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The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

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Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#751

Post by perrygeo »

simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

Such an important point, I've seen and suspected the end of ZIRP being a much much greater influence on white collar work than we suspect. AI is going to take all the negative press but the flow of capital is ultimately what determines how the business works, which determines what software gets built. Conway's law 101. The white collar bloodbath is more of a haircut to shed waste accumulated during the excesses of ZIRP.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#752

Post by brrt »

godelski wrote: post #672
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #653

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I basically agree with you, and I think the thing that is missing from a bunch of responses that disagree is that it seems fairly apparent now that AI has largely hit a brick wall in terms of the benefits of scaling. That is, most folks were pretty astounded by the gains you could get from just stuffing more training data into these models, but like someone who argues a 15 year old will be 50 feet tall based on the l…

> it seems fairly apparent now that AI has largely hit a brick wall in terms of the benefits of scaling What's annoying is plenty of us (researchers) predicted this and got laughed at. Now that it's happening, it's just quiet. I don't know about the rest, but I spoke up because I didn't want to hit a brick wall, I want to keep going! I still want to keep going! But if accurate predictions (with good explanations) are…

Sure, you were right.

But if you had been wrong and we would now have had superintelligence, the upside for its owners would presumably be great.

... Or at least that's the hypothesis. As a matter of fact intelligence is only somewhat useful in the real world :-)

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#753

Post by singron »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #575
tdeck wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a good reminder that every org is different. However some companies like Microsoft are aggressively pushing AI tools internally, to a degree that is almost cringe.

I don't want to shill for LLMs-for-devs, but I think this is excellent corporate strategy by Microsoft. They are dog-fooding LLMs-for-devs. In a sense, this is R&D using real world tests. It is a product manager's dream. The Google web-based office productivity suite is similar. I heard a rumor that at some point Google senior mgmt said that nearly all employees (excluding accounting) must use Google Docs. I am sure…

Google docs has gotten a little better in that time, but it's honestly surprisingly unchanged. I think what really changed is that we all stopped wanting to layout docs for printing and became happier with the simpler feature set (along with collaboration and distribution).

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#754

Post by brandall10 »

pydry wrote: post #661
bootsmann wrote: post #634

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Trump didnt kick off the layoffs. It was the war with Russia that drove the fed to raise interest rates in 2022 - a measure that was intended to curb inflation triggered by spikes in the prices of economic inputs (gas, oil, fertilizer, etc.). The tech layoffs started later that year. Widespread job cuts are an intended effect of raising interest rates - more unemployed = less spending = keeps a lid on inflation. AI i…

Anecdotally, I detected a cooling starting in March of 2022.

Was actively looking at this time for months prior and it went from a few recruiters a day reaching out to a few a week.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#755

Post by diego_moita »

tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

That is a smart question.

In 1987 the economist Robert Solow said "You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics".

We should remark he said this long before the internet, web and mobile, so probably the remark needs an update.

However, I think it cuts through the salesmen hype. Anytime we see these kinds of claims we should reply "show me the numbers". I'll wait until economists make these big claims, will not trust CEOs and salesmen.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#756

Post by pixl97 »

threeseed wrote: post #612
pixl97 wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just like the internet was a fad, right?

Internet only became a fad once it was already large and had tens of millions of users. I remember the pre-Web days of Usenet and BBS and no one thought those were trendy. AI is far more akin to crypto.

Lots of people talk about crypto yet almost no one uses it.

Pretty much everyone I know uses AI for something.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#757

Post by subpixel »

ivape wrote: post #466
nradov wrote: post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's silly. You still need a way to track and prioritize tasks even if you use voice input. Jira may be replaced with something better, built around an LLM from the ground up. But the basic project management requirements will never go away.

Yes, that's quite easy. I say "Hey reorganize the tasks like-so, prioritize this, like so", and if I really need to, I can go ahead and hook up some function calls but I suspect this will be unnecessary with a few more LLM iterations (if even that). You can keep running from how powerful these LLMs are, but I'll just sit and wait for the business/startup apocalypse (which is coming). Jira will not be replaced by some…

I agree with you to a point.

In smaller businesses some roles won’t need to be hired anymore.

Meanwhile in big corps, some roles may transition from being the source of presumed expertise to being one neck to choke.

I’d love it not to be true, but the truth is Jira is to projects what Slack/Teams are to messaging. When everybody is a project manager Jira gets paid more, not less.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#758

Post by fallingknife »

simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

ZIRP had little to do with it. Tech is less levered than any other major industry. What happened is that growth expectations for large tech companies were way out of line with reality and finally came back down to earth when the market finally realized that the big tech cos are actually mature profitable companies and not just big startups. The fact that this happened at the same time ZIRP ended is a coincidence.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#759

Post by fallingknife »

pydry wrote: post #661
bootsmann wrote: post #634

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Trump didnt kick off the layoffs. It was the war with Russia that drove the fed to raise interest rates in 2022 - a measure that was intended to curb inflation triggered by spikes in the prices of economic inputs (gas, oil, fertilizer, etc.). The tech layoffs started later that year. Widespread job cuts are an intended effect of raising interest rates - more unemployed = less spending = keeps a lid on inflation. AI i…

Raising interest rates has nothing to do with the 2022 war. If it did, rates would have come back down. Interest rate increases don't help with supply/demand driven price spikes. They do help with money supply and aggregate demand driven inflation, which was the cause of our recent inflation (that started way before Russia invaded Ukraine). The war was a convenient excuse because it deflects responsibility.

And remember when they first said inflation was "transitory" and caused by supply chain issues from the economy reopening after covid? They didn't raise interest rates then because, like I mentioned above, interest rates don't help with supply shocks. If they did, the Fed would have raised rates then.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#760

Post by FabHK »

kergonath wrote: post #580
autobodie wrote: post #518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keynes lived in a time when the working class was organized and exerting its power over its destiny. We live in a time that the working class is unbelievably brainwashed and manipulated.

He was extrapolating, as well. Going from children in the mines to the welfare state in a generation was quite something. Unfortunately, progress slowed down significantly for many reasons but I don’t think we should really blame Keynes for this. > We live in a time that the working class is unbelievably brainwashed and manipulated. I think it has always been that way. Looking through history, there are many examples…

> progress slowed down significantly for many reasons

I think progress (in the sense of economic growth) was roughly in line with what Keynes expected. What he didn't expect is that people, instead of getting 10x the living standard with 1/3 the working hours, rather wanted to have 30x the living standard with the same working hours.

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