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AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

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751–760 of 783 posts

Re: AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

#751
post #607

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No they are not. They are exponentially increasing. Due to the exponential scaling needed for linear gain. Otherwise they'd fall behind their competition.

Fixed cost here means that the training costs stay the same no matter how many customers you have - unlike serving costs which have to increase to serve more people.

Yet somewhere above you said:

>Training costs are fixed at whatever billions of dollars per year.

Which I think is the part people disagree with.

Re: AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

#752

Just to be clear, the article is NOT criticizing this. To the contrary, it's presenting it as expected , thanks to Solow's productivity paradox [1]. Which is that information technology similarly (and seemingly shockingly) didn't produce any net economic gains in the 1970's or 1980's despite all the computerization. It wasn't until the mid-to-late 1990's that information technology finally started to show clear benef…

It’s also pretty wild to me how people still don’t really even know how to use it. On hacker news, a very tech literate place, I see people thinking modern AI models can’t generate working code. The other day in real life I was talking to a friend of mine about ChatGPT. They didn’t know you needed to turn on “thinking” to get higher quality results. This is a technical person who has worked at Amazon. You can’t expec…

>You can’t expect revolutionary impact while people are still learning how to even use the thing. We’re so early.

What makes you think people this will ever change? Have you seen how well people know their already existing tools?

Re: AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

#753

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If AGI is coming, won't there just be autofishers and no one will ever have to fish again, completely devaluing one's fishing knowledge and the effort put in to learn it?

> If AGI is coming spoiler, it's not

Evey now model is better than a previous one. When and why it is going to stop? Current models are limited by DC capacity which is rapidly expanded. Genuinely curious, I don't know the answer.

Re: AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

#754

Earlier quoted context omitted.

10 days ago someone was making this claim about copilot on legacy code: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46932609 > Github Copilot has been great in getting that code coverage up marginally but ass otherwise.

That's a completely different claim. Or do you think an AI can always, without fail, produce working code in every situation? That's trivially false.

It's also trivially true that an AI has at least once been able to write a working hello world.

When someone claims that AI can't generate working code I assume that it means consistently generating working code. We're talking about a tool. It has to work more often than not and on codebases that we tend to work with, i.e legacy code.

Personally I don't claim that because I'm using everyday to generate working code.

Re: AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

#755

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually job numbers are depressed (hiring recession) and GDP numbers are still way up, both precisely due to the AI investment. More output with fewer people. Wild take to cite a recession when last quarter growth was 4.4%.

"The economy" is not GDP.

Firstly, nobody said 'the economy' so I don't know why you're even putting it in quotation marks.

Secondly, GDP is the best measure of output / value-add we have, and it's significantly up, despite jobs being down.

Output going up with fewer people means more productivity. That's the point that was being made.

Recessions are measured in economics by tracking GDP, which the person I replied to said we're in. We're not.

Whatever concept of "the economy" you had in mind to bring more nuance and refinement to a discussion, which is possible and welcome, and which you haven't bothered to add, doesn't refute the basics above.

Re: AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

#756

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But there are many Youtubers making a decent living doing it as a one person shop or a small team. In the past, you needed to a large team with a large budget and buy in from TV/DVDs/VHS to get an audience.

https://alanspicer.com/what-percentage-of-youtubers-make-mon... Claims 0.25% of channels makes any money at all. The amount that make a decent living is realistically even smaller, possibly To me the YouTube example seems to be the exact demonstration that markets saturate and market distribution is still a winner-takes-all kind of deal.

0.25% of channels, how many of them even want to make money?

0.25% of how many?

Average size of YouTube channel team that makes money vs TV channel team in the 2000s?

Re: AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

#757

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is exactly what I meant, a centrally-planned economy where the state owns everything and people are forced to give everything up is just one terrible (Soviet) model, not some defining feature of socialism. Yugoslavia was extremely successful, with economic growth that matched or exceeded most capitalist European economies post-WW2. In some ways it wasn't as free as western societies are today but it definitely w…

"just one terrible (Soviet) model" It is the model, introduced basically everywhere where socialism was taken seriously. It is like saying that cars with four wheels are just one terrible model, because there were a few cars with three wheels. Yugoslavia was a mixed economy with a lot of economic power remaining in private hands. You cannot point at it and say "hey, successful socialism". Tito was a mortal enemy of S…

This is not really a contradiction. When the world became bipolar, there was a lot of alpha in arbitrage. The most valuable Yugoslav (state owned) company was Genex, which was an import/export company -- it would import from one bloc and export to the other bloc, because neither bloc wanted to admit that the other bloc had something they needed. (This set the Yugoslavs up for failure, like so many other countries that believed that the global market would make them rich).

The Soviets and their satellites (like the DDR), had another problem related to arbitrage, and that is that their professionals (such as doctors and engineers and scientists, all of whom received high quality, free, state-subsidized education), were being poached by the Western Bloc countries (a Soviet or East German engineer would work for half the local salary in France or West Germany, _and_ they would be a second class citizen, easy to frighten with deportation -- the half-salary was _much_ greater than what they could earn in the Eastern Bloc). The iron curtain was erected to prevent this kind of arbitrage (why should the Soviets and satellites subsidize Western medicine and engineering? Shouldn't a capitalist market system be able to sustain itself? Well no, market systems are inefficient by design, and so they only work as _open_ systems and not _closed_ systems -- they need to _externalize_ the costs and _internalize_ the gains, which is why colonialism was a thing to begin with, and why the "third world" is _still_ a thing).

Note that after the Berlin Wall fell, the first thing to happen was mass migrations of all kinds of professionals (such as architects and doctors) and semi-professionals (such as welders and metal-workers), creating an economic decline in the East, and an economic and demographic boom in the West (the reunification of Germany was basically a _demographic_ subsidy -- in spite of the smaller size, East Germany had much higher birth rates for _decades_; and after the East German labor pool was integrated, Western economies sought to integrate the remaining Eastern labor pools (more former Yugoslavs live abroad in Germany than in any other non-Yugo part of the world [the USA numbers are iffy, but if true Croatians are the only exception, with ~2M residents in USA, which seems unlikely]).

The problem, in the end, is that all of these countries are bound by economic considerations (this is thesis of Marx, by the way), and they cannot escape the vicious arbitrage cycle (I mean, here in the USA, we have aggressively been brain-draining _ourselves_ since at least 1980, which is why we have the extreme polarization, stagnation, and instability _today_ -- it is reminiscent of the Soviet situation in the mid 1980s to late 1990s). Not without something like a world government (if there is only one account to manage, there is no possibility of deficit or surplus, unless measured inter-temporally), or an alternative flavor of globalization.

Internationalism is a wonderful ideology, and one that I support. You can make the case that Yugoslavia, the USSR, etc, were an early experiment in Internationalism, that each succumbed to corruption and unclear thinking (a citizenry that is _inclusive_ by nature and can _think_ clearly is a hard requirement for any successful polity). Globalization, on the other hand, has a bit of an Achilles Heel: when countries asked why they should open their borders and economies to outsider/foreigners, they were told, "so that we can all get rich!". The problem is that once the economic gains get squeezed out of globalization, countries will start looking for new ways to rich, even if it means reversing decades of integration. Appealing to people's greed only works to the extent that you can placate their appetites. We should have justified Internationalism using _intrinsic_ arguments: "we should integrate because learning how others see and experience the world is intrinsically beautiful, and worth struggling for".

Note that most of these economic pathologies disappear, when the reserve currency (dollar) is replaced with a self-balancing currency (like Keynes' Bancor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bancor). We have the tools, but everyone wants to feel like the only/greatest winner. These are the first people that have to be exiled.

Re: AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

#758

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> LLM's are notoriously bad at this. The noise to signal ratio is unacceptably high I could go either way on the future of this, but if you take the argument that we're still early days, this may not hold. They're notoriously bad at this so far . We could still be in the PC DOS 3.X era in this timeline. Wait until we hit the Windows 3.1, or 95 equivalent. Personally, I have seen shocking improvements in the past 3 mo…

First impressions are everything. It's going to be hard to claw back good will without a complete branding change. But... where do you go from 'AI'???

There's many things that used to be called AI, but as their shortcomings became known we started dropping them from the AI bucket and referring to them by a more specific name: expert systems, machine learning, etc. Decades later plenty of people never learned this and those things don't pop into mind with "AI" so LLMs were able to take over the term.

Given time I could see this happening again.

Re: AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

#759
post #751
post #607

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fixed cost here means that the training costs stay the same no matter how many customers you have - unlike serving costs which have to increase to serve more people.

Yet somewhere above you said: >Training costs are fixed at whatever billions of dollars per year. Which I think is the part people disagree with.

I used the word "fixed" there to indicate that the cost of training is unaffected by how many users you have, unlike the cost of serving the model which increases as your usage increases.

Re: AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

#760
The "productivity gain" in the world of bits has been pretty much exponential for 100 years. But as they spill over into the world of atoms, they flatten into step changes, because you lose the compounding effect.

I do think we are on the verge of something tho. Once the compounding effect happens in the world of atoms (recursive robotics), it's over.

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