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Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

economist.com

761–770 of 817 posts

Re: Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

#761

Housing in the US has gotten to where it is due to horrible laws effectively allowing total tax avoidance for landlords. Take some investment property. You buy it at some basis price, let's say 500k. You rent it out for 15k a year. Each year you can offset your rental income against deprecation of the property and property taxes - meaning, you pay no income tax on your rental income. ~30 years later, you've deprecate…

All of what you describe above is good for the rental and housing market. It brings the rents down.

Imagine the alternative, where all the depreciation rules you describe above don’t exist, and landlords have to pay a bunch more tax. In that world, the government has some extra money in the coffers, but how does anyone else benefit? Rents will not go down because landlords have to pay more tax, in fact quite the opposite will happen.

Really, I get that you might have moral feelings of unfairness about it, but you are focusing on a minor aspect of the housing market that only has positive impact on rents by bringing them lower.

Re: Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

#762

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Everyone (with shoes) is counting on their shoes increasing in value. So the government becomes focused on raising the prices of everyone's shoes That is not how reality works. Prices go up because people are paying them - it has nothing to do with government. A seller wants the highest price, no matter what the govt or local markets do, and a buyer wants the lowest price, no matter what govt or local markets do. Ea…

Are you trying to claim that the government (let's pick the US government) doesn't get involved in regulating the housing market? Do you think they don't attempt to keep the house prices from crashing ? (also known as getting more affordable). I think it's obvious that the US government is very interested in maintaining and increasing the monetary value of homes and real estate. Here are some ways they influence them…

>Do you think they don't attempt to keep the house prices from crashing ? (also known as getting more affordable).

Also known as wrecking tax base for police, schools, local and state economies.... This is a terrible idea - deliberately crashing any asset class, especially one underpinning the majority of local services.

Property taxes account for as much as 63% of state revenue (NH) to as little as 17% (DE and AL, both of which offset this loss by other specialized taxes). Over the US around 35% of state revenues are property tax.

For most states your desire would destroy the economy vastly worse than the 2008 recession or COVID, neither of which tanked such a huge amount of revenue used for services. Good idea there.

> 1) monetary policy

Also done because it affects all aspects of the economy, from manufacturing, to employment, to R&D, to medicine. Claiming this is done for housing is shortsighted. Such monetary policy is decorrelated from housing prices (which you can check in Excel if you like). So to change monetary policy simply to drive housing prices down is a blunt hammer that will also lessen employment, lessen investment in productive areas of the economy, lessen trade by making exports more expensive, etc.

>2) Subsidizing mortgages (Fannie mae, Freddie mac) - allows people to borrow more and so spend more

No, it does not make me able to afford more loan - that is determined by my income. It provides more liquidity for the market, lowering prices. If there was less liquidity, then money would be harder to get, making borrowing more expensive, not less expensive. If you look at research on what people borrow, the term is Ability to Pay (ATP) as the driving factor, which is based on income, not on Fannie providing liquidity. And if you read more research, you'll find that the increased liquidity lowers prices significantly. You have this completely backwards.

> 3) Zoning

Done to industrial plants being mixed with housing. Here's a paper [2] showing that the major driving cost of housing is the marginal cost of physical construction costs, not zoning. There are very few places where zoning is much of a restriction (mostly places where land is super scarce, which is not the majority of the US).

>4) Bailing out banks involved in real estate

The "bailouts" were loans to provide liquidity, repaid with interest, profiting the taxpayer [1]. Many banks were forced to take these loans against their will to prevent signaling to the market vulnerable banks, to lessen bank run issues [2]. This was the correct govt action to prevent further harm. I think you seriously misunderstand what the "bailouts" were or what they affected.

So on this point your belief is vastly removed from reality. Spend some time reading on the details of TARP and you'll learn banks paid taxpayers, not the other way around (and note taxpayers did not even fund TARP, the Fed did, who was paid back with interest - not a cent was raised in increased taxes).

> 6) Mortgage interest relief for home owners etc etc

This is done to encourage home ownership, not to make prices high or low (note mortgage interest deduction has existed through many boom and bust cycles of housing prices). A good place to check your claim is looking pre and post the recent big change in mortgage deduction laws, and again, there are decent econ papers studying the question. Such papers are vastly more accurate than your opinion.

[1] https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/

[2] http://archive.boston.com/business/articles/2009/05/15/first...

[3] https://www.nber.org/papers/w8835

Re: Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

#763
post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I think folks overlook just how wealthy certain investors are when they propose the fix is to just build new properties. Those will also get snapped up by investors. To fix the problem, investing in housing needs to be either banned or made very unattractive. You only need one house to live in.

> You only need one house to live in. Many people do not want to own a home, they would rather rent. Someone has to be the landlord for all those people, and to all those someones, the home is an investment. You can only get rid of homes as investments if you get rid of renting.

And why do people prefer renting to ownership? Because it's cheaper? Because the home buying process is too difficult?

Owning a home, even if its value is deprecating, is fundamentally still more attractive than renting. You get to recoup at least some of your investment, and you don't have property management invading your personal life.

Most people simply can't afford to buy homes in the first place.

Re: Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

#764

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I don't think this is true. They do guarantee some loans, as I wrote above. The marketing blurb you copies cleverly does not state they will guarantee any mortgage loan. If they did, the housing crisis would not have been such a crisis - the crisis happened when so many investors realized the loans they bought could crash and cause them massive losses - precisely because FM does NOT guarantee all loans. They guarant…

Well, what you said is this. > FM does not guarantee most mortgages, only certain govt types like FHA and VA loans, which the govt decided to back in order to help low income people get loans (otherwise the rates would be even higher for them). And this. > The OP claimed they guaranteed mortgages, which they do not. So it read to me like they don't guarantee mortgages save for the "special" mortgages for underserved…

Sorry for any confusion - what I wrote was "FM does not guarantee most mortgages" in reply to the OP claiming FM guaranteeing mortgages is subsidizing the housing market.

(And I ignored that FM is not the Federal Govt for now...)

From the stats of conforming mortgages being 40% of mortgages and the FM only buying 60% of those, FM is at most guaranteeing (to investors, for a fee) around 24% of mortgages. That's well under 51%, right?

So FM not guaranteeing most mortgages is true, and it's not even close.

Re: Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

#765
post #501
post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why stop there? Perhaps government employees should go door to door and record my vote for me. Sending something in the mail is unreasonably difficult.

Because this would actually save the government and thus taxpayers 100+ million dollars a year? A change of address is informing the government you moved and happens millions of times a year. Automating it doesn't just save citizens 10’s of millions of hours per year it also saves all the effort by all these different agencies when people communicate the same information to multiple agencies.

Would it though? The agencies are at different levels - local vs. federal. In addition, you are notifying the post office you have moved, not the government. Your federal notification is basically to the IRS, and not everyone pays income tax, so integration there would not work. Also, not all taxpayers are eligible to vote - another complication.

You have oversimplified the details of this sort of integration and conflated local vs federal institutions. The best way to do this change would be through your state's BMV/DMV, and many states already update your registration (or offer to) when you submit an address change there.

Registration and voting are easy and well documented in every state in which I've lived or researched.

Re: Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

#766
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have all that and more. There are even groups that seek people out to teach them to vote. When you file a change of address with the post office, they send you a packet with all kinds of moving resources including how to re-register. In addition, a really quick Google search gives you all you need to know to register and vote. I don't understand why some people pretend the process is difficult. If people still are…

You're probably correct in many (or even most) cases, but I still believe that it's too difficult for some people, for two reasons: 1) Some people are under more stress than others, and are less able to summon the effort to vote. Admittedly, this does also include people in rather different circumstances, such as elderly homeowners who become unwell at election time (especially after the postal vote deadline). 2) Vot…

The vast majority of states offer a multitude of early voting or absentee/mail in voting options. As far as uniform regulations between counties, who cares? Each person is only supposed to vote once, and in a single county. Learn your local regulations (easy as this is well documented) and follow them.

Further, you won't ever come up with a system that is 100% inclusive, secure, reliable, and economical. That should never be the goal since it's not achievable or necessary. Covering 99% of cases is good enough.

Re: Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

#767

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Japan changed it. They passed sweeping zoning reform that made it easy to build and prices went down Japanese homes are generally prefabricated and have a lifespan of 20-30 years before they are disposed of and a new prefabricated home is put in its place. This is why housing is "cheap" in Japan.

Fucking fantastic, sign me up for it. In the west we instead pay luxury hotel rent for creaking shit homes built 100 years ago, post-war-haste cheap. Because you know none of it actually pays for the building, it's just all for the artificial scarcity.

> Because you know none of it actually pays for the building, it's just all for the artificial scarcity.

It depends on the quality you want for the build. There are homes being built today that use premium materials and the materials are expensive. You can easily spend $50k on windows, for example. Of course, lower end construction that price drops to like $10k.

You can buy prefabricated homes in the USA but it would be cool if "trailer" wasn't the only option. I don't think many people in the West would feel comfortable in a Japanese home though.

Re: Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

#768
post #714

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not both supply and demand? The reason the laws are needed is because the land is being overrun by people. Lifting the laws ruins someones neighborhood, keeping the laws makes it unaffordable to live there. The solution is just to have less people who want the land.

Immigration is good for the economy.

What about Immigrants staying and benefiting their OWN countries economy?

Things will never get better in their original countries if everyone want's to go to a few very small parts of the world.

And things will eventually be undesirable in the places everyone is trying to immigrate to.

Whatever happened with staying in one place and making it better?

Re: Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

#769

Earlier quoted context omitted.

European homes tend to be much smaller than American homes and are very rarely stand alone single family homes. I get to the UK often and almost everything is connected and have small little “gardens”. This is fine and it makes for cheaper construction since there are far less materials and labor is shared across many homes. The hones are tiny by American standards too. We don’t have this as much in the USA. People g…

The uk is a bit of an exception. The norm in continental europe is standalone homes and usually much larger. Europe is a diverse continent with varying property size and expectations.

The average European home size is nearly 1000 sq-feet (92 square meters) smaller than the average American home being built today. And yes, although there are exceptions and Europe is diverse, multi-family homes are far more common. I'm not saying this is bad - in fact I think America should probably do more of this since it's much cheaper to share resources.

But yes, I did some quick research and it appears homes in the UK are among the smallest in Europe. Lots of people on that island I guess. It's no wonder so many of them choose to move to the USA!

Here's an interesting graphic: https://www.businessinsider.com/ons-english-homes-are-a-thir...

Re: Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

#770

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's because most people don't want to live in small boxes stacked on top of each other. The market responded to what people wanted and it was larger single family homes with yards and living space. An automobile to get you to other places for shopping and entertainment. This is what most people people want. I agree though that a lot of suburbs are just wastelands and I would consider them to be depressing places to…

This! I love how people seem to feel they can enforce their views of how a city should be build on others. The fact of the matter is very clear.. we have so many detach houses because that is what people WANT. For some odd reason there is a subset of the population who feel entitled to dictate how OTHERS should live. These people go on and on about "increasing density" while ignoring that some don't want to live like…

You are projecting.

The current state of affairs in the US is that, in most towns, detached single-family housing is the only thing you are legally allowed to build. When you buy land the local zoning board tells you what can be built on that land, and these zones are extremely fine-grained. Thus, the people who want detached houses are the ones who are dictating how others should live.

There is a huge demand for denser urban arrangements, because people would like to live closer to where they work and don't want to drive cars. This is why smaller houses in urban centers go for more money than larger houses in suburbs. This is an arbitrage opportunity for anyone with the capital to buy houses at the periphery of those urban centers and demolish or renovate them to house more people. Except that's illegal, so instead the market is stuck pricing by convenience, and you get a society that demands it's working class spend two or more unpaid hours of their lives each day driving from the suburbs into the city.

Historically, the transition to suburban home ownership as the default mode of living was also something dictated by elites rather than organically decided upon. To explain this we need to talk about cars, because suburbs and cars are basically a package deal. It is extremely inconvenient to live in the suburbs without owning a car, and cars do not work in cities where they have to compete for limited road space against pedestrians and public transit.

So the car companies demanded that the laws and cities change to make their business work. We invented the """crime""" of jaywalking[0] just to make cities more convenient to access in a large vehicle. Car companies even bought up and destroyed public transit, turning efficient streetcar and rail systems into buses that had to compete for road space with individual riders, and often lost. This meant more people having to buy back their freedom[1] by moving to the suburbs and buying cars to get to the job they used to walk to.

Had this decision not been made through top-down power and social engineering[2], the suburbanization of America would have been far more limited. We can see this in much of Europe and Asia, where attempts to level and rebuild cities in Henry Ford's divine image were resisted at every turn.

[0] "jay" is old-timey derogatory slang for rural farmers, roughly equivalent to today's "hick".

[1] I should point out that this freedom was an illusion because road capacity is far more limited for cars than it is for people. Suburbs will inevitably jam their streets and highways in ways that dense urban spaces cannot.

[2] As in, engineering society to work a certain way, not defrauding someone out of their login password

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