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US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

cnn.com

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Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#741

Post by acdha »

b0rtb0rt wrote: post #738
HDThoreaun wrote: post #734

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incentivizes him to take on more risk to ensure mission success. When someone bets 32k that a political opponent of the US is going to be kidnapped I think its fair to say some will assume it was placed by an insider.

he was more incentivized for the mission to succeed? how horrible!

He was incentivized to win the bet. The military does not want people to have outside loyalties because that creates problems any time they’re not perfectly aligned – for example, if they had orders to minimize team or civilian casualties you don’t want this guy starting a messy firefight because he’s thinking the target is getting away and willing to risk someone else’s lives for half a million dollars.

You also have to think about leaning information: if people do this, bodyguards around the world are going to monitor betting markets looking for unexplained changes. The military doesn’t like anything which can leak timing information since that increases the risk of a mission failing.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#742

Post by CodeMage »

scoofy wrote: post #739
CodeMage wrote: post #737

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have to ask: did you read what I wrote before you replied to me? I know the question might come across as an attack, but it's not. I'm genuinely curious about what process lead to your comment being a reply to mine, when mine explicitly states the following: > Those people you are replying to are not saying that this soldier should get away with his corruption because more powerful people are getting away with thei…

I did read it. Your point is effectively irrelevant. It means the same thing. Creating an "urgency chain" is effectively the same thing as justifying behavior. It's like saying "we shouldn't worry about enforcing traffic laws because we need to use our resources to bring war criminals to justice" when the reason where not bringing war criminals to justice isn't for lack of concern, it's just that we have no coercive…

> It's like saying "we shouldn't worry about enforcing traffic laws because we need to use our resources to bring war criminals to justice"

It most definitely isn't. At no point did anyone in this discussion say "we shouldn't worry about small time corruption". In fact, I explicitly said the opposite. And then I highlighted it after you essentially accused me of doing so, as you're doing again.

> Creating an "urgency chain" is effectively the same thing as justifying behavior.

No, it's not. No one is "creating" an "urgency chain". Justice isn't binary. Things can be more or less just, they're not either perfectly just or completely unjust with nothing in between. Similarly, different people have different levels of impact. That's the definition of power in this context: the level of impact your actions have. No one is "creating" these concepts out of thin air.

What is happening here is that people are complaining about injustice and other people -- like you and the person I initially replied to -- are trying to delegitimize those complaints by stating that "all corruption is bad".

Let me repeat this, in case it got lost despite earlier repetitions: yes, we all know that "all corruption is bad". Just like we all know that "all lives matter", but pointing out that banality only got popular after the "black lives matter" slogan surfaced in response to a systemic injustice against African Americans.

You're doing the same kind of thing here.

> Caring about prioritizing things where we do not have coercive power is pointless.

On the contrary. If you always give up on caring because you don't have coercive power, you will never rectify injustices caused by imbalance of coercive power.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#743

Post by alistairSH »

majormajor wrote: post #693
alistairSH wrote: post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except in the United States it is true. Something like 80% of new military recruits come from military families (parent, sibling, uncle/aunt, or grandparent). Similarly over the last few decades the number of medical doctors who have immediate family who are also doctors has grown. Social and economic class in the US is increasingly set in stone and hereditary.

>(parent, sibling, uncle/aunt, or grandparent) That's a pretty wide net. What percentage of the total population has a military connection in that many degrees?

Obv not a great sample, but within my peer group, none have parents or siblings. I have an uncle. Grandparent is a weird one - for anybody born in the 70s as I was, it’s almost a given to have a grandparent or four who served. Being European, all of mine served at the tail end of WWII or immediate aftermath.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#744

Post by jjk166 »

delecti wrote: post #428
jjk166 wrote: post #410

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’d argue that the level of corruption we’re seeing, not just in the USA but all over the Western world, hasn’t risen to a level that warrants revolutionary action. What level of corruption would warrant revolutionary action? How much more corrupt can you get than sending forces into combat in a war of choice that disrupts the global economy and kills thousands to win a bet on a crypto platform and shift the news c…

I doubt they did it for the purpose of crypto bets, that was just a side benefit. They did it because Israel owns our government, and this is the first time we've had a president far enough out of touch with reality to not push back. Age limits (for Congress/Judiciary/Presidency) would be a much more targeted fix. Past ~75 you just don't have enough years left to be at risk of being affected by the things you're impl…

> They did it because Israel owns our government

Yeah I don't really see how that is an argument that current corruption isn't too extreme.

> Age limits (for Congress/Judiciary/Presidency) would be a much more targeted fix.

Would it? There are plenty of corrupt people in office younger than 75, to say nothing of the countless unelected people in close proximity to power. Only 42 out of 535 members of congress are over 75. On the supreme court, Alito only turned 76 3 weeks ago, and the only other justice over that threshold is Thomas who is 77. Trump was under 75 for his entire first term. Biden, Trump, and Reagan are the only presidents who have ever been in office over the age of 75. Such an age limit would do basically nothing to change the composition of government. While there may be compelling reasons for such an age limit like ensuring mental acuity, it is not a remedy for corruption.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#745

Post by jjk166 »

esseph wrote: post #390
jjk166 wrote: post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People with guns don't stand much of a chance against people with armies. Sure armies can turn on an individual, but that just means that particular individual has lost power, and that power has been transferred to whatever new individual commands the loyalty of the many. It's not imaginary, it's emergent.

People vastly overestimate the power of armies. Trump has gotten shot once, almost twice. Shinzo Abe got murked by some pipes from the hardware store.

And how are the people who shot these politicians doing now? How about the US and Japanese governments? Clearly shooting a politician doesn't mean either that you gain their power or that the power structure they led evaporates.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#746

Post by ATMLOTTOBEER »

KolmogorovComp wrote: post #663

I’ve never understood why insider insight was forbidden, the point of prediction market is betting on the outcome based on information you have. Is that ‘fair’ for everyone? No! Because no everyone has access to the same level of information. But no one forces you to bet either.

Knower. Thank you. The point of all markets is to aggregate information.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#747

Post by jjk166 »

Pay08 wrote: post #507
jjk166 wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> yes actual revolution would be brutal, and could/would create a much worse daily life for the non-elites. 50% of revolutions in the past 200 years have been non-violent, and the non-violent ones have a much higher success rate. Even for violent revolutions, most aren't brutal. When there is brutality, it's usually because the pre-existing conditions were already brutal.

That comes with the caveat that most revolutions happen against failed states. Those pretty much don't get the chance to be violent.

There's not much reason to replace good functioning governments. There are some examples, although typically they are foreign-backed regime changes masquerading as revolutions.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#748

Post by themafia »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #734
themafia wrote: post #719

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless someone knows the bets are placed by an insider how does this create any sort of risk?

Incentivizes him to take on more risk to ensure mission success. When someone bets 32k that a political opponent of the US is going to be kidnapped I think its fair to say some will assume it was placed by an insider.

What exactly would that look like from the position of an individual low rank unit? What would $32k of risk look like on a foreign battle field? I'm struggling to understand this prerogative.

What would be far larger source of risk is if they bet _against_ the operation and then personally sabotaged it. That's far more understandable but it's not what happened here.

It apparently and sadly needs to be said on Hacker News, I'm not defending him, and he should be punished, but I genuinely can't apprehend the risk assessment logic here.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#749

Post by HDThoreaun »

themafia wrote: post #748
HDThoreaun wrote: post #734

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incentivizes him to take on more risk to ensure mission success. When someone bets 32k that a political opponent of the US is going to be kidnapped I think its fair to say some will assume it was placed by an insider.

What exactly would that look like from the position of an individual low rank unit? What would $32k of risk look like on a foreign battle field? I'm struggling to understand this prerogative. What would be far larger source of risk is if they bet _against_ the operation and then personally sabotaged it. That's far more understandable but it's not what happened here. It apparently and sadly needs to be said on Hacker…

Easy to think of a scenario where he should stand down but instead continues with the mission, risking the lives of his team mates, or maybe civilians.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#750

Post by mizzao »

themafia wrote: post #748
HDThoreaun wrote: post #734

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incentivizes him to take on more risk to ensure mission success. When someone bets 32k that a political opponent of the US is going to be kidnapped I think its fair to say some will assume it was placed by an insider.

What exactly would that look like from the position of an individual low rank unit? What would $32k of risk look like on a foreign battle field? I'm struggling to understand this prerogative. What would be far larger source of risk is if they bet _against_ the operation and then personally sabotaged it. That's far more understandable but it's not what happened here. It apparently and sadly needs to be said on Hacker…

He's a master sergeant, once of the highest enlisted ranks, involved in planning the mission. Not low rank at all.
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