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Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

telegraph.co.uk

751–760 of 833 posts

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#751
post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's probably true, but constant suspicious behavior shouldn't normalize behaving suspiciously.

It is really weird how HN talks about this in comparison to similar topics. For example, this is the exact same logic that leads people to believe that encrypting data or using Tor is evidence of someone trying to hide criminal behavior. Almost everyone here would object to that type of thinking, but when it comes to China it suddenly becomes "Why would they object to transparency unless they had something to hide?".

Yes, we hold states to a higher standard than individuals.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#752

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is nonsense. You can't do comparisons like that. For example, mask mandates tend to get imposed when cases are rising, and removed when they fall. To say they have no effect on cases is to confuse cause and effect. The conspiracy site you link to has no interest in looking at the data dispassionately. There's a reason why we have data science and peer review to investigate these things.

The site I link to isn't a "conspiracy site", it's a blog written by a guy who does lots of data analysis. Please, have you not learned yet that this word is meaningless anyway? There are lots of cases where mask mandates were not added and removed at the times you claim, which were geographically next to each other, and in which there was no observed difference. There are lots of cases where mask mandates were added…

> The site I link to isn't a "conspiracy site", it's a blog written by a guy who does lots of data analysis.

Those aren't mutually exclusive. Anyone can throw some graphs together on a blog. Why should we trust him over papers that have been peer reviewed by experts in their fields?

It's a series of cherry-picked comparisons. Why is he comparing Germany to Sweden? They don't even share a border. Why not UK to France or Peru to Ecuador? Did he pick those countries because it happens to support his theory?

We don't have to wonder, because he admits it: "Perhaps the clearest example of the delusional political obsession with pretending masks matter is found in Southern California." Oh, great. So why are you showing us the "clearest examples"? Why not a comparison of the other places which aren't as "clear"? How can we determine if it's statistically significant if it's not a systematic study?

There are lots of other problems with that page. He's a crank.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#753
post #417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Evidence? The hypothesis of the article is that certain scientists did believe a lab leak was likely, but hid their views. The article provides ample evidence for this. If you also want it to conclusively prove the lab leak hypothesis in the same breath then I'd say your expectations are too high. Better publications have tackled the subject anyway: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-...

I too would like to see some evidence for the hypothesis that hn is "the smartest forum on the web".

Between public “popular” forums, it very well might be. What alternatives are there? I don’t know any big subreddit that has as smart people. Lesswrong has more intelligent people (probably), but it’s a much narrower, more technical forum.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#754

I feel like it was impossible to really deal with this debate responsibly, what with the current state of society and social media where everyone has figured out how to weaponize false information, before we as a society have figured out how to really deal with it. Even now it seems like everyone wants to elide the massive differences between "accidental lab leak" and "deliberate lab leak". Even now the common phrase…

In the beginning I really thought the Trump white house would claim a biological warfare attack just so conservative americans would follow the health guidelines instead of the fuck you I won't do what you tell me posturing.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#755

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find that behaviour more dangerous than any other anti-science or anti-vax movements. That behaviour degrades the public trust in institutions, in science and in scientists. It will breed even more anti-science and anti-vax people for years to come.

Can we stop with the anti-vax crap? I haven't met a single person who is hesitant of traditional vaccines. The anti-vaxxer crowd is still as small as it once was, loonies in Oregon and other places that cause an occasional Measles outbreak. Being hesitant of unknown longterm effects of mRNA vaccines is reasonable and is not "anti-science" or "anti-vax". But yes, lying about what you think caused millions of deaths be…

I have seen (IRL) people who were not “anti-vax” previously, but don’t want a Covid vaccine (mRNA or not).

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#756
post #719

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was a genetic engineer for two decades: - Clear signs of molecular manipulation in the sars-cov-2 sequence. There are none. Almost all of the alleged manipulations would have left unmistakeable, damning evidence in a recognizable vector. The only remotely interesting thing at all in the sequence is the furin site, but plenty of coronaviruses have those, and it just likely indicates selection/propagation in a second…

I don't necessarily agree with the lab leak hypothesis but your arguments have some flaws. Hypothetically a lab worker could have been infected by careless handling of a lab animal rather than a swab. As I'm sure you're aware, viruses can be passaged through transgenic animals as part of gain-of-function research. There is no reliable evidence that the bat or pangolin species suspected to be the source of zoonotic tr…

All it would take is a bat taking a dump on a pigsty and then the unlucky pig that now happens to be infected being taken to the market. Which is the most likely backstory of several other bat-to-intermediary-to-human viral jumps. And if you're unlucky the intermediary species doesn't just carry the virus but serves as an amplifier. Hendra for instance.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#757
post #691
post #300

It’s hard to believe how bad this is. Not the lab leak theory itself, but the fact that scientists found it plausible that a scientific mistake released an epidemic which killed 20m people – and decided they should cover this up because “talking about it might harm science“. This is truly scandalous, and I don’t see how those people can remain in their post.

...but who is to blame here? Are the scientists who were in fear of harassment, intimidation, and career destruction to blame? ...or is it the institutions that facilitate that sort of punishment. I would think twice about punishing victims.

… With this logic, Hitler is also a victim.

We should punish this people by destroying their careers now, so that the incentives are aligned.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#758

I have mixed feelings about this, and I certainly think it’s not as clear cut as HN is converging on, although I share the same instincts. On the one hand, yes, science should be completely open and unhindered by geopolitics. But recall that Trump was in the White House at the time. We are a community of generally highly educated nerds with a strong understanding of science and engineering. We understand that all lab…

You know who else brings up the boogiemen every time they are caught red-handed? The Islamic Republic of Iran. Why, they are currently saying in their own media that they hitting the Ukrainian airplane with missiles was a heroic act that avoided a potential war with Trump.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#759
Some believe that Omicron (yes, the mutation) may be a leak from a lab that was doing research on the original version of Covid.

https://bprice.substack.com/p/lab-leak-20

It's an interesting read. Author puts forward a few arguments for why this may be the case (more research needed, of course, but pretty compelling in my view).

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#760

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The site I link to isn't a "conspiracy site", it's a blog written by a guy who does lots of data analysis. Please, have you not learned yet that this word is meaningless anyway? There are lots of cases where mask mandates were not added and removed at the times you claim, which were geographically next to each other, and in which there was no observed difference. There are lots of cases where mask mandates were added…

> The site I link to isn't a "conspiracy site", it's a blog written by a guy who does lots of data analysis. Those aren't mutually exclusive. Anyone can throw some graphs together on a blog. Why should we trust him over papers that have been peer reviewed by experts in their fields? It's a series of cherry-picked comparisons. Why is he comparing Germany to Sweden? They don't even share a border. Why not UK to France…

Because the experts aren't really experts and peer review is useless? They routinely publish totally unscientific stuff and peer reviewers don't care, I can list 5 examples off the top of my head.

Why compare Germany and Sweden - because their case curves are virtually the same despite wildly different levels of masking. Because providing counter-examples is how you disprove a hypothesis.

Remember that he doesn't actually need to do lots of statistical analysis of this because mask theory is a total one. It doesn't come with caveats like "sometimes in some countries it works and others it doesn't for ", it doesn't even come with effectiveness numbers. It's just masks=less COVID. To disprove a theory this simple you only need one counter example. But this guy shows lots. He makes a big pile of graphs not because it's actually necessary to prove the point, but to try and ram it home to people who are in denial about it. There isn't just one counter example, there are a huge number of counter examples, and any one of them is sufficient to invalidate "masks = universal and effective COVID countermeasure" as a belief. That actually is science!

If mask mandate proponents were proposing a very subtle and complex effect where it was expected that sometimes there'd be no impact etc, then yes, the counter-argument would need to be correspondingly complex in return. That isn't the case here though.

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