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Why it’s hard to buy deodorant in Manhattan

economist.com

751–760 of 763 posts

Re: Why it’s hard to buy deodorant in Manhattan

#751

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That sounds insightful but it is wrong - Vancouver BC lost 3500 people on its streets last year. But there's no reason to put people in expensive and dangerous prisons when minimum security facilities will do. When you're drying people out and have the only supply around for 50km they aren't going to leave.

It could be wrong, I have no idea from a statistical prospective. You would have to analyze the people who are arrested and figure out what are the mortality rates in those narrow demographics, which is not my field. We can assume maybe 20 people will die on Riker's this year[0] our of ~5865[1], so it's not a low rate. I am mostly motivated to counter the "people better off in jail" narrative, which is horrible and p…

> Rikers: 20 deaths/y from ~5865 population

Vancouver: ~2500 deaths/y from ~25k population of injection drug users

> I am mostly motivated to counter the "people better off in jail" narrative, which is horrible and pernicious

And yet correct.

> your hypothetical minimum security facility does not exist in NYC and is not going to be built

Why would it have to be in the city?

> so we are dealing with Riker's

Still better than the street.

Re: Why it’s hard to buy deodorant in Manhattan

#752

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to think that prison time somehow rehabilitates people, but data simply doesn't back you up on that. People are categorically worse off and more likely to commit more serious crimes after being imprisoned. If we want to lower crime, we need to address the source of the crime, and that's primarily poverty. There's plenty of research that shows strong correlation. Law & order approaches have historically been…

> You seem to think that prison time somehow rehabilitates people, but data simply doesn't back you up on that. That's a cop out even if it was true. "We can't put them in jail [so you have to suffer the break-ins and violence]". If you can't help then step back and let people who either can or are at least still willing to try. Portugal imprisons, and has great results, but it imprisons you in a rehab program and do…

> "We can't put them in jail [so you have to suffer the break-ins and violence]"

Break-ins and violence aren't petty theft. Break-ins are a form a violence, as well. Prison is a reasonable thing to use to isolate violent people. It would be ideal if rehabilitation was what was happening during that isolation, of course.

> it imprisons you in a rehab program and doesn't give criminal records from the drug-use portion of your charges

This doesn't happen in the US. In the US, if you're imprisoned, your life will be worse afterwards, not better. You will be poorer, you won't be able to get most jobs, and you won't be able to rent most apartments. You'll also be released on parole, and will have a constantly disrupted schedule that further limits you.

I'd love to also see prison reform in the US, but it's a separate topic. Even with prison reform, it's better if people don't go to prison to begin with. In the best case, if you go to prison, you're going to lose your job, and you're very likely going to lose your home.

> Please consider the actual victims here.

For petty theft, the victim is the business, which in the vast majority of cases is a large corporation, who has leakage built into their numbers.

Stop conflating petty theft with violent crime.

> Once citizens are safe on the streets

They are. Cities in the US are the safest they've ever been. These reports about massive crime waves are simply lies supported by idiotic statistics. Yes, crime is some categories is up 100-200%, but that's because the actual crime numbers are so low now that minor changes in the numbers looks like huge percentage shifts.

If the stock market dropped 90%, then went up 200%, would you be celebrating the 200%?

> Recognize more crime and punish more criminals to make things better for everyone

The point isn't to punish more crime, it's to punish the right crimes to move the needle. Poor people having their wages stolen makes them poorer. Poverty is strongly associated with crime (especially violent crime).

Same reason to encourage unions, increase minimum wage, have better social programs, provide free childcare, provide free education, provide public health insurance. When people have their needs covered, they're less likely to commit crimes for money.

Re: Why it’s hard to buy deodorant in Manhattan

#753

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You seem to think that prison time somehow rehabilitates people, but data simply doesn't back you up on that. That's a cop out even if it was true. "We can't put them in jail [so you have to suffer the break-ins and violence]". If you can't help then step back and let people who either can or are at least still willing to try. Portugal imprisons, and has great results, but it imprisons you in a rehab program and do…

> "We can't put them in jail [so you have to suffer the break-ins and violence]" Break-ins and violence aren't petty theft. Break-ins are a form a violence, as well. Prison is a reasonable thing to use to isolate violent people. It would be ideal if rehabilitation was what was happening during that isolation, of course. > it imprisons you in a rehab program and doesn't give criminal records from the drug-use portion…

> Stop conflating petty theft with violent crime.

Stop condoning violent crime just because it starts as something petty.

It's not just that these people are stealing in "shoplifting gangs" it's that they easily resort to violence when blocked.

> It would be ideal if rehabilitation was what was happening during that isolation, of course. [...] I'd love to also see prison reform in the US, but it's a separate topic.

If you say so. This seems like a perfect time to fix prisons so that you could better use them.

> For petty theft, the victim is the business, which in the vast majority of cases is a large corporation, who has leakage built into their numbers.

That's a commie answer. Corporations are made of people, and owned by people.

If I robbed your house enough you'd eventually budget for it, at which point I could defend myself by saying "See, it's built into his monthly expenses!"

> If the stock market dropped 90%, then went up 200%, would you be celebrating the 200%?

Yes.

> Cities in the US are the safest they've ever been

Less safe than last year, for a few years now. Yes, it's smaller than all past gains but why are we slipping backward at all?

> The point isn't to punish more crime, it's to punish the right crimes to move the needle.

I'm not about the absolute numbers but the percentages. I wish there was less crime to punish, but of the more damaging types the problem is definitely that we aren't punishing enough. And yes, that totally includes economic crimes that make the everyday people poorer.

> Same reason to encourage unions, increase minimum wage, have better social programs, provide free childcare, provide free education, provide public health insurance. When people have their needs covered, they're less likely to commit crimes for money.

What a depressingly bad set of social policies but what a great demonstration of why we're in trouble.

Unions were a good idea when workers were dying, a little light crying isn't an issue. Minimum wage increases produce inflation not real wealth. Social programs are what's destroying many cities - specifically Vancouver, Seattle, SF. Free childcare is backwards compared to helping mothers work less in the first place and hurts the quality providers in the market. Insurance that everyone has isn't insurance, it's a poorly run buying program - mandate open drug pricing and help small providers buy at scale to achieve savings.

> When people have their needs covered, they're less likely to commit crimes for money.

Help make the economy better so they can afford to. Safety for people and property is essential.

Re: Why it’s hard to buy deodorant in Manhattan

#754
post #748

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> These corporations that are being robbed already build shrinkage into their budgets. Doesn't this just mean that it is priced in? So thiefs are stealing from paying customers.

Pretty sure it's meant as "they're pricing in a (low single-digit) percentage of theft" and not "every week someone grabs 90% of the deodorant".

So it's somehow OK to steal $0.01 each from 1000 people.

Re: Why it’s hard to buy deodorant in Manhattan

#755

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It could be wrong, I have no idea from a statistical prospective. You would have to analyze the people who are arrested and figure out what are the mortality rates in those narrow demographics, which is not my field. We can assume maybe 20 people will die on Riker's this year[0] our of ~5865[1], so it's not a low rate. I am mostly motivated to counter the "people better off in jail" narrative, which is horrible and p…

> Rikers: 20 deaths/y from ~5865 population Vancouver: ~2500 deaths/y from ~25k population of injection drug users > I am mostly motivated to counter the "people better off in jail" narrative, which is horrible and pernicious And yet correct. > your hypothetical minimum security facility does not exist in NYC and is not going to be built Why would it have to be in the city? > so we are dealing with Riker's Still bett…

Prison is not permanent housing. Moving someone from the street, to prison, then back to the street, takes away a lot of the resources that they may have been using to keep themselves alive. Temporary shelter may be gone. Connections to people who can help them may be gone.

If someone dies on the street as a result of imprisonment, they're counted as a street death, but they're really a prison death.

Re: Why it’s hard to buy deodorant in Manhattan

#756

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Rikers: 20 deaths/y from ~5865 population Vancouver: ~2500 deaths/y from ~25k population of injection drug users > I am mostly motivated to counter the "people better off in jail" narrative, which is horrible and pernicious And yet correct. > your hypothetical minimum security facility does not exist in NYC and is not going to be built Why would it have to be in the city? > so we are dealing with Riker's Still bett…

Prison is not permanent housing. Moving someone from the street, to prison, then back to the street, takes away a lot of the resources that they may have been using to keep themselves alive. Temporary shelter may be gone. Connections to people who can help them may be gone. If someone dies on the street as a result of imprisonment, they're counted as a street death, but they're really a prison death.

> Prison is not permanent housing.

The goalposts were fine where they were, that prison can be and in these cases is a better alternative to leaving people on the street.

> a lot of the resources that they may have been using to keep themselves alive

They are dying in an open air drug encampment. Any resources they had were sold for drugs in the first few days.

> Temporary shelter may be gone.

They're probably under a tarp, but maybe they had a place at one of the indoor drug encampments. None of these are the slightest help, and to go back to any previous shelter is death.

> Connections to people who can help them may be gone.

Any people you knew while living in a drug encampment are toxic or worthless at best. Any "help" you were getting at the time is the type that kept you there.

> If someone dies on the street as a result of imprisonment, they're counted as a street death, but they're really a prison death.

Your analysis ignores the people who get better as a result of a criminal-sanction enforced dry-out and that a significant number (25% maybe) of street users who don't make it into prison (it's a good thing in this context) will die on the street each year.

Yes, minimum security is better than maximum and non-criminal rehab better again, but you said it won't be built so it's good for you to know that even Riker's Island is better than leaving junkies on the street - for the junkie!

Re: Why it’s hard to buy deodorant in Manhattan

#757

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "We can't put them in jail [so you have to suffer the break-ins and violence]" Break-ins and violence aren't petty theft. Break-ins are a form a violence, as well. Prison is a reasonable thing to use to isolate violent people. It would be ideal if rehabilitation was what was happening during that isolation, of course. > it imprisons you in a rehab program and doesn't give criminal records from the drug-use portion…

> Stop conflating petty theft with violent crime. Stop condoning violent crime just because it starts as something petty. It's not just that these people are stealing in "shoplifting gangs" it's that they easily resort to violence when blocked. > It would be ideal if rehabilitation was what was happening during that isolation, of course. [...] I'd love to also see prison reform in the US, but it's a separate topic. I…

> stealing in "shoplifting gangs"

This isn't petty theft. Petty theft is an individual shoplifting, for instance.

> That's a commie answer.

No, that's a capitalist answer. You're comically giving the communist answer, that a business is a collection of people, and that hurting it hurts them all.

Shoplifting is bad for society as a whole, but (usually) doesn't directly hurt individuals.

>> If the stock market dropped 90%, then went up 200%, would you be celebrating the 200%? > Yes.

So you don't understand math...

> Less safe than last year, for a few years now. Yes, it's smaller than all past gains but why are we slipping backward at all?

Because that's normal. The decrease in crime over the past 50 years hasn't been continuous. It's been a more natural ebb and flow. I don't see a year or two of very slightly higher crime as a trend up.

> Unions were a good idea when workers were dying, a little light crying isn't an issue. Minimum wage increases produce inflation not real wealth. Social programs are what's destroying many cities - specifically Vancouver, Seattle, SF.

All of these cities have lower crime rates than republican lead cities. All of them have drastically lower violent crime rates.

> Free childcare is backwards compared to helping mothers work less in the first place and hurts the quality providers in the market.

What about single mothers? What about mothers in 2 income families, where they can't afford losing an income? What do you actually propose to make it easier for mothers to work less? Apparently higher wages aren't appropriate, and free school to help them get higher paying jobs isn't appropriate.

> Insurance that everyone has isn't insurance, it's a poorly run buying program - mandate open drug pricing and help small providers buy at scale to achieve savings.

Essentially every other country on earth proves this to be wrong. The US has the highest medical costs, and plenty of other countries have a life expectancy that keeps rising, while ours is falling.

> Help make the economy better so they can afford to. Safety for people and property is essential.

The US economy has been stronger than most countries for effectively my entire life, and that hasn't eliminated poverty or crime. Other countries have enacted good social programs and have virtually eliminated crime.

Re: Why it’s hard to buy deodorant in Manhattan

#758

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Stop conflating petty theft with violent crime. Stop condoning violent crime just because it starts as something petty. It's not just that these people are stealing in "shoplifting gangs" it's that they easily resort to violence when blocked. > It would be ideal if rehabilitation was what was happening during that isolation, of course. [...] I'd love to also see prison reform in the US, but it's a separate topic. I…

> stealing in "shoplifting gangs" This isn't petty theft. Petty theft is an individual shoplifting, for instance. > That's a commie answer. No, that's a capitalist answer. You're comically giving the communist answer, that a business is a collection of people, and that hurting it hurts them all. Shoplifting is bad for society as a whole, but (usually) doesn't directly hurt individuals. >> If the stock market dropped…

> This isn't petty theft. Petty theft is an individual shoplifting, for instance.

If any are ever caught they get treated as individual shoplifters. Magically the crime statistics never show gang shoplifting.

> You're comically giving the communist answer, that a business is a collection of people, and that hurting it hurts them all.

The communist answer is that it isn't theft because of how you categorize those you inflict it on.

> Shoplifting is bad for society as a whole, but (usually) doesn't directly hurt individuals.

Of course not, you said the word 'directly'. All crimes against public companies are guilt free by definition comrade.

> Because that's normal. The decrease in crime over the past 50 years hasn't been continuous. It's been a more natural ebb and flow. I don't see a year or two of very slightly higher crime as a trend up.

You're missing the difference between reading history and experiencing the events in real time. Yes, we can probably count on things getting better in generational time, but now as things are getting worse we should look at our policies and try to figure it out rather than just waiting decades for things to clear up on their own.

> All of these cities have lower crime rates than republican lead cities. All of them have drastically lower violent crime rates.

Only if you ignore the crime of open drug use, and that it kills thousands per year. The only thing you can trust from these cities is that they're dishonest about their stats. If police don't answer a call did a crime really happen?

> What do you actually propose to make it easier for mothers to work less? Apparently higher wages aren't appropriate, and free school to help them get higher paying jobs isn't appropriate.

Higher wages are because of promotions are good, higher wages for the same job simply by government mandate doesn't provide higher purchasing power after inflation. And free school leads to the nonsense we have now with subsidized loans where a critical-studies degree costs $250k.

> Essentially every other country on earth proves this to be wrong. The US has the highest medical costs, and plenty of other countries have a life expectancy that keeps rising, while ours is falling.

Of course the costs are higher in the USA because it's the only country where you pay the actual cost. In every other country it's hidden in taxes to some degree, usually a lot, if it's available at all.

> The US economy has been stronger than most countries for effectively my entire life, and that hasn't eliminated poverty or crime.

It kinda has though. Our poorest are richer than the median in many countries. In cash dollars and in purchasing power. There are structural problems keeping many people in poverty and not purely distribution problems.

Crime on the other hand is more of a social thing than a poverty thing.

> Other countries have enacted good social programs and have virtually eliminated crime.

You know what's a good social program? Building a place to put druggies before thousands of them die on the street in the middle of a city.

Re: Why it’s hard to buy deodorant in Manhattan

#759

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why don't you think shoplifting is violence? Because you don't believe people have a right to property or because it is theft from a company?

Because the news doesn't report the truth. You have to watch youtube videos of the thefts to see the violence. Even then, the most egregious videos seem to be vanishing as if they're being reported. Most of these people have no idea because the news tells them it's a made-up MAGA issue or something. And the violence is never punishable if you're a "victim". A guard who trips a thief will be charged, no question, but…

Sure, negative societal costs are true of embezzlement, stock fraud, and wage theft as well. I wouldn't describe those crimes as violent either, unless by chance a separate act of violence was perpetrated in their commission. And, even though they are generally on an orders-of-magnitude higher cost scale than garden variety shoplifting, we don't normally describe embezzlers and other white collar criminals using dog whistle words like "thugs" either.

Re: Why it’s hard to buy deodorant in Manhattan

#760

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the news doesn't report the truth. You have to watch youtube videos of the thefts to see the violence. Even then, the most egregious videos seem to be vanishing as if they're being reported. Most of these people have no idea because the news tells them it's a made-up MAGA issue or something. And the violence is never punishable if you're a "victim". A guard who trips a thief will be charged, no question, but…

Sure, negative societal costs are true of embezzlement, stock fraud, and wage theft as well. I wouldn't describe those crimes as violent either, unless by chance a separate act of violence was perpetrated in their commission. And, even though they are generally on an orders-of-magnitude higher cost scale than garden variety shoplifting, we don't normally describe embezzlers and other white collar criminals using dog…

If I took all your money, computers, etc you wouldn't consider that to be a violent action?
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