Risks are only uninsurable if the government puts a ceiling on the premiums.
Is the world becoming uninsurable?
761–770 of 1001 posts
Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?
#762Earlier quoted context omitted.
Public insurance. For housing, healthcare, maybe even cars (since the coprorate political complex insists that we HAVE to drive everywhere). At some point, we have to accept that the middlemen are siphoning value, not providing any. Vanguard it and let elected admins set the codes.
Isn't this thing going to be subsidized by taxpayers in the end anyway? California already a dumb communal insurance thing, the "California FAIR Plan" for people who can't get insurance due to high risk. They force insurance companies who operate in the state to fund it. So basically everyone has to subsidize the high-risk people... but then the insurance companies leave. https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/cal…
As someone who's home insurer pulled out of California and so I had to scramble to find another carrier, I looked at the FAIR plan and it is completely untenable for most people. My insurance was already high, ~$2000/year for coverage that would rebuild our house, and under FAIR it would have gone up to $12000/year.
I mostly agree with the article that insurance is grounded in statistical measures of risk and there's no point railing against it. Norms are going to have to adapt to increased risk and how we build homes and infrastructure needs to shift away from short-term, low-cost thinking to longer-term solutions with a higher-upfront cost and lower TCO given the new constraints. Things like burying power lines, aggressively managing fire danger, and homes that are built to be more sound to natural disasters have to become the status quo.
Most of these things are already possible today. In my neighborhood, PG&E did an assessment and it would cost every homeowner on the street ~$25,000 to have the power lines buried. I would have opened my wallet immediately to reduce the fire risk, but it got caught up in politics and policy. When we had some renovation on our house, my wife and I insisted on some of the work being done in ways that would make the house safer and easier to maintain over the long work. The contractor balked at first saying it would cost us an extra couple of thousand dollars. I had to point out that an extra $3000 to make sure things lasted an extra 5 - 10 years and was easier to maintain and upgrade meant nothing. But people have to insist on doing better because right now the norm is to cut corners on everything to save in many cases a negligible amount of money over the life of the work or against the cost if there is a disaster.
Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?
#763Probably more that we spent decades since mass adoption of AC moving 10s of millions of people into previously lightly inhabited areas, then repeatedly bailed them out with government money to rebuild when disaster struck.
Add to that the general rich mans disease of building anything in America being slow & expensive, so each rebuild is more expensive than the last, well beyond just inflation.
Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?
#764Earlier quoted context omitted.
That doesn't align with the reality of these areas. To get insurance in these areas you have to demonstrate that you have created a defensible space around your house. This is enforced by local fire department inspections. I know this because I live near a fire prone area. Despite these things the area still burned. The problem isn't "lawns" or "wooden houses". In the case of the LA fires you would have had the burne…
From the recent events in California I have seen many photos of burnt houses with unburnt trees around. I think those houses were especially flammable more than some vegetation around it seems. After the fire nothing remained but the chimneys. I have never seen any house burn like that in Europe. I live along the Mediterranean sea in France, many wood fires every summer, with wind above 100km/h; never seen so many ho…
I have looked on some videos of how those good looking US houses have plastic drainage, plastic material roof cladding and plastic panels inside and outside. And the first thing that I was thinking - those burn in an event of house fire. But I see more ond more building materials that were used in US now offered and being standard in building here in Europe, so most probably some of the newer houses in an event of fire will burn down in similar fashion. I'm just wondering if the commenter that mentioned "black swan event"(a very popular theme in Russia and unrelated to wildfires) actually understands that USA has plastic houses everywhere and nothing will change - new mansions will be rebuilt in burned areas with the same materials, but because they are going to offer them as fireproof branded, they will cost more. That's all - these areas won't be abandoned, because location, location and location is the only thing that matters in property business and in your property value.
Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?
#765Earlier quoted context omitted.
That doesn't align with the reality of these areas. To get insurance in these areas you have to demonstrate that you have created a defensible space around your house. This is enforced by local fire department inspections. I know this because I live near a fire prone area. Despite these things the area still burned. The problem isn't "lawns" or "wooden houses". In the case of the LA fires you would have had the burne…
From the recent events in California I have seen many photos of burnt houses with unburnt trees around. I think those houses were especially flammable more than some vegetation around it seems. After the fire nothing remained but the chimneys. I have never seen any house burn like that in Europe. I live along the Mediterranean sea in France, many wood fires every summer, with wind above 100km/h; never seen so many ho…
Yeah, but it's California, so I'm not sure concrete is great for the earthquakes.
Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?
#766USA != World.
Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?
#767The article lumps in the L.A. fires but the exit of insurers from that market was due to price controls, voted in by California residents.
Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?
#768Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wildfires are not the problem. They happen all the time without causing billion-dollar insurance claims. Insurance is always assets x risk. The issue is expensive flamable housing (assets) in a wildfire area (risk). We ask for trouble when we create million-dollar wooden houses surrounded by manicured gardens in desert enviroments. And build on a slope facing pervailing winds. The answer is concrete/brick houses with…
That doesn't align with the reality of these areas. To get insurance in these areas you have to demonstrate that you have created a defensible space around your house. This is enforced by local fire department inspections. I know this because I live near a fire prone area. Despite these things the area still burned. The problem isn't "lawns" or "wooden houses". In the case of the LA fires you would have had the burne…
> Despite these things the area still burned.
I suspect the rules for making a defensible house were wrong. For example, I read an article recently that posited that most of the fire was spread by burning embers on the wind, and not by intense heat from nearby flames.
The idea is to look at where embers accumulate and eliminate or fireproof those areas. For example, a low masonry wall a few feet from the house can stop a lot of heavier burning embers from piling up against the house. If you've got a swimming pool, add a pump to it that feeds sprinklers in the yard and on the rooftop.
There are a lot of homes that did not burn - look at them and figure out why they didn't burn.
For a related example, every airplane crash is looked at, and we always discover overlooked vulnerabilities. The tsunami that devastated Japan a few years ago also provided a lot of information about what worked and didn't work.
We're a long way from needing to give up. There's a lot of low hanging fruit.
Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?
#769Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s possible that solve the hurricane problems with proper building regulations and lower the risk of huge wildfires with controlled burning. But the US as always prefers to pretend that there’s nothing to be done when other parts of the world has figured it out. We have cyclones here similar to the hurricanes in the US and usually it just blows over some trees maybe causes a power outage. The absolute worst I have…
It's so interesting to see the people in awe of that "fire hurricane" video in L.A.... We had a way more intense drought than they in my city last year (theirs are not that intense). We also had 50 km/h winds. We also had higher temperatures... And all of those to levels that we never saw before. Also, we have more trees in our cities. We had new "fire hurricane" videos every week (normally, every other year somebody…
It's not a competition. Both can be sights that people view in awe. Are you "Four Yorkshiremen-ing" wildfires?
Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?
#770Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wildfires are not the problem. They happen all the time without causing billion-dollar insurance claims. Insurance is always assets x risk. The issue is expensive flamable housing (assets) in a wildfire area (risk). We ask for trouble when we create million-dollar wooden houses surrounded by manicured gardens in desert enviroments. And build on a slope facing pervailing winds. The answer is concrete/brick houses with…
A forward looking (part of a) solution for Malibu would be the county acquiring and maintaining beach paths every few houses. Prescribed 10' wide fire breaks. This solves the fire problem AND the limited access to a public resource that is common in Malibu. Ideally a permeable surface without any growth, cleared at least 2x a year.
The break would need a low masonry wall to stop embers from being pushed along the ground.