How the U.K. broke its own economy

Nuclear power has famously had negative learning by doing throughout its entire life.

There was a first large scale attempt at scaling nuclear power culminating 40 years ago. Nuclear power peaked at ~20% of the global electricity mix in the 1990s. It was all negative learning by doing.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03014...

Then we tried again 20 years ago. There was a massive subsidy push. The end result was Virgil C. Summer, Vogtle, Olkiluoto and Flamanville. We needed the known quantity of nuclear power since no one believed renewables would cut it.

How many trillions in subsidies should we spend to try one more time? All the while the competition in renewables are already delivering beyond our wildest imaginations.

China is barely investing in nuclear power. At their current buildout which have been averaging 5 construction starts per year since 2020 they will at saturation reach 2-3% total nuclear power in their electricity mix.

China is all in on renewables [1]() and [2] storage.

Then rounding of with some typical ”SMRs” nonsense!!!

SMRs have been complete vaporware for the past 70 years.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-forgotten-history-of-small-nuc...

Or just this recent summary on how all modern SMRs tend to show promising PowerPoints and then cancel when reality hits.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XECq9uFsy6o

Simply look to:

- mPower: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%26W_mPower

- NuScale: https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com/2024/10/29/the-rise-and-f...

And the rest of the bunch adding costs for every passing year and then disappearing when the subsidies run out.

[1]: https://reneweconomy.com.au/chinas-quiet-energy-revolution-t...

[2]: https://www.ess-news.com/2025/01/23/chinas-new-energy-storag...

> I have already given you all that but you keep dodging

No, you have not. The quotes you posted just list various storage systems and don't bother to set specific capacity requirements. I'll ask again:

How many TWh of battery storage are provisioned in your hypothetical 100% renewable world?

How many TWh of pumped hydro?

How many TWh of other storage? And what are these alternative storage systems?

The posts you link only talk about the cost of storage, but not the total capacity requirements. This is important, because 12 hours of storage for global electricity consumption is 30TWh. Only about 1 TWh of batteries are produced each year globally. So actually trying to provision grid scale storage would massively increase battery demand and drive up prices. This is the a reason why nobody wants to talk about the total capacity requirements for a primarily renewable grid.

The cost of nuclear is primarily from regulation/human decision making that prevents it from externalizing its costs onto the environment (decom costs, waste handling) not physics. Wind and solar are limited severely by physics and they are much more vulnerable to a changing climate. China eating its own dogfood with heavy investments in renewables is meaningful but only illuminates some of what is happening. A significant amount of this stuff is going into the ground in 25 years and it won't be handled with nearly the safety and care as waste streams from nuclear power.

Unfortunately 12 hours of storage is still going to be a shortfall, even with overproduction. Researchers analyze historical weather data and simulate how renewable grids would perform on that historical trends, measuring periods of underproduction. Even with 50% overproduction and 12 hours of storage, we're still looking at an unacceptably unreliable grid: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26355-z

> However lets say that it is 12 hours/30TWh. In 2023, the world produced ~1.1 TWH of batteries. In 2014, the world produced 0.05 TWH of batteries (with steady growth year over year while prices fell by 10x). If you give grid scale batteries a 5 year lifespan (before recycling), that means we need 6TWh/year of grid scale battery production, which at current rates of increase in battery production, we are 5-7 years away from.

Even ignoring the fact that 12 hours is insufficient, you're making the following assumptions:

1. The production of batteries will sextuple in the next 5-7 years.

2. 100% (or close to 100%) of battery production will be dedicated to grid storage.

3. Electricity consumption will remain static.

The first one may or may not pan out. Battery production is already bottlenecked by resource extraction, and it's unclear if the rate of extraction can keep up. The nature of extraction is that once easily accessible deposits are exhausted, companies shift to the harder-to-access deposits. This is only economically viable if cost increases enough to incentivize that investment. The HN crowd tends to assume that everything adheres to Moore's law, but that doesn't work in reality. The price of steel, for instance, doesn't exponentially decline.

The second two are certainly not true. EV are predicted to make up the vast majority of battery sales. Redirecting batteries to grid storage would necessitate delaying EV adoption, ultimately increasing emissions. Stationary storage accounts for a small fraction of battery production (https://rmi.org/the-rise-of-batteries-in-six-charts-and-not-...). Electric vehicles only account for a bit under 20% of vehicle sales worldwide. With many countries slated to stop sales of ICE vehicles in the next 5-10 years, we're still looking at most future battery production going to satisfy EV demand even if it grows to 6TWh per year as per your assumptions.

And electricity use will certainly increase. Both as poorer countries develop and start deploying air conditioning and other electricity consumption. And as other sources of primary energy consumption is shifted to electricity. Remember, electricity generation only makes up ~40% of total energy consumption. The remainder will have to be converted to electricity as part of full decarbonization.

It's too costly to build high speed rail in many parts of the world (California for instance). It's not because high speed rail isn't a viable solution, it's regulation.

The article you posted from sciencedirect supports this. The study points primarily to a changing complex regulation landscape as a primary driver of costs. Meanwhile, France is in an excellent position in the EU in terms of energy in large part because it stuck with nuclear instead of attempting unsuccessfully to transfer to wind and solar like some of it's neighbors (who now burn lignite to meet energy demands).

Solar panels, for instance, are mostly made in places where actual costs of construction are externalized to the environment and workers with depressed wages. Nuclear plants need to be built and decommissioned in the same place - places that are often actively hostile with complex regulation meant to curtail nuclear specifically for the sake of non-proliferation. SMRs help sidestep a portion of this hostile regulation but there are countless reactor designs that are possible that we can't even begin to explore until regulation is made reasonable.