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OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

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Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#751

Interesting that in the video, there is an admission that they have been targeting this benchmark. A comment that was quickly shut down by Sam. A bit puzzling to me. Why does it matter ?

It matters to extent that they want to market this as general intelligence, not as a collection of narrow intelligences (math, competitive programming, ARC puzzles, etc). In reality it seems to be a bit of both - there is some general intelligence based on having been "trained on the internet", but it seems these super-human math/etc skills are very much from them having focused on training on those.

However, the way it is progressing is that the SOTA is saturating the current benchmarks; then a new one is conceived as people understand the nature of what it means to be intelligent. It seems only natural to concentrate on one benchmark at a time.

Francois Chollet mentioned that the test tries to avoid curve fitting (which he states is the main ability of LLMs). However, they specifically restricted the number of examples to do this. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that many examples could have been generated by hand though, and that the curve fitting has been achieved, rather than discrete programming.

Anyway, it’s all supposition. It’s difficult to know how genuine the results is, without knowledge of how it was actually achieved.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#752

Can I just say what a dick move it was to do this as a 12 days of Christmas. I mean to be honest I agree with the arguments this isn’t as impressive as my initial impression, but they clearly intended it to be shocking/a show of possible AGI, which is rightly scary. It feels so insensitive to that right before a major holiday when the likely outcome is a lot of people feeling less secure in their career/job/life. Tha…

Or maybe the target audience that watches 12 launch videos in the morning are genuninely excited about the new model. The intended it to be a preview of something to look forward to. What a weird way to react to this.

It sounds like you aren't thinking about this that deeply then. Or at least not understanding that many smart (and financially disinterested) people who are, are coming to concerning conclusions.

https://www.transformernews.ai/p/richard-ngo-openai-resign-s...

>But while the “making AGI” part of the mission seems well on track, it feels like I (and others) have gradually realized how much harder it is to contribute in a robustly positive way to the “succeeding” part of the mission, especially when it comes to preventing existential risks to humanity.

Almost every single one of the people OpenAI had hired to work on AI safety have left the firm with similar messages. Perhaps you should at least consider the thinking of experts?

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#753

Can I just say what a dick move it was to do this as a 12 days of Christmas. I mean to be honest I agree with the arguments this isn’t as impressive as my initial impression, but they clearly intended it to be shocking/a show of possible AGI, which is rightly scary. It feels so insensitive to that right before a major holiday when the likely outcome is a lot of people feeling less secure in their career/job/life. Tha…

Wtf is wrong with you dude? It's just another tech, some jobs will get worse some jobs will get better. Happens every couple of decades. Stop freaking out.

This is not a very kind or humble comment. There are real experts talking about how this time is different -- as an analogy, think about how horses, for thousands of years, always had new things to do -- until one day they didn't. It's hubris to think that we're somehow so different from them.

Notably, the last key AI safety researcher just left OpenAI: https://www.transformernews.ai/p/richard-ngo-openai-resign-s...

>But while the “making AGI” part of the mission seems well on track, it feels like I (and others) have gradually realized how much harder it is to contribute in a robustly positive way to the “succeeding” part of the mission, especially when it comes to preventing existential risks to humanity.

Are you that upset that this guy chose to trust the people that OpenAI hired to talk about AI safety, on the topic of AI safety?

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#754

It sucks that I would love to be excited about this... but I mostly feel anxiety and sadness.

Anxiety and sadness are actually mild emotional responses to the dissolution of human culture. Nick Land in 1992: "It is ceasing to be a matter of how we think about technics, if only because technics is increasingly thinking about itself. It might still be a few decades before artificial intelligences surpass the horizon of biological ones, but it is utterly superstitious to imagine that the human dominion of terres…

It's obvious that there are lines of flight (to take a Deleuzian tack, a la Land) away from the current political-economic assemblage. For example, a strategic nuclear exchange starting tomorrow (which can always happen -- technical errors, a rogue submarine, etc.) would almost certainly set back technological development enough that we'd have no shot at AI for the next few decades. I don't know whether you agree with him, but I think the fact that he ignores this fact is quite unserious, especially given the likely destabilizing effects sub-AGI AI will have on international politics.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#755

It sucks that I would love to be excited about this... but I mostly feel anxiety and sadness.

Humanity is about to enter an even steeper hockey stick growth curve. Progressing along the Kardashev scale feels all but inevitable. We will live to see Longevity Escape Velocity. I'm fucking pumped and feel thrilled and excited and proud of our species. Sure, there will be growing pains, friction, etc. Who cares? There always is with world-changing tech. Always.

https://www.transformernews.ai/p/richard-ngo-openai-resign-s...

>But while the “making AGI” part of the mission seems well on track, it feels like I (and others) have gradually realized how much harder it is to contribute in a robustly positive way to the “succeeding” part of the mission, especially when it comes to preventing existential risks to humanity.

Almost every single one of the people OpenAI had hired to work on AI safety have left the firm with similar messages. Perhaps you should at least consider the thinking of experts?

You and I will likely not live to see much of anything past AGI.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#756

Can I just say what a dick move it was to do this as a 12 days of Christmas. I mean to be honest I agree with the arguments this isn’t as impressive as my initial impression, but they clearly intended it to be shocking/a show of possible AGI, which is rightly scary. It feels so insensitive to that right before a major holiday when the likely outcome is a lot of people feeling less secure in their career/job/life. Tha…

This is a you problem. Yes there will be pain in short term, but it will be worth it in long term. Many of us look forward to what a future with AGI can do to help humanity and hopefully change society for the better, mainly to achieve a post scarcity economy.

https://www.transformernews.ai/p/richard-ngo-openai-resign-s...

>But while the “making AGI” part of the mission seems well on track, it feels like I (and others) have gradually realized how much harder it is to contribute in a robustly positive way to the “succeeding” part of the mission, especially when it comes to preventing existential risks to humanity.

Almost every single one of the people OpenAI had hired to work on AI safety have left the firm with similar messages. Perhaps you should at least consider the thinking of experts? There is a real chance that this ends with significant good. There is also a real chance that this ends with the death of every single human being. That's never been a choice we've had to make before, and it seems like we as a species are unprepared to approach it.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#757

Can I just say what a dick move it was to do this as a 12 days of Christmas. I mean to be honest I agree with the arguments this isn’t as impressive as my initial impression, but they clearly intended it to be shocking/a show of possible AGI, which is rightly scary. It feels so insensitive to that right before a major holiday when the likely outcome is a lot of people feeling less secure in their career/job/life. Tha…

I feel you. It's tough trying to think about what we can do to avert this; even to the extent that individuals are often powerless, in this regard it feels worse than almost anything that's come before.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#758
post #73

Great results. However, let's all just admit it. It has well replaced journalists, artists and on its way to replace nearly both junior and senior engineers. The ultimate intention of "AGI" is that it is going to replace tens of millions of jobs. That is it and you know it. It will only accelerate and we need to stop pretending and coping. Instead lets discuss solutions for those lost jobs. So what is the replacement…

The economic theory answer is that people simply switch to jobs that are not yet replaceable by AI. Doctors, nurses, electricians, construction workers, police officers, etc. People in aggregate will produce more, consume more and work less.

> Doctors

Many replaceable

> Police officers

Many replaceable (desk officers)

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#759

Can I just say what a dick move it was to do this as a 12 days of Christmas. I mean to be honest I agree with the arguments this isn’t as impressive as my initial impression, but they clearly intended it to be shocking/a show of possible AGI, which is rightly scary. It feels so insensitive to that right before a major holiday when the likely outcome is a lot of people feeling less secure in their career/job/life. Tha…

There is no AGI it’s just marketing, this stuff if over hyped, enjoy your holidays you won’t lose your job ;)

I agree, it’s just more about the intent than anything else, like boasting about your amazing new job when someone has recently been made redundant, just before Christmas.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#760
Moreover, ARC-AGI-1 is now saturating – besides o3's new score, the fact is that a large ensemble of low-compute Kaggle solutions can now score 81% on the private eval.

If low-compute Kaggle solutions already does 81% - then why is o3's 75.7% considered such a breakthrough?

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