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What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

reuters.com

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Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#751

Post by ashwagary »

cguess wrote: post #626
ashwagary wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen reports that Russia's only deployed 5-10% of their forces. This might be a slow steady escalation to allow evacuations of civilians and test the endurance of battalion forces. Any victories for Ukrainian forces may be short lived, as Russia seems to be using this opportunity to guage hot and cold zones.

82% of all staged forces as of this morning according the US DOD.

Unfortunately, the massive propaganda campaign may extend into the DOD's public narrative. It did with the Iraq and Syrian wars.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#752

Post by raducu »

sharikous wrote: post #557
raducu wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have no idea about the darkness and effectiveness of modern tyranny. Russia is pretty much North Korea in democracy at this point or they will become so very soon. Putin wants the sanctions to be over. His next move will be to create devastation in Ukraine and hold civilians as hostages for the lifting of the sanctions. In anycase, Russia will controll South of Ukraine, link up with Transnistria and even if they…

That's insightful and cynic. Possibly right too. But why "modern tyranny"? Wars like that are not a novelty... or is it about taking civilians as hostages?

Because with modern technology oppression is a lot more efficient than before. Not says that it was not in thr past.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#753

Post by raducu »

Mirioron wrote: post #623
raducu wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have no idea about the darkness and effectiveness of modern tyranny. Russia is pretty much North Korea in democracy at this point or they will become so very soon. Putin wants the sanctions to be over. His next move will be to create devastation in Ukraine and hold civilians as hostages for the lifting of the sanctions. In anycase, Russia will controll South of Ukraine, link up with Transnistria and even if they…

If Russia manages to occupy Ukraine through repressions then wouldn't this invite Chechnya 2.0, but with 30x the people? Can the Russian state even survive something like that?

Yes it would, but those able to would eventually leave the country and those peope left will tire out, run out of money and will. I don't know what Putin thinks at this stage, I think he desperately needs a win to restore some credibility back home.

I'd say he's going to invade Moldova in the next few days (once Odessa is taken) and make a big show of how easily they took it to restore morale, and very soon after they're going to plunge in Ukraine's back and make a big push for Kyiev.

I think they might abandon installing a puppet government, but in that case they will bring devastation to Ukraine and keep the whole Black Sea coast, and just let Ucraine fester.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#754

Post by def_true_false »

gojomo wrote: post #718
def_true_false wrote: post #659

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You massively underestimate the complexity required of any such conspiracy. NATO has 30 member states, EU has 27 member states. Most have leaders who can not ignore domestic public opinion and they almost never agree on anything. Some have leadership positions with more ceremonial role, who nevertheless have access to classified material and/or are formally the commander of the armed forces. The likelihood that even…

As far as I can tell, none of Germany, France, or Italy – key countries who'd seemed a bit squishy – have 'eurosceptic' leaders. And I'm not alleging any "secret plan" requiring coordination – some "conspiracy" to hide the certainty of a stronger response – just the normal duplicity & halfheartedness & wishful-thinking of politicians, which you allude to. That stronger pre-invasion deterrence wasn't popular in "domes…

Yes, I literally think that. It's not a coincidence that some of the claimed sanctions or support for Ukraine had to be walked back (jets) -- it's a direct consequence of lacking preparation and coordination.

One example of something that wasn't prepackaged or prepared in any way: There are reports that only Lindner and Scholz knew about the 100bn EUR fund beforehand, the rest were surprised.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#755

Post by JohnTHaller »

suddenexample wrote: post #709
JohnTHaller wrote: post #661

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never heard it before and I watch Rick and Morty.

This is the funniest comment I've ever seen on HN, I snorted

I debated deleting it as it's more of a reddit sort of comment, but I like adding a bit of lightness to HN here and there.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#756

Post by oh_sigh »

cycomanic wrote: post #717
oh_sigh wrote: post #502

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have a theory to explain a set of facts, pointing to the set of facts as an implicit justification for your theory does not logically follow. Maybe Westerners care more about the Ukrainian situation because Ukraine was by and large a peaceful, lawful country until the war started. Do you think the western response would have been a little different if there was a pre-existing civil war in Ukraine, and Russia s…

I don't know how to say this nicely, but you seem not to have been paying attention. There was a pre-existing war happening. Russia annexed the Krim in 2014 and there have been skirmishes in the separatists areas ever since. Also do tell what was the existing civil war in Iraq? The guardian had an article about some of the comments made by journalist and politicians and there is no other way then to say they are raci…

How was the conflict between Ukraine and Russia playing out before 2 weeks ago? How was the conflict in Syria before US/Russia involvement? Would you call them comparable?

If Westerners only care about blonde hair blue eyed people, why did no one care about the Ukrainian war before 2 weeks ago?

Your link has, I think, 4 people who make a claim about why the West cares about the war. Is there a reason you put so much weight on those 4 people, but not on the thousands of other journalists covering the situation who aren't making those claims? Did you know a single one of those people before hearing their coverage of the war?

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#757

Post by jeffreyrogers »

Banana699 wrote: post #260
jeffreyrogers wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been true literally since written records of conflict have been kept. Look at the Punic Wars vs. the Peloponnesian War for example. Look at the Japanese in the Warring States vs. Japanese in China in the 1930s. Even in European history it is true. Compare the attitudes of the English towards the Germans in WWI vs in WWII. (Edit: or as a sibling comment notes, the behavior of the Germans on the different fronts).…

>Look at the Punic Wars vs. the Peloponnesian War for example Not sure how this supports your thesis. Are you trying to say that the punic wars was more devastating/brutal than the Peloponnesian because the first had people of different races fighting while the second had only Greeks fighting amongst themselves ? there are several problems with this : - We have no estimates of the casualties on both sides of both con…

> This is really comparing apples and oranges, those two wars are about 5-6 centuries apart, whatever you're comparing as proxy for 'brutal' or 'destructive' is very much confounded by technological advances in warfare.

I'm not going to reply line by line to your other points. Though I disagree with your interpretation of my argument it's clear we aren't going to reach agreement there, but this statement is just wrong. Genocide has occurred throughout history, including at times prior to and contemporary with the warring states period. Technology has nothing to do with it. For example the Dzungar's in China in the 1700s. More recently the Rwandan genocide was carried out with primitive weapons. There are numerous other examples.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#758

Post by AlwaysRock »

platinumrad wrote: post #77
AlwaysRock wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have been bombing cities. I don't think they are trying to limit casualties.

Without minimizing the awfulness of this invasion and the fact that it must be condemned, it is not nearly as brutal as Russian operations in Chechnya and Syria or the US-led coalition invasion of Iraq, likely because Ukranians are not nearly as much of a racial or cultural other to Russians as Chechens or Syrians. The greater ability of Ukrainians to gain coverage in both traditional and social media may also be a f…

Yes. What the USA does to other countries is atrocious. It's likely the reason the USAs damage is worst is that we have far superior equipment to do damage. It's horrible and disgusting. But what does it have to do with what is happening in the Ukraine right now?

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#759

Post by AlwaysRock »

megous wrote: post #532
999900000999 wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for articulating this better than I could. You had a CBS* commentator straight up saying this is different than Middle East wars since Kyiv is a " civilized city". That said, I think much of Russia's restraint is due to their end goal. Ukraine's Russian backed president was outted in a coup back in 2014. The new pro West leadership decided to go dancing with John McCain. This entire conflict could of been a…

> You had a CBS* commentator straight up saying this is different than Middle East wars since Kyiv is a " civilized city". Syrian cities were civilized, too.

That is the point of the comment.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#760

Post by IMSAI8080 »

stjohnswarts wrote: post #570
IMSAI8080 wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Spacecraft often use stars to orient themselves. The Voyager spacecraft have star trackers to keep the antenna pointing at Earth. They look for the Canopus star.

Don't they need more than 1 star to get an orientation? I mean other than brightness 1 star doesn't give you a lot of information?

Yes, I think the tracker also uses the sun as I remember reading.
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