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U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

wsj.com

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Re: U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

#751

Post by dctoedt »

rayiner wrote: post #709
_DeadFred_ wrote: post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stop. Dude isn't interested in a real answer, he's concern trolling. He propogandizes his position over and over on this site.

I’m not concern trolling. I don’t want a single U.S. soldier on Ukraine soil. It’s a red line. I’m asking whether a security guarantee increases the risk of that happening.

When Germany reoccupied the Rhineland in 1936, British and French forces could easily have rolled to Berlin and deposed Hitler. They didn't, for domestic political reasons that were no less catastrophic for being understandable (war-weary citizenry, plus wishful thinking about Hitler).

The best time to have stood up to Putin was 2014. The next best time is right [expletive] now.

Re: U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

#752

Post by onlypassingthru »

codedokode wrote: post #722
onlypassingthru wrote: post #706

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can both agree that arming Ukraine with more missiles will guarantee more casualties and suffering... for the Russians. And in response, Russia will do what exactly? Send more golf cart brigades or more North Koreans? It's not like Russia has enormous military resources they've been keeping as a surprise. No, if Russia could do anything differently they would already be doing it to win the 'Special Military Operat…

Draft more soldiers, for example. Missiles falling on Russian cities will increase motivation to go defend the country and will make a good cause for involuntary conscription.

If the Tsar does resort to involuntary conscription, I hope there are some Ukrainian drones around because we'll get to see the next Great Russian Revolution in 4k!

Re: U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

#753

Post by nanotuber »

david-gpu wrote: post #603
ceejayoz wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't know of any other latent nuclear states. Japan is sometimes described as a "screwdriver turn away from a bomb". They've got the materials, the know-how, the civilian nuclear program, and the rockets... and the geopolitics to be interested.

Arguably, most developed nations are in the same boat in terms of being able to build a bomb in relatively short notice. The main challenge is probably that refining uranium is intrinsically a slow process. I do wonder how many supposedly non-nuclear developed countries have secret small-scale refinement plants and the ability to assemble nuclear warheads in short notice. It is the sort of stuff that they wouldn't wa…

Any developed nation _with a well developed nuclear energy industry_ would be able to build a bomb with years of effort. There's a lot that goes into a bomb beyond refining (e.g. miniturization of warhead). And to deploy the bomb a ton of work to achieve the gold standard of a nuclear triad, plus build enough bombs to be survivable past an initial strike (to maintain deterrence).

If you learn of any countries with a secret program, let your local intelligence agency know. They monitor this closely, and intervene.

Re: U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

#754

Post by nanotuber »

onlypassingthru wrote: post #658
nanotuber wrote: post #635

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Certainly Russia's economy has difficulties. It has inflation roughly 9-10% and (dangerously low) unemployment around 1%. Russia's Central Bank key rate needs to be extremely high to fight its inflation because it is not as primary a lender as the US Fed for example - there's way more private lending. The inflation is caused by raising labor costs (due to unemployment), supply chain disruptions from sanctions, and we…

> Due to the national security nature of a hostile military alliance at its doorstep Finland shares a massive border with Russia and joined NATO almost 2 years ago and what 'hard choices' have been made since? Please, do tell!

For sure this is destabilizing to the security of the region.

One war at a time though.

Hard choices? There are so many. One is that Russia had to deploy a large number of air defense systems to the Finnish border, and as a result didn't have enough for Ukrainian strike drones. This has resulted in far more penetration of Ukrainian drones into Russian oil refineries and ports than would have otherwise happened, and forced Russia to allocate both capital and manpower to manufacturer larger numbers of air defense systems. Similar tradeoffs happened in other areas. For example Russia built multiple new battalions intended to counter potential NATO operations over the border, but doing this overwhelmed military training sites, forcing its sites to be time-shared and its Ukraine soldiers to receive less training, and its the cost of the Ukraine war to be significantly higher.

Asking this question is like asking if there would be hard choices for the US if Mexico entered a security alliance with Russia or China. Of course there are.

Re: U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

#755

Post by nanotuber »

lovich wrote: post #609
ceejayoz wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't know of any other latent nuclear states. Japan is sometimes described as a "screwdriver turn away from a bomb". They've got the materials, the know-how, the civilian nuclear program, and the rockets... and the geopolitics to be interested.

Biden also negotiated a deal which put refined nuclear material in Australia's hands http://npr.org/2023/03/13/1163153801/biden-is-selling-u-s-nu...

This is nuclear powered (long range) submarines.

Re: U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

#756

Post by justin66 »

codedokode wrote: post #668
tim333 wrote: post #613

Trump no doubt will say this is a negotiating ploy to get Zelensky to make concessions but you have to wonder why all the concessions have to be made by the victim and not the aggressor. Why not ask Putin to pause killing Ukranians or return some of the kidnapped children or some token of goodwill?

Because West has no means to put more pressure on Russia (they cannot even stop buying natural gas), so it has to talk nicely. US cannot demand, for example, that Russia gives them a share of their minerals and generally cannot demand anything. Actually in hindsight the best time for negotiations was somewhere in end of 2022, but that chance is long gone. But while West cannot demand, it still can offer (i.e. removin…

> Because West has no means to put more pressure on Russia

This is extremely silly. The west has hundreds of billions of dollars of Russian money, the west can supply Ukraine with weapons that are more modern than the nineties era stuff we've been sending, and the west just generally hasn't taken any of the steps it would take if NATO were really at war with Russia, as Russia whinges about. Why is Russia even connected to the internet anymore?

Re: U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

#757

Post by KiwiJohnno »

codedokode wrote: post #700
KiwiJohnno wrote: post #672

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is any of those things are effectively a reward for Russia for starting the war and invading Ukraine in the first place. Why should Russia get any advantage out of the war that they 100% started?? And pay them compensation! What a suggestion! Russia is a bully. What do you think will happen if we have to pay the bully off each time they start smashing up their neighbors stuff up or just making threats? An…

> NATO is a purely defensive organization Are nuclear missiles located in Europe and pointed to the East also "purely defensive" weapon? It doesn't help good relations when you have a gun pointed at your face.

Yes, they are exactly that. The only (current) working deterrence/defensive strategy against an attack from nuclear weapons is the threat of a nuclear reprisal.

This has stopped a war directly between the major powers for the last 70 years and is known as MAD - Mutually assured destruction.

Its not a situation which anybody is comfortable with, but it works.

Honestly, this is basic cold war history stuff. Your question above shows you are either completely naïve or you consume way too much Russian propaganda.

Re: U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

#758

Post by dlahoda »

walleeee wrote: post #365
beretguy wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is absolutely no talking to russia because russia will not respect any talks or agreements. Talking to russia will only buy time for russia to rearm and attack again. Here is the proof: "Zelensky sent Trump list of all 'ceasefires' violated by Russia" https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-gave-trump-list-of-all-... russia respects nothing except getting punched back. They will break every single agreement. No am…

Well-respected American leaders thought it wise and worthwhile to maintain backchannels with the USSR throughout the cold war. Presumably, then, the Soviets were a lesser threat, materially and ideologically, to the American project than Russia is today? Is that correct?

did ussr had agreement with usa and 3rd country not to attack that 3rd country?

ua(that 3rd country), us and ru had that.

Re: U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

#759

Post by mrguyorama »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #424
rsynnott wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps surprisingly, Europe has more nuclear weapons than China (France: 290 warheads, UK: 225 warheads, China: 500 warheads). China never really bought into the mutually assured destruction doctrine in the same way that the US and Soviet Union did.

I don’t think the Chinese have been sitting still for the last 10 years, and I doubt they will sit still for the next 10 years.

China invested heavily into hypersonic delivery vehicles instead of scale. They didn't want nuclear winter, they want to make sure that ANY attempt by the US to project power in "Their" waters evaporates in a plasma ball. They don't seem interested in nuking the US mainland.

Instead, their focus has been on building invasion barges so that they can take Taiwan. So that's exciting. Hope none of you like computer chips!

Re: U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

#760

Post by dlahoda »

walleeee wrote: post #365
beretguy wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is absolutely no talking to russia because russia will not respect any talks or agreements. Talking to russia will only buy time for russia to rearm and attack again. Here is the proof: "Zelensky sent Trump list of all 'ceasefires' violated by Russia" https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-gave-trump-list-of-all-... russia respects nothing except getting punched back. They will break every single agreement. No am…

Well-respected American leaders thought it wise and worthwhile to maintain backchannels with the USSR throughout the cold war. Presumably, then, the Soviets were a lesser threat, materially and ideologically, to the American project than Russia is today? Is that correct?

imagine usa attacked ua with its whole mil power, except nukes.

how many days would ua stand with all weapons provided by ru agains us?

in reverse, with limited weapon support, ua still here after 3 years.

may it indicate that ru is weaker of ussr and what applied to ussr does not apply to ru.

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