Live data from Hacker News

Crazy New Ideas

paulgraham.com

761–770 of 808 posts

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#761
post #388

Lots of comments already, but I'll chime on in. I realized this very late in life, but I have a test for when it's time to pay attention to a new technology. It's when technical people look at what seems like a groundbreaking idea, seem unimpressed, and say "couldn't you just _____", were the blank is filled with something a nontechnical person doesn't understand or considers very cumbersome. The web: couldn't you ju…

Great observation! It feels to me kind of like the 'blub' problem [0], in that these are both cases where technical folks misjudge the utility of something new (to them) because it merely makes it easy to do something, instead of making it possible to do something. And maybe that 'something' they either don't know they want, or don't realize how often they would use it if it were available, or don't appreciate that others want.

Edit: It might also be an example of the curse of knowledge: what seems trivial to an expert may be a showstopper for a layperson. An expert suffering the curse would implicitly assume that everyone else has the same knowledge sufficient to make convoluted method seem trivial.

[0] http://paulgraham.com/avg.html [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curse_of_knowledge

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#762
post #580

Isn't this the issue Joseph Campbell addressed? The journey a person with a crazy new idea endures? And, how in all different cultures the redeemer, a person solving an issue that their society needs to address, have the same symbolic characteristics. You and your children experience this not in a philosophy or mythology class but at every moment someone mentions a Star Wars or Marvel reference[0]. Disney keeps telli…

I think Campbell's "journey" is about storytelling and the narrative journey, with a heavy dose of Jungian psychology, not about tech/science ideas. So I'd say it doesn't fit here.

[deleted]

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#763
post #604
post #580

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Campbell's "journey" is about storytelling and the narrative journey, with a heavy dose of Jungian psychology, not about tech/science ideas. So I'd say it doesn't fit here.

That's the part that screenwriters often talk about. But his book, The Hero with a Thousand Faces, covers more than that and there are insights applicable to being a scientist. A key insight is that mythology's interpersonal structures are special to people, and our minds are wired to see them everywhere. A neuro-Bayesian might call them a prior. As a result, if your role in society somewhat resembles an archetype, t…

Newton's law of universal gravitation is quite useful even if not fully accurate. Psychologically and sociologically people especially children need to be informed and inherit a tradition which is done through story telling. Campbell points out that humans haven't changed physiologically in the last 10,000 years, what has changed are the traditions passed down by story telling. Contained in myths is more than how to tell a captivating and compelling story but also how to use symbolism, perhaps a more direct language than words. He says the myths, which people carry in their memory and thoughts as they go about their lives, serve four main functions. The first is dealing with the mystery of the universe and the human condition. Then it has a cosmological function to describe the universe and phenomena such as thunder and lightning which we now do with science. It has a sociological function informing people how to behave and act in their society and culture. And, lastly, a pedagogical function. Perhaps one day we can explain the mind and consciousness with neurology but like Newton's law, spirituality, symbolism, and mythology is very useful today.

In the context of Disney's use of mythological symbolism in their story telling, it has everything to do with tech/science. When children repeatedly watch movies like Marvel's Black Panther and pretend to be the character by dressing up, the characters become that child's identity. When they are faced with new situations like going to a new school or having to deal with bullying, they are informed how to deal with the situation by the memory of the story. In the Black Panther there is a fictional highly technologically advanced nation called Wakanda. This isn't just about telling a compelling story, it is deliberate informing girls especially girls of African decent of what their relation to the society they are born into is. The character Shuri is Head of the Science and Information Exchange. Someone at Disney decided to put a black woman in charge and this is the sociological function of the myth watched by hundreds of millions of children all around the Earth. That is a crazy new idea.

One thing these girls who grew up to become scientists will have to face is after investing 4 years in college and another 4 in graduate school they likely will be discriminated against because of the color of their skin or being female. The hero's journey is one of several mythological plots and it is the one these girls will need to be informed with at that point in order to prevent complete psychological breakdown when they face that challenge. Anyone with a crazy new idea whether it is in engineering, science, making movies based on comic books, music, or literature will have a similar journey.

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#764

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting that you need any of this spelling out, especially as you're so irate about a turn of phrase, but even the post you're replying to here is politely spelling it out for you. Reputation _is_ money when you're a VC. You appear to be arguing with yourself and making up things to be angry about.

Nope, but I understand it's more convenient to think that.

Nope, but I understand you want to carry on being the only one that thinks that.

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#765
post #689
post #672

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know if she was or not, nor if that idea would particularly count as crazy. It's a little silly to misread pg as saying that every such idea must be true. Also, why be so mean? It only makes things worse.

Are you sure that a community idolizing the utterances of a winning gambler isn't what makes everything worse?

There are many things making things worse, and one does not rule out another, so that question is a bit of a distraction. I'd like to know what you think you gain by being so mean. Surely that's not the kind of person you want to be?

The idea that this community "idolizes" PG is trivially disproven by glancing through any recent thread on his writings, including this one.

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#766
post #562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[deleted]

I would login to my other account if I hadn't thrown the password away. Persecuted? No. Pretty damn aware of the many times that people immediately downvoted every comment of mine they could? Yes. I'm a bog boy, I don't care about Internet points, but I also don't enjoy spending my days with people so petty and small. Grown, professional adults no less. If I feel persecuted, maybe it's because I like a lot of HNers k…

I agree with you about people being ugly to each other, but it's easy to fall into doing that oneself even while perceiving all the ugliness as coming from others. This is the core problem here. It may be the core problem in other places too.

The solution has to include each of us seeing how we too add ugliness, and for this there's a difficult precondition: we have to be willing to look at that regardless of how badly other people are behaving. It always feels like the other person started it and did worse. Putting attention primarily on that feeling, which is what most of us do, is a recipe for a downward spiral—one can justify literally anything that way.

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#767

  A new idea is a beautiful and fragile thing. Attack people, not ideas.
Explains those attacking pg instead of his ideas. I guess.

Reasonable domain experts sometimes keep proposing the same idea, because it would be so cool. e.g. onlive, gaikai, stadia. Investors overlook the latency problem (BTW starlink might solve this) because of its compelling business advantages. Aka wishful thinking.

Analogous to Chesterton's fence (reforms should not be made until reasons for the current system are understood), paradigm-breakers could say upfront what new insight makes their idea plausible. This also makes for compelling and exciting marketing.

I really like the section on paradigms, particularly how they "vacuum up the trail of crumbs that led to them".

On the one hand, becoming proficient in the current paradigm makes it harder to see other ways (in the beginner's mind there are many possibilities, in the expert's mind there are few), not least of all because of its cognitive load. On the other hand, without that proficiency, you can't stand on the shoulders of giants.

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#768
post #750

Seems like the privacy implications of this are not worth it for any serious company. I was watching Rudy Giuliani yesterday on youtube, talk about how the FBI accessed and monitored his iCloud account for over a year. Which included his privileged lawyer/client information. If they can do that to a president's lawyer, while he's defending the president. They can do it to anyone.

Do you have a source for that? It seems extremely implausible for a number of reasons.

Sure, Rudy made a video detailing the FBI breach of his iCloud account. [Starts at the 18:30 minute mark]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcjaaBcmUVg

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#769

I think "attacking" Crazy New Ideas is how we develop them, iron out the kinks and test our understanding. Criticism is an essential part of the journey from crazy new idea to accepted wisdom. However, the main problem I have with with this article is that it divides people into domain experts and the rest. This kind of black and white thinking is pervasive in PG essays, and always lead to a cute conclusion. You can…

>I think "attacking" Crazy New Ideas is how we develop them, iron out the kinks and test our understanding. Criticism is an essential part of the journey from crazy new idea to accepted wisdom.

It depends upon the level of attack. Outright dismissal without consideration compared to critique. Is the intent to destroy the idea so it goes away or to test it for flaws? That's done by the suggestion given to ask questions. Instead of saying "this is stupid", figure out why your think it is stupid and turn it into a question. Such a question is a soft attack, one that may be met with an explanation without needing for direct conflict, or which may be met with a 'I haven't considered that, let me think on it' or a 'That's one of the flaws I'm still working on'.

>However, the main problem I have with with this article is that it divides people into domain experts and the rest.

While the presentation did present this as an overly binary classification, I don't think the intention (that I perceived) is wrong. Some people have more experience in certain things, and given we are all mortals with limited time, we need to have some way to decide how much attention we give ideas and using relative expertise in domains seems a decent filter. This does not have to be perfect, because the result is not accepting the idea but instead not outright rejecting the idea. In cases where the idea still is mistaken it will still be revealed under critique. It is a test to determine what should be given the chance to be critiqued given limited time and resources.

It would lead to experts overlooking ideas from sources who don't have expertise, but I think that is acceptable for two reasons. First, there are already a flood of ideas so applying a filter that lets more through will still lead to ideas not being considered, but this time due to a lack of time and resources. Second, this is all relative so a good idea from a non-expert would still pass the filter for someone who is slightly more of an expert. If they find it passes their critique it now is able to pass filters of people who are more of experts in their fields. Good ideas can still bubble up (we just need to take care that they are correctly attributed).

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#770

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am really surprised that you didn't choose the more obvious line of reasoning, which would be to bring up examples of companies that PG predicted to be breakout successes and then they failed. PG marveled about Instacart and Flexport well before anyone else, including myself (I know members of the founding teams in both companies very well, and think very highly of them... but even so, I didn't see their companies…

Yep, you can actually go through the list of companies YC has funded on the website and most of them are out of business today (as you’d expect based on the stats on VC backed ventures). Of course, nobody talks about those.

I am struggling to understand what you're trying to say. Technically what you said is perfectly correct, but in a "the sun goes up in the morning and comes down in the evening" kind of a way. I doubt there are many people on Hacker News who don't realize that most VC backed ventures fail.

What would have been more insightful is a conversation around relative benchmarks. For example, "do YC companies fail at a higher rate than the cohort of equally funded companies?" (hint: no).

Or perhaps, if you're trying to criticize the VC industry, perhaps ask, "if a VC put in money in every YC company since the beginning of YC, what would their IRR be today?" (hint: massive).

Post reply on HN