better, be a good person, go towards your passions (whether for hobby or career) and cultivate relationships because that seems to be the thing people regret most when they die.

A nice mantra. Not dissimilar to the top of PG's to do list. There he also describes "the biggest regrets of the dying"..

"Don't ignore your dreams; don't work too much; say what you think; cultivate friendships; be happy."

http://www.paulgraham.com/todo.html

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