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Artificial intelligence is losing hype

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Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#751

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think you’ve used LLMs enough. They are revolutionary, every day. As a coder I’m several times more productive than I was before, especially when trying to learn some new library or language.

They are revolutionary for use cases where hallucinated / wrong / unreliable output is easy and cheap to detect & fix, and where there's enough training data. That's why it fits programming so well - if you get bad code, you just throw it away, or modify it until it works. That's why it work for generic stock images too - if you get bad image, you modify the prompt, generate another one and see if it's better. But ma…

To me those usecases are already revolutionary. And human in the loop doesn't mean it is not revolutionary. I see it multiplying human productivity rather than as immediate replacement. And it can take some time before it is properly iterated and integrated everywhere in a seamless manner.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#752

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think you’ve used LLMs enough. They are revolutionary, every day. As a coder I’m several times more productive than I was before, especially when trying to learn some new library or language.

They are revolutionary for use cases where hallucinated / wrong / unreliable output is easy and cheap to detect & fix, and where there's enough training data. That's why it fits programming so well - if you get bad code, you just throw it away, or modify it until it works. That's why it work for generic stock images too - if you get bad image, you modify the prompt, generate another one and see if it's better. But ma…

If you adjust your standard to the level of human performance in most roles, including nursing, you’ll find that AI is reasonably similar to most people in that in makes errors, sometimes convincing ones, and that recovering from those errors is something all social/org systems must do & don’t always get right.

Human in the loop can add reliability, but the most common use cases I’m seeing with AI are helping people see the errors they are making/their lack of sufficient effort to solve the problem.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#753

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used it for some troubleshooting in my job. Linux Sys Admin. I like how I can just ask it a question and explain the situation and it goes thru everything with me, like a Person.

> Certainly, yes. To initialize the IPv6 subsystem, enter 'init 6' in an elevated system terminal.

Whoops.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#754

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right. And that's why I wonder how a developer can claim to get a 300% increase in productivity from AI results.

300% is a massive underestimate for someone who is AI native and understands how to prompt and interpret results correctly. In the past I would spend 30-40 minutes hunting around on StackOverflow to get the syntax of a difficult database query or bust out a long regular expression. With AI I can do the same in 15 seconds. We’re talking a 120x increase in productivity not a 3x improvement.

Do you spend 100% of your time on such tasks? If not, then Amdahl wants a word with you about your overall productivity gains.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#755
post #15

To be honest, I was surprised by ChatGPT. I didn’t think we were close. We are running out of textual data now to train on… so now they have switched to VIDEO. Geez now they can train on all the VIDEOS on the internet. And when they finally get bots working, they will have limitless streams of TACTILE data… Writing it off as the next fad seems fun. But to be honest, I was shocked by what openai did the first time. So…

> Seriously I am a 2x coder compared to what I was because of this. Isn't the energy consumption of this technology pretty catastrophic? Do you consider the issue of energy consumption so abstracted you don't worry about it? Do you do anything to offset your increased carbon emissions?

Offsetting carbon emissions - what does it even mean? There is no feasible way to remove carbon from the athmosphere as far as I know. Would you care to explain what you mean by that?

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#756
post #571

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"no no, it's not that the technology has reached it's current limits and these companies are bleeding money, they're just withholding their newest releases not to spook the normies!"

Here's an experiment you can try, go to https://www.udio.com/home and grab a free account which comes with more than enough credits to do this. Use a free chat LLM like Claude 3.5 Sonnet or ChatGPT 4o to workshop some lyrics that you like, just try a few generations and ask it to rewrite parts you don't like until you have something that you don't find too cringe. Then go back over to Udio, go to the create tab turn…

I wrote a song for my girlfriend this way. It turned out pretty nice. A bit quirky is not necessarily a bad thing when making personalized content. Took me a couple of hours to get it to my liking, including learning all the tools and the workflow for the first time. And fixing up a couple of mispronunciations of her nickname using inpainting. Overall a very productive environment, and will probably try to make some more songs - an replace the vocals with my own using the stems feature.

I have some audio engineering skills, dabbled in songwriting, guitar and singng when I was younger, but actually never completed a full song. So it is quite transformative from that perspective!

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#757

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's an experiment you can try, go to https://www.udio.com/home and grab a free account which comes with more than enough credits to do this. Use a free chat LLM like Claude 3.5 Sonnet or ChatGPT 4o to workshop some lyrics that you like, just try a few generations and ask it to rewrite parts you don't like until you have something that you don't find too cringe. Then go back over to Udio, go to the create tab turn…

I've tried Udio when it appeared, and, while it is spectacularly fascinating from the technical perspective, and can even generate songs that "sound" OK, it is still as cringe as cringe can be. Do you have an example of any song that gained any traction among human audience? Not a Billboard hit, just something that people outside the techbubble accepted as a good song?

I think the frontpage/recommended on Udio and Suno both have some decent music these days. By decent I mean on the level one could expect from say browsing music on say YouTube in areas one is not familiar with. There is of course a lot of meme/joke content, but also some pleasant/interesting sounding songs.

The really good stuff probably will not be marked as med with AI - and probably will also go via a DAW and proper mastering.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#758
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HJ is Homeless Joe, an inference that a 12b stochastic text generator would not have missed lol. But sure, ill reflect in 10 years. TBH I hope im wrong, and that there is magic in HJ that makes him special in the universe in a way that GPT26 can never be. But increasingly, I doubt this premise. Not because of the "amazing capabilities of LLMs" which i think are frequently overstated and largely misunderstood, but mor…

> Not because of the "amazing capabilities of LLMs" which i think are frequently overstated and largely misunderstood We have found common ground. > but more because of the dumbfounding shortcomings of intelligent creatures Yes, a lot of us utilize defective judgments, myself included, fairly often. My point was that LLMs, for all their praise, can't even reach 10% of an average semi-intelligent organic being. > We k…

As a person that has been futzing with "AI" since early expert systems, I can give a little bit of background on the evolution of the term of art 'artificial general intelligence' Back in the days of lisp machines and expert systems, we started playing with early neural networks in an attempt to advance towards 'general intelligence' rather than the highly constrained talents of expert systems.

At that time, general intelligence was imagined like what a mouse, dog, or cat has, in varying degrees. (it was then broadly thought that insects and other "simple" organisms worked from instinct and conditioning only) So intelligence was broadly imagined to be the ability to reason through an arbitrary problem with a combination of insight and trial and error. It had nothing at all to do with reaching human levels of competence.

Gradually, the bar for AGI has slipped skyward to assume human level competence. I think that part of that was because we actually started checking boxes for tasks that were thought to represent "true" AI....

...But then we recognized that nope, it is not yet generally intelligent, it can just easily and accurately do (X task which was thought to require intelligence but really was only pattern matching or stochastic prediction). So, we raise the bar above task X and trivialize it as being less important than we thought.

Meanwhile, -nearly every task- that we thought would represent "true intelligence" has fallen not to some magic AI algorithm, but rather to stochastic models like transformers, pattern matching, or straightforward computation. With no reason to expect otherwise, I expect this trend to continue unabated.

So, what I'm saying is I have come to doubt that there is some secret sauce in "intelligence", but instead believe that "intelligence" is a blend of competencies enabled in animals by specialization of neural computational structures, "REPL" loops, goal seeking behaviors, and other tidbits which will be more of a slog than a eureka. I don't think that LLM's will create human-level intelligence on their own, but I do think that they will be an important component.

I also think that surprisingly, transformers all by them selves exhibit a flaky variety of general intelligence, and they are proving effective in robotic applications (though without a supervisory agent I suspect they will frequently go off the rails, so to speak.)

My original point was more that we expect machine general intelligence to be spectacularly useful. It may be, someday, but it is a kind of fallacy to think that "its not that useful therefore it must not really be intelligence".

Small animals also have limited utility, but with given names, language, tool use, and problem solving skills I think arguing that they do not exhibit "intelligence" would be a tough sell for me.

By my observation, we have made giant leaps in the past 15 years, and we now have perhaps the vast majority of the components required to make artificial general intelligence...but it won't necessarily be all that useful at first, except maybe as a "pet robot" or something like that. Even if we scale it, it might not magically get smarter, just faster. a million hyper-speed squirrels still has a very limited level of utility.

From there, we will incrementally improve if we don't stumble too hard over ourselves on any number of pressing obstacles that we currently face, until we finally succeed in doing what we were apparently born to do - to construct the means of our own irrelevance. Evolution at work, I suppose.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#759

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's an experiment you can try, go to https://www.udio.com/home and grab a free account which comes with more than enough credits to do this. Use a free chat LLM like Claude 3.5 Sonnet or ChatGPT 4o to workshop some lyrics that you like, just try a few generations and ask it to rewrite parts you don't like until you have something that you don't find too cringe. Then go back over to Udio, go to the create tab turn…

I wrote a song for my girlfriend this way. It turned out pretty nice. A bit quirky is not necessarily a bad thing when making personalized content. Took me a couple of hours to get it to my liking, including learning all the tools and the workflow for the first time. And fixing up a couple of mispronunciations of her nickname using inpainting. Overall a very productive environment, and will probably try to make some…

That's great to hear! It's uses like this that really make Udio and other tools shine. Even just making up silly songs about things that happen in your life is fun or doing them as a gift like you did is always nice. It's also great to have the option to add music to other projects.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#760
post #609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

is there no documentation about that uc and LCD controller? I'd assume they've been trained on every html, pdf, and video tutorial out there, as well as the pdfs of all of those chip's datasheets, and example microcontroller C code out there in the form of vendor documentation. sure that's maybe less than the amount of html web app tutorials but if we assume it's been fed all of the vendor's documentation about an uc…

You don't learn how to program SPI from reading documentation about an LCD controller. You need a lot more context and understand how to string together basic operations, which are quite often not detailed in parts documentation. I think that you have a serious misunderstanding of the capabilities of LLMs - they cannot reason out relationships among documents that easily. They cannot even tell you what they don't kno…

you keep making these claims that it's harder than it appears but have yet to back them up. I'd be more than happy to update my understanding of the capabilities of these things if you can actually show me limitations of the technology. until then, just saying SPI is harder than that, when I've written the code for a microcontroller to interface to an LCD, at the advent of Google, (so before stack overflow and ChatGPT), and so I deeply know the frustrations of board bring up, doesn't convince me that it's it's my understanding that's wrong, but yours.
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