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Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#761
post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I had $1000 in cash, and inflation hits 10%, the purchasing power is equivalent to (1000 / 1.1 = ~$909) in 2026. If I had the same $1000 in stock, and it lost 11% of its value in 2 days, I might worry about it being worth close to $0 by the end of the month.

> Brazilian hyperinflation lasted from 1985 (the year when the military dictatorship ended) to 1994, with prices rising by 184,901,570,954.39% (or 1.849×1011 percent; equivalent to a tenfold increase on average a year) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation#Notable_hyperin...

This should read "1.849×10¹¹ percent".

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#762
post #756

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your alternative solution? Something like weighting the tariffs based on US production? What's the calculation using this method?

I'd like to eventually see the "import certificate" system that Buffett proposed in the 2003 article I linked above. It's a more free-market solution which does not pipe revenue through US government where a large chunk (or all) of it will disappear without ever reaching the exporters.

Me too, would be good for sure. For the record, I don't have anything against leveling deficits if that's the goal.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#763
post #757

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read Buffett's proposed solution. It's clever - it must be about as close as you can get to a market based solution. But as you say, it won't be implemented, if for no other reason that Trump wouldn't trust a solution he doesn't control and doesn't directly benefit from. His introduction to his solution reads more like a prophecy. Other countries, including have also taken the trade deficit path. Mine is nowhere fa…

You think he, or the GOP would "benefit" from the stock market collapse? That contradicts all available evidence, at least for the short to medium term. I think the midterms are going to be an unprecedented bloodbath. Boomers won't allow their 401k's to decline even temporarily.

> You think he, or the GOP would "benefit" from the stock market collapse?

Uhmmm, no. Did I imply that? I can't see how Trump benefits from this, let alone anyone else in the USA. In fact I had to think long and hard to come up with anyone on the planet who benefits. Maybe Putin, but now he's up against a re-arming and united Europe.

I was just admiring Buffett's solution. It turns the debt into a marketable good, and so lets the market decide who will be best at getting reducing it. It probably would not work for some reason I can't think of, but it's very appealing.

But now I think about it, Buffett may benefit. He said in the article he's moved a lot of his portfolio overseas, according to the AI's around 40% of it. Lets assume the worst happens and the US dollar and economy falls off a cliff in the next 4 years. Trump and the rump of barnacles in the GOP that support him will be wiped off the political map, because as Biden discovered yet again, regardless of how well you govern "it's about the economy stupid", even if the economy was tanked by the other sides COVID bazooka 4 years prior. Buffett will move his portfolio back onshore after it all bottoms out and the price is cheap. The pain will be remembered so there won't be a repeat for at least a few decades. The USA will bounce back, and Buffett doubles his money. It's the typical Buffett play.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#764

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I hate "artificially low" why artificial? What makes something artificial and what makes it real? When people have cheap access to money, they spend it. When they spend it in such a manner that it outpaces the ability of the supply side to, well, supply , the result is inflation. And that's what we saw in '21 and '22. You had someone handing out PPP loans like candy and forgiving them outright, you had stimmy check…

> And that's what we saw in '21 and '22. You had someone handing out PPP loans like candy and forgiving them outright, you had stimmy checks (that weren't backed by anything real, but that's another story), you had people sitting around looking for stuff to pass lockdown with, etc. Yes, this is my whole point. The American Rescue Act and subsequent policies that were very much propping up salient jobs (certainly not…

> Yes, this is my whole point. The American Rescue Act and subsequent policies that were very much propping up salient jobs (certainly not wfh tech jobs that are, definitionally, resistant to lockdowns) fueled inflation that led to the end of zero interest rate period which led to large layoffs in tech.

Those are of little consequence compared to FRS interest rate policy. Also, those people need a place to work. Sorry.

> Flint falsifies your point, it is a democratic bastion. If you'd expect that to radicalize people, it should be deep deep read.

Democratic or Republican doesn't matter. When you have no more money because of major regional economic changes, you can't do the basic functions of government. There's also demographic differences.

> Out of bounds is a social norm over time. Donald Trump, their far and away champion, gives such egregious conduct I can't read this with a straight face.

That's what rage does.

> But we can go further back. Was 'just say no' not egregious enough for you? AIDS shaming? The vicious anger against gay people? I can take any snapshot of the past - conservatives will always be the cry bully at any of the years in time you want to pick.

You're confusing "conservative" with people in the part of the country that we're talking about.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#765

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gotta have a hook. Look at how he did in the Upper Midwest in '24 vs. '20. That was through appealing to the manufacturing base. There are elements of that bloc that have wanted tariffs for decades. If you lay off people to send the stock price up, you are the enemy. If you do it to "protect American manufacturing", you're a hero. Well, to a very niche part of the voting public, but it's enough.

sure but you can basically say whatever you want. Remember the trump tax plan is just 'cut taxes on the rich and provide industrial subsidies' and that works just fine. No need to chop share prices while you're at it with a silly tariff.

That's not nearly enough to win his base. That's been the plan for the GOP since... forever. This is "going after the establishment" with a tariff.

Now, does it benefit anyone? Hell no. But the tariffs are the hook that make him different from decades of GOP free trade globalization policy.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#766
post #759

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To improve rust belt manufacturing, you would target competitors of industries in that area, not the whole global economy. We imposed a 32% tariff on Taiwan. Simultaneously, we are making it more expensive to manufacture here in the states. We have 1/4 China's pop - why would we try to compete on raw output by ourselves, instead of strengthening ties w/ the world? For many countries, there is nothing to negotiate sin…

I'll continue playing devils advocate here. > To improve rust belt manufacturing, you would target competitors of industries in that area, not the whole global economy. If you accept as a premise that the goal is to prevent offshoring our manufacturing base THEN you may also want to develop new industry and not just protect industries in that area. Moreover the goal is presumably not restricted to just that area it i…

You could broaden beyond the rust belt: America is a rich country that manufactures fancy things. A smart trade policy would focus on these things; it would not make policies to be competitive with poor nations. We tariffed places that export commodities or low-value-add products, places that we import ingredients from to make the fancy things.

Taiwan and China are related specifically on semiconductor trade; its the hottest point in our "battle" w/ China. TSMC is really the only company in the world that can make the best chips. Losing their trust is itself a security risk.

On the last point, I agree it would increase labor competitiveness, but I don't think its smart to compete with the whole world. If we wanted to do this, we should set policies to make skilled Americans competitive in the manufacturing industries that already exist here.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#767
post #516
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Leopards eating a lot of American faces.

This type of comment is boring and doesn’t really advance the discussion. I used to enjoy HN but it seems to have developed into these sorts of comments quite quickly.

Redditification

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#768

Earlier quoted context omitted.

cycomanic says> "Europeans seem to be much more susceptible to an "if you don't want it to be done to you don't do it to others" argument" While they may "talk the talk", Europe doesn't "Walk the walk"! Europe has strong tariffs on imports. The USA is now simply equalizing the situation. Here's an example: Automobile Tariffs by Country 2025: put your cursor on a country to see its automobile tariff. European tariffs…

That's a bad example. The US already had higher tariffs on vehicles if you include the chicken tax.

Thanks for this bit of history that I was unaware of. Note that the chicken tax applies to light trucks however.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#769

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm fairly convinced it's easier feel like there is some plan, even if a bad or sinister one, than things being in a state of genuine chaos. You occasionally see the people jumping between different ideas as to what the underlying plan is, once events no longer support their initial idea.

The plan is crystal clear: 1. When equities crash, market liquidity floods the bond market causing yields to drop 2. Refinance debt at these lower rates massively reducing interest burden 3. Cut government spending to cause rates to drop further 4. Reduced rates with a balanced budget results in non-inflationary borrowing and an economic upswing Along the way, eliminate taxes for those earning below $150k. If all of…

> When equities crash, market liquidity floods the bond market causing yields to drop

I don't know much about markets so genuinely curious as to why the opposite happened in practice (yields went up)?

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#770
post #680

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>In the US, a person used to be able to graduate high school and get a job that could support owning a house with a yard, a non-working spouse, a car, and multiple children A lot of the change there is not down to China but limiting the ability to build a cheap house through nimbyism and regulation and then competition from other dual income / high earners bidding everything up. You could fix it by allocating everyon…

What? No; the problem is vastly more attributable to the tremendous transfer of wealth from the working classes to the wealthy that has occurred over the past 50 years. Look at any graph of earnings by quintile over time, or of income or wealth inequality today, and you'll see that the fact that builders can't cut corners and sell us crappy houses and apartments that will fall down around our ears is far from the pri…

Wealth is not zero sum though. LeBron James being great at basketball doesn't make you any worse at basketball. Jeff Bezos starting a company in his garage selling books online that became one of the biggest in the world worth many billions doesn't make me any poorer. Financial transactions are win-win. That is why there is a mutual thank you when making a purchase. The cafe owner would rather have my 2$ instead of coffee in their pot. I would rather have coffee in my cup instead of 2$. If neither of us thought we would not be better off the transaction would not happen
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