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I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

simonwillison.net

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Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#751

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, that exists at the wider business level. No question. I think what needs to get asked is are we talking about a bottleneck within the business as a whole, or a bottleneck within the scope of the knowledge work in question. Within software delivery there's a very clear shift when it's suddenly trivial to drop a 100kLoC plausible-looking PR into code review within an afternoon. Producing working code with a whole…

Trusting CodeRabbit for sign-off is "just" a small matter of configuration.

And convincing your org that such a thing is safe to do, which is decidedly not.

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#752

They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…

The fuck is going on with HN that a comment making up completely fantastical numbers is on top?

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#753

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why on earth would AI labs be bragging about how little the product they sell actually costs them to make? You don't want to do anything that reduces it's perceived value to the user, that might make them less willing to pay for it. Also, inference costs are bound to go way down with more optimized architectures. GPUs are fundamentally not great at inference. No platform where the weights are streamed from a large po…

Went to that URL asked one question - "how is this different from other AI" and it took 598/6144 tokens, not sure what that means.

Not super clear from the site itself, but this LLM is running on specialized silicon implementing just it. So has super low energy use and blazing speed.

See https://taalas.com/products/

Edit: updated link

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#755

They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…

At some point, if we reach stability on the models, we'll start getting silicon optimized for individual models. They are optimizing for time to market, not efficiency right now. I don't know how much it will move the needle on the cost math, but at this scale any improvement has a crazy multiplier.

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#756
post #710

They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…

> They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t What are you basing this on? For reference, Anthropic raised ~$70 billion in total and OpenAI ~$190 billion. Why do they need to make 20-40x that?

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Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#757
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Large enterprises make deals and won’t be paying 2,180.16$ either. Just like with AWS

That doesn't seem to be the case. From what I've seen enterprise deals get API pricing now. Have you seen evidence that's not true?

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Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#758
post #710

They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…

> They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t What are you basing this on? For reference, Anthropic raised ~$70 billion in total and OpenAI ~$190 billion. Why do they need to make 20-40x that?

[dead]

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#759

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm about to leave a shallow comment, but I am a bit skeptical of the supposed drop in inference costs. If AI labs saw a lot of potential there, they'd surely be bragging about it non-stop? So the fact that publicly available information is conflicted is probably a sign that at the very least, the numbers aren't amazing. Yes I know there's no evidence and this is lazy reasoning. But there's probably a bit of truth to…

Why on earth would AI labs be bragging about how little the product they sell actually costs them to make? You don't want to do anything that reduces it's perceived value to the user, that might make them less willing to pay for it. Also, inference costs are bound to go way down with more optimized architectures. GPUs are fundamentally not great at inference. No platform where the weights are streamed from a large po…

> Why on earth would AI labs be bragging about how little the product they sell actually costs them to make?

Investor confidence. They have a bit of a need for cash (also an interesting part of the profitability discussion of course).

> Also, inference costs are bound to go way down with more optimized architectures

I agree. Jimmy is incredible, I wonder what non-toy use cases they have. Surely they’ll come out with updated chips soon.

That said, I was apparently a bit over-excited for Groq and Cerebras. I thought they’d quickly dethrone Nvidia for inference, but not so far. Even the GPT spark trial isn’t seeming to go far.

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#760
post #563

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bubble popped when they increased prices. IPO may help cover some of the costs, but AI is very elastic and can be swapped out for any other company second to second. Which is why I think they bought up ram and disks like they did, to starve out competition and local models.

Correct. That’s exactly right. The move to buy up ram is straight out of a industrial organisation textbook.

It was the root concession that scale will not solve AGI
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