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Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

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Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#761

Time to just call these tariffs: sales tax. Extra money for the government on all goods imported are taxes. The rest of the complexity distracts from the basic cash flow and the inevitable results. More money spent and consumed by the government.

They’re worse than sales taxes, because the goods imported are subject to levies even if they’re unsold and eventually destroyed.

Right, but the goal is to solve a marketing issue. The Trump base is resistent to criticisms of dear leader and the mechanisms behind tariffs raising all prices can be misunderstood (and let's be honest, who really trusts economists). Call it a sales tax, they know what that is. The mechanism doesn't matter.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#762

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the opposite! A universal tariff is a tariff on all inputs that manufacturers need to be competitive. How will Ford or Tesla ever be competitive if all their inputs are 24% more expensive than Toyota's inputs? Autarky doesn't work. Juche doesn't work. Comparative advantage works, both theoretically and in practice if we study economic history.

Do you really believe in the comparative advantage argument though? Surely it’s only true if comparative advantage is fixed over time. And surely in order to leverage comparative advantage, an economy would need to know how good they would be at producing every possible good. There are good reasons to trade, but comparative advantage doesn’t feel like the correct theoretical underpinning to me.

To support your point, consider the long list of assumptions underlying "Comparative Advantage", such as at: https://efinancemanagement.com/international-financial-manag...

A key assumption being: "Factors of production are fully employed in both the countries. ... The theory assumes full employment. However, every economy has an existence of underemployment."

Another key assumption is "The labor cost determines the price of the two commodities. ... The theory only considers labor costs and neglects all non-labor costs involved in the production of the commodities."

One assumption not listed there is an implicit assumption as in much of economics of infinite demand for anything and no law of diminishing-to-negative returns when considering the environmental and psychological costs of consumption.

So, if you have unemployment in the producer country like China (meaning, there is no reason for them to limit their production) along with a significant capital investment in production infrastructure (like in the Shenzhen region for electronics), and you have limited demand in the consumer country like the USA (meaning, only so much can be sold there at any specific time), then the country which can produce stuff more cheaply will just flood the market of the other country for all goods in question -- even if the consumer country could in theory produce one of the goods at higher costs (or lower quality). Of course, there may eventually be macroeconomic issues like balance of trade issues and countries unable to pay for more goods (which the USA has avoided to date because the US dollar is the refactor global currency backed by the USA's global policing role for decades as a defacto empire). But even if labor in the consumer country like the USA is free, given realistically a lot of cost related to equipment and energy (and increasingly AI and robotics) and more nebulous things like supply chain integration and a can-do attitude, the consumer country may not be able to compete on price and quality of finished products from the more materially productive economy.

Tangential, but "Humans Need Not Apply" makes a good argument when they suggest that horses are essentially obsolete in modern industry (in the same way people may be soon). It's not that you sometimes use horses to any great degree in modern manufacturing (whereas before they pulled carts and turned machines) -- it is that for almost any industrial task horses are more trouble than they are worth now in terms of cost and reliability compared to electric motors or diesel engines and so on.

An economic theory like "Comparative Advantage" that entirely emphasizes labor costs is increasingly obsolete if human labor is less and less a major factor of production. The theory assumes a country will always have people doing something productive, but that is like saying we should bring horses back into factories when robots are generally more reliable. If people are not skillful with access to tools and capital and don't have a can-do attitude, then they will just suffer economically (unless protected somehow) No doubt there are special cases where horses are still useful in production or transport like how mules were used recently to get supplies into hurricane damaged North Carolina, but they are rare as long as the modern industrial system and its surrounding infrastructure functions well. Similarly, there may still be human roles in production, but they will continue to diminish. In 2010, I put together some options for dealing with this situation, available here: https://pdfernhout.net/beyond-a-jobless-recovery-knol.html

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#763

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Consumers could always make this decision for themselves and pick domestic over foreign. In a free market, consumers _do_ decide for themselves. It is simply so, that price is the primary factor for many consumers. Especially in a society where living paycheck to paycheck is normal - but really in any society.

Price doesn't have to be the primary factor though, that was my point. People can choose for whatever reasons they want, we just don't currently seem to care where manufacturing is being done.

Quality is actually a primary factor for me, which means for any important purchases (cars especially) I choose foreign-made products.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#764

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the opposite! A universal tariff is a tariff on all inputs that manufacturers need to be competitive. How will Ford or Tesla ever be competitive if all their inputs are 24% more expensive than Toyota's inputs? Autarky doesn't work. Juche doesn't work. Comparative advantage works, both theoretically and in practice if we study economic history.

Do you really believe in the comparative advantage argument though? Surely it’s only true if comparative advantage is fixed over time. And surely in order to leverage comparative advantage, an economy would need to know how good they would be at producing every possible good. There are good reasons to trade, but comparative advantage doesn’t feel like the correct theoretical underpinning to me.

>Do you really believe in the comparative advantage argument though? Surely it’s only true if comparative advantage is fixed over time.

It's mostly not that complicated. Ecuador is better at bananas, the US is better at software so they trade. And similar stuff.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#765
post #722

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This aestheticization of factory jobs is something I've noticed to be driving the New Right's worldview. It's not dissimilar to and no less dangerous than the aesthetic fixation on the agrarian economy of Mao and Pol Pot. Frankly, no, sweatshops are not important to the cultural fabric of a country. The US has problems with housing affordability, with medical costs, and with service sector costs emerging from Baumol'…

Tech bros who are frustrated with their job fantasizing about doing "real work". An entire generation has grown up without assembly lines so it is easy to mystify it. People in Vietnam don't enjoy making Nikes but it is better than what came before: subsistence farming. But the Vietnamese factory worker trying to send their kids to university too.

Perhaps this is the inevitable cycle of prosperity? We see this in so many facets now as generations progress - your comment reminds me of antivax social media people who haven't ever seen anyone more sick than a cold or tech bros thinking a trade job would be better since it might magically be "more rewarding" (I'm guilty of this!) with no regard for how much privilege is inherent in sitting at a desk all day and getting paid to think.

Like the stereotypical kid who grew up rich not understanding the value of hard work maybe the inevitable result of easy and safe living is a blind spot so big we're doomed to fall back down as a society and start over again and again.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#766

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Applied at time of passing through customs. More typical policy would give 90 days notice so businesses could plan ahead. This policy was implemented far too fast with far too high of numbers and now it’s also changing rapidly. It doesn’t make sense. > I'm not American but it seems madness to apply them at any other time I’m American and I fully agree it’s madness. This administration clearly doesn’t understand or ev…

Trump has been spouting the same shit about trade deficits and the US getting ripped off for several decades. I think he legitimately believes high tariffs are a good idea to "fix" trade deficits.

It’s not about trade deficits-it’s about becoming an independent manufacturer again. Whether or not anyone international buys what we make is secondary. Wealth is disproportionately allocated to those that benefit from globalization but the vast majority of Americans are hurting from it, even if a OLED TV costs nickels.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#767

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He should have announced the policy, and said something like "we will pause the tariffs". But instead, he said something vague, which can be interpreted as a hint, and which will open the road for investigations.

“Now is a good time to buy” isn’t vague.

The point is that this text is not the official policy. It is a hint to investors.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#768
post #22
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s how oligarchies work.

Eastern Europe and large part of Asia to US citizens: "First time?"

We are returning champs of the Oligarchy World Tour at this point.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#769

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The judicial branch is meant only to provide clarify of laws on the books. I'm not sure what they would do with an enforcement agency, and I'd be worried about what that would do with regards to the types of people attracted to those judicial positions. The legislative branch already has a lot of power. I'd be very concerned giving them the direct control, or even shared control, over enforcement. They should be cont…

> That leaves the executive, and personally I don't see a problem with enforcement living there. What if the executive just decides not to enforce the decisions of the legislative and judicial branches?

The legislative branch can pass a law requiring enforcement, likely within some specified parameters or timeline. If that passes and is constitutional, the courts could be tested and uphold the law.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#770

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely agree. It's ridiculous that low wage labor is considered a "comparative advantage". It's an advantage to capital owners perhaps, but certainly not to workers. And like you said, advantages are not static. In my opinion it's intrinsically valuable to have a diverse regional economy. Culture and economy are fundamentally inseparable, imagine a society where everyone is doing the same thing because of "compar…

This aestheticization of factory jobs is something I've noticed to be driving the New Right's worldview. It's not dissimilar to and no less dangerous than the aesthetic fixation on the agrarian economy of Mao and Pol Pot. Frankly, no, sweatshops are not important to the cultural fabric of a country. The US has problems with housing affordability, with medical costs, and with service sector costs emerging from Baumol'…

Manufacturing doesn’t have to equate to sweat shops. It’s hard to take your argument seriously when your judgement is undermined by such fallacy.

We have problems with housing affordability because asset values inflate inverse to the devaluation of the dollar. The dollar is deflating because a service economy is not as sustainable as a manufacturing economy. This is particularly pronounced when we all see the labor value of intelligent workers decreasing at a precipitous rate due to AI.

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