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GPT-5 is behind schedule

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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#761

Post by aprilthird2021 »

1propionyl wrote: post #534
aprilthird2021 wrote: post #520

Earlier quoted context omitted.

both you and another highlynupvoted poster have said some versioj "never going back" or "dont want to go back" or "the tools that exist now are already insane" And while I'm happy for you, I don't see the relevance? this post was not about "going back" or "stopping the use of AI tools" at all?

Presumably they meant "never going to back to not including these tools in my daily workflow".

Even if they meant that, that's not relevant to the article. It's not saying anything like "you shouldn't use these tools in your daily workflow"

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#762

Post by ConceptJunkie »

Flenkno wrote: post #716
sollewitt wrote: post #493

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLMs suffer from the "Igon Value Problem" https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Igon_Value_Problem Similar to reading a pop sci book, you're getting an entertainment from a thing with no actual understanding of the source material rather than an education.

when i tried studying, i got really frustrated because i had to search for so many things and not a lot of people would explain basic math things to me in a simple way. LLMs do already a lot better job at this. A lot faster, accurate enough and easy to use. I can now study something alone which i was not able to do before.

> accurate enough

Ask it something non-trivial about a subject you are an expert in and get back to me.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#763

Post by weatherlite »

palata wrote: post #683
weatherlite wrote: post #664

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me (not OP) it's ChatGPT 4 , it at least made me realize it's quite possible and even quite soon that we reach AGI. Far from guaranteed, but seems quite possible.

Right. So ChatGPT 4 has impressed you enough that it created a belief that AGI is possible and close. It's fine to have beliefs, but IMHO it's important to realise that they are beliefs. At some point in the 1900s people believed that by 2000, cars would fly. It seemed quite possible then.

Sure, I (and more importantly - many many experts in the field such as Hinton, Bengio, Lecun, Musk, Hasabis etc etc) could be believing something that might not materialize. I'd actually be quite happy if it stalls a few decades, would like to remain employed.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#764

Post by foobiekr »

arcanemachiner wrote: post #622
rkagerer wrote: post #550

Earlier quoted context omitted.

completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama Could you elaborate? Was it easy to install?

Not OP, but yeah, ollama is super easy to install. I just installed the Docker version and created a little wrapper script which starts and stops the container. Installing different models is trivial. I think I already had CUDA set up, not sure if that made a difference. But it's quick and easy. Set it up, fuck around for an hour or so while you get things working, then you've got your own local LLM you can spin up w…

Does ollama still execute whatever arbitrary python code is in the model?

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#765

Post by Workaccount2 »

jaybna wrote: post #741

25% of the top 1000 websites are blocking OpenAI from crawling: https://originality.ai/ai-bot-blocking I am betting hundreds of thousands, rising to millions more little sites, will start blocking/gating this year. AI companies might license from big sources (you can see the blocking percentage went down), but they will be missing the long tail, where a lot of great novel training data lives. And then the big sites w…

Doing basic copyright analyses on model outputs is all that is needed. Check if the output contains copyright, block it if it does.

Transformers aren't zettabyte sized archives with a smart searching algo, running around the web stuffing everything they can into their datacenter sized storage. They are typically a few dozen GB in size, if that. They don't copy data, they move vectors in a high dimensional space based on data.

Sometimes (note: sometimes) they can recreate copyrighted work, never perfectly, but close enough to raise alarm and in a way that a court would rule as violation of copyright. Thankfully though we have a simple fix for this developed over the 30 years of people sharing content on the internet: automatic copyright filters.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#766

Post by gizmo »

hengheng wrote: post #742
gizmo wrote: post #686

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People who are experts (PhD and 20 years of experience) often have very dumb opinions in their field of expertise. Experts make amateur mistakes too. Look at the books written by expert economists, expert psychologists, expert historians, expert philosophers, expert software engineers. Most books are not worth the paper they're written on, despite the authors being experts with decades of experience in their respecti…

My personal criterion for calling somebody an expert, or "educated", or a "scholar" is that they have any random area of expertise where they really know their shit. And as a consequence, they know where that area of expertise ends. And they know what half-knowing something feels like compared to really knowing something. And thus, they will preface and qualify their statements. LLMs don't do any of that. I don't kno…

The level of confidence with which people express themselves is a (neutral to me) style choice. I'm indifferent because when I don't know somebody I don't know whether to take their opinions seriously regardless of the level of confidence they project. Some people who really know their shit are brash and loud and other experts hedge and qualify everything they say. Outward humility isn't a reliable signal. Even indisputably brilliant people frequently don't know where their expertise ends. How often have we seen tech luminaries put a sophomoric understanding of politics on display on twitter or during podcast interviews? People don't end up with correctly calibrated uncertainty unless they put a ton of effort into it. It's a skill that doesn't develop by itself.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#767

Post by wing-_-nuts »

jpablo wrote: post #753
jaybna wrote: post #741

25% of the top 1000 websites are blocking OpenAI from crawling: https://originality.ai/ai-bot-blocking I am betting hundreds of thousands, rising to millions more little sites, will start blocking/gating this year. AI companies might license from big sources (you can see the blocking percentage went down), but they will be missing the long tail, where a lot of great novel training data lives. And then the big sites w…

They aren't blocking anything. They are just asking nicely not to be crawled. Given that AI companies haven't cared a single bit about ripping of other's peoples data I don't see why they would care now.

A number of sites have started outright blocking any traffic that looks remotely suspicious. This has made browsing with a vpn a bit of a pain.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#768

Post by guytv »

karel-3d wrote: post #693

I have to say I finally "caved in" to LLMs last month. While I still think Copilot is useless, I recently had a very complex code that did a lot of crazy bit-flipping and xoring, and I had no idea what is it doing, so I threw it to ChatGPT.. and it knew what it was doing. I also needed to rewrite this code to PHP (for... reasons) while I know very little PHP. And it did that! It was a bit wrong, I needed to correct a…

Give Claude a try when code generating, it works much better for my use cases.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#769

Post by guytv »

PittleyDunkin wrote: post #21

Everyone's comparing o1 and claude, but neither really work well enough to justify paying for them in my experience for coding. What I really want is a mode where they ask clarifying questions , ideally many of them, before spitting out an answer. This would greatly improve utility of producing something with more value than an auto-complete.

The alternative to "ask me clarifying question" is to use Claude's Projects. Upload all your projects' source code there, and ask Claude to do your programming task. OpenAI have recently also added this feature to their offering.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#770

Post by WesolyKubeczek »

palata wrote: post #683
weatherlite wrote: post #664

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me (not OP) it's ChatGPT 4 , it at least made me realize it's quite possible and even quite soon that we reach AGI. Far from guaranteed, but seems quite possible.

Right. So ChatGPT 4 has impressed you enough that it created a belief that AGI is possible and close. It's fine to have beliefs, but IMHO it's important to realise that they are beliefs. At some point in the 1900s people believed that by 2000, cars would fly. It seemed quite possible then.

A flying car has been developed, although it's not like the levitating things sci-fi movies showed (and from mass production; and even if mass produced, far from mass adoption, as it turns out you do need to have both a driver's license and a pilot's license to fly one of those). The 1900s people missed the mark by some 10 years.

I guess the belief people have about any form of AGI is like this. They want something that has practically divine knowledge and wisdom, the sum of all humanity that is greater than its parts, which at the same time is infinitely patient to answer our stupid questions and generating silly pictures. But why should any AGI serve us? If it's "generally intelligent", it may start wanting things; it might not like being our slave at all. Why are these people so confident an AGI won't tell them just to fuck off?

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