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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

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Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#751

Post by ActorNightly »

peder wrote: post #301
chrisco255 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody is cheering for inflation to get worse, they are celebrating it being held down to 2.7% after higher inflation a few years ago. The U.S. is a net exporter of oil and food and self-sufficent for majority of its mineral needs as well. There is no need for U.S. to crash its currency to incentivize domestic production, it can just impose tariffs on imports to do so.

Precisely. People in this thread almost seem mad that the economy didn't crash in Trump's first year.

Hope and wishing aside, if you think anything Trump is doing is gonna benefit the economy, you really show your ideological side.

For example, businesses are hesitant to invest in domestic manufacture because the tarrifs can be undone by next president. But the reputation that US is building right now cant be undone. Investment in manufacturing takes years, not to mention that its not like America has lots of people wanting to go work in mines and factories. Meawhile as countries with sane leaders adjust, US is gonna be less and less relevant.

So in 5 or so years when your house value and investments are way down and there is a Dem president and you think about complaining about economy is bad under liberals, remeber who cause it all. Most of the current economic problems that existed in late 2020s have origins with Reagan era economics.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#752

Post by cco »

I strongly encourage interested folks to read Miran's "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System" (I won't link directly since it auto-downloads a PDF).

Miran, and his thinking, clearly have this admin's ear and they're following many of the prescribed steps in his white paper. To the T frankly.

So if you're surprised by the USD devaluing by 10% last year or the immense pressure to drop the fed rate to under 2% by next year, well the reasoning and strategy is all laid out very clearly in the above whitepaper.

No confusion necessary! They explain every (terrifying) bit of their plan in that paper.

What is left out, and why I say it is terrifying, is that the whitepaper is academic and basically leaves uncovered any of the _political_ ramifications of these economic changes. And of course, those political ramifications can be immense.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#753

Post by ericmcer »

Jtsummers wrote: post #545
ericmcer wrote: post #519

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like many are going to upvote this because they think it is an indictment on the current administration but it isn't exactly.

> I feel like many are going to upvote this because they think it is an indictment on the current administration but it isn't exactly. Is it not? Quoting myself: >> are actively undoing the institutions that were instrumental in US economic and political power at that time. Who is undoing those institutions? That'd be the current administration.

Ah I was seeing a parallel between:

1. Our post WW2 neocolonial activity and the current admins push to sort of blatantly get control over Venezuela and Greenland.

2. Our WW2 manufacturing and export based economy that made us wealthy. Is similar to the current admins push to reform us from importers to exporters using tariffs and rebuilding manufacturing (at least on the surface the execution of this has been terrible).

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#754

Post by jmyeet »

mullingitover wrote: post #383

I remember studying pre-WWI history, and particularly how carefully Bismarck arranged German foreign policy like he was the diplomatic equivalent of Bobby Fischer. Everything was situated perfectly and Germany was totally content. Then along came the absolute moron Wilhelm, and he managed to Leroy Jenkins Germany's beautifully arranged relationships into an aggressive, tactless nightmare where all Germany's allies we…

I don't think you can compare pre-WWI Germany to the US for many reasons. In the colonial era, Germany as a fairly new state and unlike the UK, Spain, France, even Portugal or the Netherlands, they didn't have colonies to exploit. Worse, in the industrialization era they didn't have access to oil.

This created a paranoia in Germany, an insecurity that were between Great Powers and were dependent on imports and poorer than their neighbours. They felt like they'd eventually get swallowed unless they did something and the end result was WWI. And WW2 if you think about it.

The cost of victory against Germany (twice) was huge. All those Great Powers lost their colonies and they impoverished themselves with war economies while enriching the United States who, at times, sold arms to all sides.

The US is that Great Power now, complete with colonies. It's energy independent too. So it's nohting like Germany. In fact it's turned Europe into a client state (ie through NATO). These aren't colonies in the British Empire sense of occupying India, for example. It's economic colonialism. The Global South is controlled via the IMF and World Bank. The developed world is controlled with security gurantees.

But where I agree with you is that an absolutel moron has come along and threatens to dismantle this entire system. That's what's happening. Splintering NATO, abolishing USAID, etc all diminish American soft (and hard) power.

China's foreign policy has become to sit and wait while the US destroys itself. They don't have to do anything anymore. It's why i laugh when people predict China will invade Taiwan. No they won't. Why? Because they don't have to. As a reminder, One China is the official policy of the US government.

My problem is that empires don't die quietly. They die violently. And we're going to see a wave of fascism. Things are going to get much, much worse before they get better.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#755

Post by glompers »

roenxi wrote: post #676
legitster wrote: post #596

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obviously, but we're comparing apples and oranges here. - Iraq was never a major oil concern for the US . Perhaps maybe stabilizing global oil prices - but the primary beneficiaries were actually our European and Asian allies. - We never just "took" the oil for our domestic market (which is what we are basically doing in Venezuela) - Even policymakers who have publicly admitted that Iraq was a massive intelligence an…

> - Even policymakers who have publicly admitted that Iraq was a massive intelligence and political failure all agree that regional stability was always the main goal. And in their spare time they pretend to sell bridges to people? Nobody sane would believe that invading a country promotes regional stability. The idea is absurdist, the point of invading a country is destabilising it and disrupting any power that the…

The Assad dictatorships in Syria and the Hussein regime in Iraq were proponents of Baathism. The former had occupied Lebanon and invaded Israel while the latter had invaded Iran in 1980 and annexed Kuwait in 1990.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#756

Post by troad »

elAhmo wrote: post #522
hnburnsy wrote: post #77

For those who are not bothering to read this,the article essentially states that de-dollarization is happening in pockets (e.g., reserves down to ~58-60%, Treasuries foreign ownership at 30%), but the dollar's core dominance persists. What would replace it? I guess the options are Yuan, Gold, Oil or maybe BRICS in the future, none of which are safe, stable, and liquid.

I can't believe people actually bring BRICS in serious discussions.

HN is great for technical discussions, but is below average for political or macroeconomic discussions. A HN comment thread on those topics is essentially indistinguishable from a NYT comments section, which I mean as an unfavourable comparison.

Turns out that being good at SQL does not make one good at the subtle social art / science of power and governance. If anything, the correlation is inverse. This shouldn't be surprising.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#757

Post by kayamon »

jyounker wrote: post #673
kayamon wrote: post #472

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many bars of gold get moved round the world every second?

Talk about moving the goalposts.

Ain't no football game son. Bitcoin clears faster than any other world reserve candidate. Every ten minutes, electricity gets traded. Tick tock.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#758

Post by kayamon »

throwaway132448 wrote: post #605
kayamon wrote: post #469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It'll all still be there when you get it back.

Why would you get it back?

--You don't want the bank to give you your money back?--

edit: I misunderstood, or do you mean why would you get your internet back? If you're not getting your internet back, I can only offer you're not getting your money back either.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#759

Post by einpoklum »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #158
einpoklum wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US is making an absolute mockery over the honor and responsibility etc. The US was a rather empire without many scruples before WW2 and after it. It engaged in genocide in Vietnam, and was complicit in several others, including the ongoing one in Gaza - which was sanctioned, funded and facilitated first and foremost by the Biden-Harris administration. So, without detracting from Trump's crimes and jingoist rhet…

I'm afraid I completely disagree with you and am not interested in arguing further than this. Vietnam, Korea, Iraq, Gaza, and so many others are atrocities but they are well understood by anyone with a casual understanding of 20th century geopolitics. Anything you could list is awful but still respected the norms and rules that exist between nation states. There is not a high bar for these things, but some people wit…

> Anything you could list is awful but still respected the norms and rules that exist between nation states.

It absolutely did not. Perhaps the elites and the mass media in the US tell this to each other, but in (most of) the rest of the world, that doesn't fly.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#760

Post by duskwuff »

spicyusername wrote: post #181
znnajdla wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A goat or a sheep cost roughly the same in gold today as it cost 2000 years ago during the Roman Empire. Gold is the only “real money” in the sense that it is the only stable measure of the value of basic needs over centuries. https://chatgpt.com/share/696fb3e8-91d4-800a-9b2b-32eacdadeb...

First link to ChatGPT as a "source" that I've seen in the wild. Times they are a-changing. I can't say that anyone is going to find that very convincing, even if it's a compelling idea to consider gold inflation over the centuries.

Unless there's something I'm missing, there isn't even a response at the link - just a question.

(And if that was how the user posed the question, I'd be concerned that priming the chat with "is it true that..." biased the response towards "yes, it's true".)

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