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CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

nytimes.com

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Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#751

Post by tripletao »

lamontcg wrote: post #732
tripletao wrote: post #535

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the usual theory for SARS-1 is spillover from bats to other non-human animals outside Guangzhou. The virus was then brought to Guangzhou by wildlife traffickers, like in the live infected civet cats found in markets there. A similar conduit is possible for SARS-CoV-2, but we still haven't found that proximal host. I don't think spillover of SARS-1 from bats in Guangzhou is commonly proposed. If you've seen it…

You're not clarify anything I said or telling me anything I don't already know. The SARS-CoV-1 virus moved over 1000km from Yunnan to Guangzhou. The SARS-CoV-2 virus moved over 1000km from Yunnan to Wuhan. This is the same fucking problem. One way or another we know it has a solution that doesn't involve WIV due to the SARS-CoV-1 spillover. If we can explain SARS-CoV-1 without WIV then we can explain SARS-CoV-2 witho…

I'm aware that you already know everything I've written here. I agree that spillover from bats in Wuhan is not impossible (nature is big and mysterious), but your implication that proximity to such bats affected Dr. Shi's choice of working location just isn't correct. She can be wrong about a lot of things, but she can't be wrong about her own intentions.

I guess we're just endlessly arguing the same uncertain technicalities now. I miss the days when actual new information was becoming available, and appreciated the chance to discuss with someone informed with opposing views. It would be nice to confidently learn the truth someday. Perhaps the new administration will release something, but I think it's much more likely they'll just poison the topic politically even more.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#752

Post by rayiner »

tptacek wrote: post #738
rayiner wrote: post #737

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m arguing in good faith. The Iraq War was the biggest mistake in recent American history. Which is why the realignment of pro-Iraq War republicans to democrats—and democrats’ acceptance of them—is so shocking. Liz Cheney should be politically radioactive. Instead Biden gave her a medal. Harris campaigned with her. I think you may have the causation reversed. I voted for Biden in 2020. But the intelligence community…

You've been a proud Republican since you were a student, and openly so here. That's fine, of course, but it's odd to see you talking about "real" Democrats. Democrats broadly opposed the Republican party; whether or not the Republicans responsible for the Iraq War fled the party post-Trump, they do not characterize the Democratic party today. I really don't give a shit about how credible the US IC is; no part of my i…

I understand democrats have kicked all the social conservatives out of the party but I didn’t think it was retroactive! I was a registered Democrat until 2017. I went to Wingdings in Iowa in 2019 as a Tulsi Gabbard supporter.

Hawks are by no means the majority of democrats, but Romney 2012 types are the margin democrat voter. And while the majority of democrats aren’t hawks, the party’s dominant principle as of late seems to be trusting credentialed experts, which makes them suckers for the intelligence community.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#753

Post by Jerrrry »

maeil wrote: post #612
Fomite wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A few reasons, though as I note in another comment, I'm not an expert in spillover events, my area of interest kicks in about a week later. So there's a few: 1) People I trust are skeptical, including people who are opposed to gain of function research. I've found Angela Rasmussen to be one of the better voices in terms of discussing the evidence for a natural origin, but she's far from the only one. 2) We have had t…

> or because they've become addicted to being "the lone voice in the wilderness", despite it not being a risky position to take. This frankly makes me distrust you; in 2020-2022 this was absolutely a risky position to take for most public figures, let alone those on academia, let alone those connected to epidemiology. This remains the only time and topic I've seen blanket banned from discussing across all major US so…

Lol people were getting called racist for suggesting it was anything less than the spawn of a bat and an asian water racoon.

It still isn't even acceptable to acknowledge the (blatant) possibility that Omnicron was intentionally leaked because of low vaccine effectiveness.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#754

Post by Jerrrry »

lazyeye wrote: post #706
Fomite wrote: post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Basically, things like "It started in Wuhan near the WIV" implies that we actually have found the first case, etc., when this is notoriously difficult to do, especially with a disease that can have mild or asymptomatic presentation.

I believe these agencies may have other kinds of intelligence data such as satellite photos of the (empty?) Wuhan Institute of Virology carpark, spikes in mobile phone activity in the area etc. So assessments are made on more than just biological principles.

The hospital was full.

The institute would never be full.

There is no "bring your child to work day" in China.

Weird conflation, unlikely... uunless you mean to muddy the waters and sow dis-information.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#755

Post by ahartmetz »

llamaimperative wrote: post #692
ahartmetz wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GoF pro: might help in some case, to the best of our knowledge never did. (Some scientists like their deadly toys!) GoF contra: might cause a pandemic, kill millions, probably did. So, yeah, I don't know, tough decision.

All sorts of medicines are manufactured using GoF'd E. coli. We need a tighter definition of "bad" GoF.

I guess research along the lines of "What if this microorganism was more dangerous (infectious, resistant, damaging) - well, let's try that!"

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#756

Post by tptacek »

rayiner wrote: post #752
tptacek wrote: post #738

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've been a proud Republican since you were a student, and openly so here. That's fine, of course, but it's odd to see you talking about "real" Democrats. Democrats broadly opposed the Republican party; whether or not the Republicans responsible for the Iraq War fled the party post-Trump, they do not characterize the Democratic party today. I really don't give a shit about how credible the US IC is; no part of my i…

I understand democrats have kicked all the social conservatives out of the party but I didn’t think it was retroactive! I was a registered Democrat until 2017. I went to Wingdings in Iowa in 2019 as a Tulsi Gabbard supporter. Hawks are by no means the majority of democrats, but Romney 2012 types are the margin democrat voter. And while the majority of democrats aren’t hawks, the party’s dominant principle as of late…

Romney 2012 types are obviously not the marginal Democratic voter.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#757

Post by kasey_junk »

tptacek wrote: post #742
kasey_junk wrote: post #740

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, this year, used Cheney on the campaign trail. When Trump called her ‘war hawk’, rather than trying to defend that very legitimate condemnation, they attacked it as anti-woman. I think where I disagree with rayiner is that I believe she _was_ toxic. Her endorsement is certainly one of my grievances with the party, as a Democratic voter, and we saw the big tent collapse be…

Isn't this practically an American election tradition at this point? The designated Republican at the DNC, and Democrat at the RNC?

Yes. And they chose a war hawk instead of all the others they could have grabbed.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#758

Post by yndoendo »

rayiner wrote: post #752
tptacek wrote: post #738

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've been a proud Republican since you were a student, and openly so here. That's fine, of course, but it's odd to see you talking about "real" Democrats. Democrats broadly opposed the Republican party; whether or not the Republicans responsible for the Iraq War fled the party post-Trump, they do not characterize the Democratic party today. I really don't give a shit about how credible the US IC is; no part of my i…

I understand democrats have kicked all the social conservatives out of the party but I didn’t think it was retroactive! I was a registered Democrat until 2017. I went to Wingdings in Iowa in 2019 as a Tulsi Gabbard supporter. Hawks are by no means the majority of democrats, but Romney 2012 types are the margin democrat voter. And while the majority of democrats aren’t hawks, the party’s dominant principle as of late…

A truly intelligent person is independent and not attached to a political part. By doing so, this latches to the "Yes men" mentally where those in power are always right even when wrong and probable through the most simplistic means. [0] Polarization leads to stupidity and ignorance to real world statistics and out comes, even in medical treatment.

Self identifying with a political party erodes critical thinking skills. Unless you can criticize the stupidity of all, including those you vote for, you are limited by your own stupidity.

Self identity ignorance is prominent in religious cultures where the church must be protected. The congregation will protect a priest or pastor that is sexual predator and pretend their actions didn't take place to protect their community. They loose their identity when their church is harmed, same with latching to political parties.

[0] https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2216179120

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#759

Post by kasey_junk »

camgunz wrote: post #744
kasey_junk wrote: post #740

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, this year, used Cheney on the campaign trail. When Trump called her ‘war hawk’, rather than trying to defend that very legitimate condemnation, they attacked it as anti-woman. I think where I disagree with rayiner is that I believe she _was_ toxic. Her endorsement is certainly one of my grievances with the party, as a Democratic voter, and we saw the big tent collapse be…

Here's the full quote: "She is a radical war hawk. Let's put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, OK? Let's see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face." Trump has a (literal) record of advocating for and perpetrating violence against women and minorities. I don't know of any elected Dems who called it anti-woman (there's a trend of taking any Dem on X as…

No. That’s not the full quote. The full quote was minutes long and rambling. But you removed this for instance that was near that quote “You know they're all war hawks when they're sitting in Washington in a nice building saying, 'Oh, gee, let's send 10,000 troops right into the mouth of the enemy”.

Cheney comes from a family of chicken hawks and lots of people have had similar quotes about them.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#760

Post by tptacek »

kasey_junk wrote: post #757
tptacek wrote: post #742

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't this practically an American election tradition at this point? The designated Republican at the DNC, and Democrat at the RNC?

Yes. And they chose a war hawk instead of all the others they could have grabbed.

It seems to me they chose the highest-profile Republican who would serve the role.
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