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The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

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Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#741

Post by Dylan16807 »

famouswaffles wrote: post #681
Dylan16807 wrote: post #569

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't have a model for how an LLM that doesn't exist will respond to a specific query. That's different from lacking insight at all. For an LLM that exists it's still hard to interpret but it's very clear what is actually happening. That's better than you often get with quantum physics when there's a bunch of particles and you can't even get a good answer for the math. And even for potential LLMs, there are some p…

>We don't have a model for how an LLM that doesn't exist will respond to a specific query. We don't have a model for a LLM that does exist will respond to a specific query either. >For an LLM that exists it's still hard to interpret but it's very clear what is actually happening. No, it's not and I'm getting tired of explaining this. If you think it is, write your paper and get very rich. >That's better than you ofte…

> We don't have a model for a LLM that does exist will respond to a specific query either.

Yes we do... It's math, you can calculate it.

> No, it's not and I'm getting tired of explaining this. If you think it is, write your paper and get very rich.

Why would I get rich for explaining how to do math?

> You clearly don't understand any of this.

Could you be more specific?

Quantum physics is stupidly hard to calculate when you approach realistic situations.

A real LLM takes a GPU a fraction of a second.

They're both hard to interpret, please realize I'm agreeing that LLMs are hard to interpret. But they're easier than QM on some other fronts.

And mentioning copenhagen or many-worlds doesn't show that quantum mechanics are easy to interpret, that's about as useful as saying an LLM works like neuron activation.

> Oh really ? Lol

Here's one of many posts about it. https://cameronrwolfe.substack.com/p/llm-scaling-laws

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#742

Post by nandomrumber »

duskdozer wrote: post #625
nandomrumber wrote: post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Combined with the quirk in Australia’s preferential voting system that enable a government to form despite 65% of voters having voted 1 for something else. As a result, Australia tends to end up with governments formed by the runner up, because no one party actually ‘won’ as such.

I can think of an exaggerated scenario though in which that sounds reasonable depending on the goal: say preferences are 1 (low) to 5 (high). suppose 65% of the population ranked candidate A at 5 and B at 4, and the other 35% ranked A at 1 and B at 5. the majority doesn't get their favorite choice, but they do get an outcome they're happy with, and the minority doesn't have a horrible outcome. Exaggerated, but I don'…

Absolutely, of course there are secenarios where it can work well.

Where it fails is when one major party is saying: we will drive up energy prices with Net Zero ideology, make housing unaffordable, import foreigners at a ratio of 5 to 1 local births…

And that other party is offering the same to a higher degree.

There are other options. Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party is polling strongly. Let’s see if that results in actual votes.

South Australian state election coming up 21st March this year - I’m encouraging everyone I know who lives there to at least listen to Michelle Grattan podcast.

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/politics-with-michelle...

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#743

Post by notahacker »

nine_k wrote: post #317
stoneforger wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like a false dichotomy. NASA got all these different subcontractors to feed, in all these different states and they explicitly gutted MOL and dynasoar and all the air force projects that needed weird orbits and reentry trajectories so the space shuttle became a huge compromise. Perverse incentives and all that. It's not state organizations per se but rather non-profits that need to have a clear goal that creat…

But DoD with its weird requirements, and the Congress with its power to finance the project and the desire to bring jobs from it to every state, and the rules of contracting that NASA must follow, are all also part of the state, the way the state ultimately works.

Development contracts for early SpaceX is also an example of NASA contracting rules in action though.

VC has failure as well as successes. State funding is no different.

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#745

Post by AndrewKemendo »

tartoran wrote: post #739
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The goal is to eliminate humans as the primary actors on the planet entirely At least that’s my personal goal If we get to the point where I can go through my life and never interact with another human again, and work with a bunch of machines and robots to do science and experiments and build things to explore our world and make my life easier and safer and healthier and more sustainable, I would be absolutely thrill…

>The goal is to eliminate humans as the primary actors on the planet entirely At least that’s my personal goal and another of your post states > The fundamental unit of society …the human… is at its core fundamentally incapable of coordinating at the scale necessary to do this correctly You seem to contradict yourself if not entirely confused.

What’s the contradiction?

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#746

Post by tartoran »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #745
tartoran wrote: post #739

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The goal is to eliminate humans as the primary actors on the planet entirely At least that’s my personal goal and another of your post states > The fundamental unit of society …the human… is at its core fundamentally incapable of coordinating at the scale necessary to do this correctly You seem to contradict yourself if not entirely confused.

What’s the contradiction?

If you're not human there's no contradiction. But if you are I see a contradiction right there.

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#747

Post by njarboe »

majormajor wrote: post #552
ElevenLathe wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMO this is a symptom of the falling rate of profit, especially in the developed world. If truly productivity enhancing investment is effectively dead (or, equivalently, there is so much paper wealth chasing a withering set of profitable opportunities for investment), then capital's only game is to chase high valuations backed by future profits, which means playing the Keynesian beauty contest for keeps. This in turn…

>If truly productivity enhancing investment is effectively dead (or, equivalently, there is so much paper wealth chasing a withering set of profitable opportunities for investment), then capital's only game is to chase high valuations backed by future profits, which means playing the Keynesian beauty contest for keeps. What if profit is dead because wealth is all concentrating in people who don't need it from a margi…

"in people who don't need it from a marginal consumption standpoint".

We need the rich to spend more money. There are plenty of cool ways to do this. Build a mile high pyramid on a Nevadan playa, a canal to the Sea of Cortez to re-flood the Salton Sea, humans on other planets, new city states a la Praxis, interstellar probes, etc.

Some billionaires are doing some of these things. Hope more do in the future.

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#748

Post by stronglikedan »

atomic128 wrote: post #51

Once men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them. ... Thou shalt not make a machine in the likeness of a human mind. -- Frank Herbert, Dune You won't read, except the output of your LLM. You won't write, except prompts for your LLM. Why write code or prose when the machine can write it for you? You won't think or…

> You won't read, except the output of your LLM. > You won't write, except prompts for your LLM. Why write code or prose when the machine can write it for you? > You won't think or analyze or understand. The LLM will do that.

Sounds great! I'll finally have time to relax! Bring it on...

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#749

Post by GorbachevyChase »

atomic128 wrote: post #51

Once men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them. ... Thou shalt not make a machine in the likeness of a human mind. -- Frank Herbert, Dune You won't read, except the output of your LLM. You won't write, except prompts for your LLM. Why write code or prose when the machine can write it for you? You won't think or…

Reddit already exists, my dude.
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