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OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

economist.com

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Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#761

Post by oblio »

Bombthecat wrote: post #751
oblio wrote: post #504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> chips with brain matter and or light The... what now?

https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/12/11/1084926/human-br... They are getting better, faster etc etc. And I get down voted again for the truth people don't want to hear lol

You're not technically wrong, but that looks like tech that might be available decades from now. Even quantum computers might be decades away from practical applications, even though we've been trying to produce prototypes for decades now. Light based (optical) computers are in the same place or probably even further behind.

They'll probably all help in the future, but the current LLM craze doesn't seem to be helped by them at this moment in time, and an economic cycle like this has a boom phase of at most 10 years. So any changes in basic computing hardware will probably help with the next LLM++ tech.

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#762

Post by gck1 »

dbbk wrote: post #716
atombender wrote: post #538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought that, too, but lately I've been using OpenCode with Claude Opus, rather than Claude Code, and have been loving it. OpenCode has LSPs out of the box (coming to Claude Code, but not there yet), has a more extensive UI (e.g. sidebar showing pending todos), allows me to switch models mid-chat, has a desktop app (Electron-type wrapper, sure, but nevertheless, desktop; and it syncs with the TUI/web versions so yo…

Does OpenCode work with their subscription Max plan or is it API pricing only?

It can, but the auth & communication to Anthropic's APIs is basically reverse engineered from Claude Code. While it works, and it seems Antropic is choosing to look the other way, it _may_ result in your account getting banned, as I'm pretty sure it's against their TOS.

I haven't experienced this myself, but RooCode does something similar to OpenCode's approach and the maintainer has reported some bans [1].

Google on the other hand, is being very strict about keeping you locked in to their tools, unless you use API keys, of course.

[1] https://github.com/RooCodeInc/Roo-Code/pull/10077#issuecomme...

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#763

Post by _ache_ »

agentifysh wrote: post #105
_ache_ wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bart was a flop. Google search is losing market share to other LLM providers. Gemini adoption is low, people around me prefer OpenAI because it is good enough and known. But on the contrary, Nano Banana is very good, so I don't know. And in the end, I'm pretty confident Google will be the AI race winner, because they got the engineers, they tech background and the money. Unless Google Adsense die, they can continue t…

what are you talking about Gemini adoption has tripled in a few months alone and have around 18% of marketshare and its accelerating.

I'm talking about adoption around me. I didn't check the data. Glad it works for them outside of people around me, didn't know that.

Is it relative adoption or absolute ? I mean, the people using Gemini are they new or coming from another provider, like OpenAI ? (said differently: Is Google eating OpenAI lunch or just reaching new customers ?)

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#764

Post by aurareturn »

rurp wrote: post #676
aurareturn wrote: post #519

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So do all their competitors.

Google and Microsoft have immense money printing machines. They can lose many billions of dollars for years and be fine as a business. OpenAI, not so much.

Sure OpenAI can. They are the most well funded private company in history. Everyone wants to invest in them.

Meanwhile, Google and Microsoft are public companies and their stock can drop and their shareholders can force them to exit.

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#765

Post by jghn »

atombender wrote: post #616
jghn wrote: post #601

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> coming to Claude Code, but not there yet Wasn't this released a couple of weeks ago?

It was added in 2.0.74 according to the changelog, but it's not functional: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46357036 . I've certainly not been able to use it.

Good call. Looks like there's at least a user submitted workaround now [1]

[1] https://github.com/anthropics/claude-code/issues/14803#issue...

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#766

Post by mrwrong »

bdangubic wrote: post #614
mrwrong wrote: post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

and those stories were in the short run correct, since Amazon and Uber succeeded by massively undercutting existing businesses. reel customers in with charity, then turn the screws. what business is ChatGPT undercutting?

all of them :)

sounds like snake oil to me :)

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#767

Post by Bombthecat »

oblio wrote: post #761
Bombthecat wrote: post #751

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/12/11/1084926/human-br... They are getting better, faster etc etc. And I get down voted again for the truth people don't want to hear lol

You're not technically wrong, but that looks like tech that might be available decades from now. Even quantum computers might be decades away from practical applications, even though we've been trying to produce prototypes for decades now. Light based (optical) computers are in the same place or probably even further behind. They'll probably all help in the future, but the current LLM craze doesn't seem to be helped…

https://corticallabs.com/

You can order one already. They are not great, but I expect in a few years, things will look very very different.

Not decades

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#768

Post by monocasa »

satvikpendem wrote: post #719
monocasa wrote: post #718

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The causal users (to say nothing of the the massive uptick in bot traffic) are some of the more useless data from an AI training perspective.

Again, this is a techie take. Lots of people for example use ChatGPT for personal therapy and guess which subs their training data comes from, r/relationships etc. Those trying to use them for other means are comparatively less frequent.

When I say casual, I mean youtube style comments where people just post memes rather than engaging, thoughtful content for whatever niche they're in. Which is essentially noise for training data.

Your interpretation of casual as stuff like r/relationships is itself "techie talk".

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#769

Post by satvikpendem »

monocasa wrote: post #768
satvikpendem wrote: post #719

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, this is a techie take. Lots of people for example use ChatGPT for personal therapy and guess which subs their training data comes from, r/relationships etc. Those trying to use them for other means are comparatively less frequent.

When I say casual, I mean youtube style comments where people just post memes rather than engaging, thoughtful content for whatever niche they're in. Which is essentially noise for training data. Your interpretation of casual as stuff like r/relationships is itself "techie talk".

Sure, memes aren't useful but I suspect that's not what Google is paying Reddit millions of dollars for...

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#770

Post by aprilthird2021 »

thom wrote: post #248
aprilthird2021 wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm genuinely curious. Why do you do this instead of Google Searches which also have an AI Overview / answer at the top, that's basically exactly the same as putting your search query into a chat bot, but it ALSO has all the links from a regular Google search so you can quickly corroborate the info even using sources not from the original AI result (so you also see discordant sources from what the AI answer had)?

The regular google search AI doesn’t do thinky thinky mode. For most buying decisions these days I ask ChatGPT to go off and search and think for a while given certain constraints, while taking particular note of Reddit and YouTube comments, and come back with some recommendations. I’ve been delighted with the results.

You ... You outsource decisions on what you buy to ChatGPT??? I am so worried for you when they decide to turn the screws to monetize it...
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