I think two things can be true simultaneously: 1. LLMs are a new technology and it's hard to put the genie back in the bottle with that. It's difficult to imagine a future where they don't continue to exist in some form, with all the timesaving benefits and social issues that come with them. 2. Almost three years in, companies investing in LLMs have not yet discovered a business model that justifies the massive expen…
> 2. Almost three years in, companies investing in LLMs have not yet discovered a business model that justifies the massive expenditure of training and hosting them, the majority of consumer usage is at the free tier, the industry is seeing the first signs of pulling back investments, and model capabilities are plateauing at a level where most people agree that the output is trite and unpleasant to consume. You hit t…
LLM Inevitabilism
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Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#762Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm confused with your second point. LLM companies are not making any money from current models? Openai generates 10b USD ARR and has 100M MAUs. Yes they are running at a loss right now but that's because they are racing to improve models. If they stopped today to focus on optimization of their current models to minimize operating cost and monetizing their massive user base you think they don't have a successful busi…
They might generate 10b ARR, but they lose a lot more than that. Their paid users are a fraction of the free riders. https://www.wheresyoured.at/openai-is-a-systemic-risk-to-the...
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#763Article assumes LLMs stay where they currently are or progress only incrementally. Many Fortune 500 companies are seeing real productivity gains through Agentic Workflows to reduce paperwork and bureaucratic layers. Even a marginal 1% improvement can be millions of dollars for these companies. Then you have an entire industry of AI-native startups that can now challenge and rival industry behomeths (OpenAI itself is…
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#764Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#765I think what scares people who code for a living the most is the loss of their craft. Many of you have spent years or decades honing the craft of producing clear, fast, beautiful code. Now there is something that can spit out (often) beautiful code in seconds. An existential threat to your self worth and livelihood. A perfectly reasonable thing to react to. I do think, however, that this is an inevitable change. Indu…
My job security is pretty low on my list of concerns about LLMs. I wish this technology existed only for vibe coding. I worry about the impact of LLMs to the society at large. These models hit the mainstream only a couple years ago and they already have disastrous effects. Not only people send LLM generated emails to each other, that's actually a selling point for many products. I regularly hear about people using LL…
I can't even imagine how hard it must be to grow up in such a society.
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#766Earlier quoted context omitted.
They might generate 10b ARR, but they lose a lot more than that. Their paid users are a fraction of the free riders. https://www.wheresyoured.at/openai-is-a-systemic-risk-to-the...
This echoes a lot of the rhetoric around "but how will facebook/twitter/etc make money?" back in the mid 2000s. LLMs might shake out differently from the social web, but I don't think that speculating about the flexibility of demand curves is a particularly useful exercise in an industry where the marginal cost of inference capacity is measured in microcents per token. Plus, the question at hand is "will LLMs be rele…
The difference is that Facebook costs virtually nothing to run, at least on a per-user basis. (Sure, if you have a billion users, all of those individual rounding errors still add up somewhat.)
By contrast, if you're spending lots of money per user... well look at what happened to MoviePass!
The counterexample here might be Youtube; when it launched, streaming video was really expensive! It still is expensive too, but clearly Google has figured out the economics.
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#767People like communicating in natural language. LLMs are the first step in the movement away from the "early days" of computing where you needed to learn the logic based language and interface of computers to interact with them. That is where the inevitabilism comes from. No one* wants to learn how to use a computer, they want it to be another entity that they can just talk to. *I'm rounding off the <5% who deeply lov…
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#768Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ironically, this is exactly the technique for arguing that the blog mentions. Remember the revolutionary, seemingly inevitable tech that was poised to rewrite how humans thought about transportation? The incredible amounts of hype, the secretive meetings disclosing the device, etc.? That turned out to be the self-balancing scooter known as a Segway?
ChatGPT has something 300 million monthly users after less than three years and I don't think has Segway sold a million scooters, even though their new product lines are sick. I can totally go about my life pretending Segway doesn't exist, but I just can't do that with ChatGPT, hence why the author felt compelled to write the post in the first place. They're not writing about Segway, after all.
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#769Earlier quoted context omitted.
> “most people agree that the output is trite and unpleasant to consume” That is a such a wild claim. People like the output of LLMs so much that ChatGPT is the fastest growing app ever. It and other AI apps like Perplexity are now beginning to challenge Google’s search dominance. Sure, probably not a lot of people would go out and buy a novel or collection of poetry written by ChatGPT. But that doesn’t mean the outp…
Maybe he's referencing how people don't like when other humans post LLM responses in the comments. "Here's what chatGPT said about..." I don't like that, either. I love the LLM for answering my own questions, though.
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#770So is LLM inevitable? Pretty much if you want to remain competitive.